I'm not sure why anyone is looking to the Fed, of all organizations, to telegraph a recession. Out of all the possible announcements they could make, even if t

I'm not sure why anyone is looking to the Fed, of all organizations, to telegraph a recession. Out of all the possible announcements they could make, even if they were 100% certain the economy is headed for a downturn, the absolute worst would be "We expect a recession in the next 6 months." Part of the Fed's job is to keep the economy balanced, and a huge part of that job is messaging and weighing the likely effect of the message vs the desired effect the Fed wants. So they're not in the business of lying... but they're also not in the business of loudly trumpeting pessimism from the rooftops.