2 ms·

I'm talking about the relationship between monkeypox and smallpox, vs the relationship between 2022's influenza and the spanish flu. These are both respectiv

I'm talking about the relationship between monkeypox and smallpox, vs the relationship between 2022's influenza and the spanish flu. These are both respectively in the same virus families. No? Smallpox is concerning, monkeypox as it is today isn't very concerning. If I understand the comments in this thread, the great concern is that monkeypox could become something quite deadly like smallpox was. Is that risk substantially greater than the risk of a new influenza that rips through the population like the Spanish Flu once did?

woodruffw 4y ago
These are questions for your public health officials, not me. I’m merely invested in correcting your previously incorrect statements; any questions of epidemiology are best left to them. Presuming that you’re interested in their answers, of course.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  The other note I'd make is industrial vaccination capacity. We've gotten pretty damn good at identifying, synthesizing, manufacturing, and distributing influenza vaccines at scale on a yearly basis. If a deadly influenza strain is in our future, we're decently prepared. On the other hand, we haven't manufactured or administered human pox vaccinations at scale in... 50 years?
  - Izkata 4y ago
    Flu shot effectiveness averages around 35-40%. It used to be higher on average and has been dropping over the past decade.
lamontcg 4y ago
Endemic seasonal influenza didn't just recently acquire the ability to jump to humans. Even considering the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the H1 protein is descended from the human strain which circulated in 1918-1957 and there was still enough immunity in the human race in 2009 to make that virus not that novel. This monkeypox virus is brand new to the human immune system.
sterlind 4y ago
We understand how the flu behaves. We've had >100 years of flus and Spanish Flu only happened once. The only experience we have with poxes in humans is smallpox and monkeypox. Smallpox was not a good time. Past monkeypox outbreaks have killed 5%. This one is behaving very differently, but we don't know if it's going to revert to killing people! It has in the past, like every outbreak, so it's a rational worry.

woodruffw 4y ago

These are questions for your public health officials, not me. I’m merely invested in correcting your previously incorrect statements; any questions of epidemiology are best left to them. Presuming that you’re interested in their answers, of course.

ethbr0 4y ago
The other note I'd make is industrial vaccination capacity. We've gotten pretty damn good at identifying, synthesizing, manufacturing, and distributing influenza vaccines at scale on a yearly basis. If a deadly influenza strain is in our future, we're decently prepared. On the other hand, we haven't manufactured or administered human pox vaccinations at scale in... 50 years?
- Izkata 4y ago
  Flu shot effectiveness averages around 35-40%. It used to be higher on average and has been dropping over the past decade.

lamontcg 4y ago

Endemic seasonal influenza didn't just recently acquire the ability to jump to humans. Even considering the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the H1 protein is descended from the human strain which circulated in 1918-1957 and there was still enough immunity in the human race in 2009 to make that virus not that novel. This monkeypox virus is brand new to the human immune system.

sterlind 4y ago

We understand how the flu behaves. We've had >100 years of flus and Spanish Flu only happened once. The only experience we have with poxes in humans is smallpox and monkeypox. Smallpox was not a good time. Past monkeypox outbreaks have killed 5%. This one is behaving very differently, but we don't know if it's going to revert to killing people! It has in the past, like every outbreak, so it's a rational worry.