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Survivorship bias. Elon has led many failed companies, success doesn't imply correlation.

by camdat 4y ago

WalterBright 4y ago
I'm sure Michael Jordan has missed many shots at the basket, too.
- camdat 4y ago
  This is a great analogy. Would you say that Michael Jordan is only successful because of the owner of the team he played for?
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    Jordan was successful on more than one team. Other players on the same team were not remotely as successful.
    - camdat 4y ago
      Awesome, so we agree that Elon isn't attributable for the success of Tesla. The owner of the team matters less to the success of the team than the participants, as is easily proven by the argument you have just made. If Elon had consistently led successful teams, as Jordan has, then the correlationary argument would be more convincing. Since he has led a mix of failures and successes, the likely indicator is the teams that worked for him, not his own ability.
      - WalterBright 4y ago
        The number of people who have led two independent companies to great success is exceedingly rare. The only other one I can think of is Steve Jobs, who did it three times. > Since he has led a mix of failures and successes, the likely indicator is the teams that worked for him, not his own ability. Or far more likely, he knows how to assemble a team that can deliver, knows how to motivate it to succeed, and knows how to get financing for it. Which is an essential skill for an entrepreneur.
bell-cot 4y ago
Okay...now assume that I took Probability 101 as an undergrad, got an B+, and kept the textbook. If we knew how many companies Elan has lead, and the percentage of barely-founded little companies from ~2003 which have been as successful as SpaceX and Tesla over the past 2 decades, then we could perform the calculations, and see what the odds actually are on Elan hitting two such jackpots by random chance & survivorship. Elan's Wikipedia entry only has him leading ~10 companies. If you could name a few hundred more, that would help your case...
- camdat 4y ago
  So a person that wins the lottery twice is good at the lottery? You need to make a causational argument, and so far everyone in this thread has replied with a correlationary argument.

Survivorship bias. Elon has led many failed companies, success doesn't imply correlation.

by camdat 4y ago

Survivorship bias. Elon has led many failed companies, success doesn't imply correlation.

WalterBright 4y ago

I'm sure Michael Jordan has missed many shots at the basket, too.

camdat 4y ago
This is a great analogy. Would you say that Michael Jordan is only successful because of the owner of the team he played for?
- WalterBright 4y ago
  Jordan was successful on more than one team. Other players on the same team were not remotely as successful.
  - camdat 4y ago
    Awesome, so we agree that Elon isn't attributable for the success of Tesla. The owner of the team matters less to the success of the team than the participants, as is easily proven by the argument you have just made. If Elon had consistently led successful teams, as Jordan has, then the correlationary argument would be more convincing. Since he has led a mix of failures and successes, the likely indicator is the teams that worked for him, not his own ability.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      The number of people who have led two independent companies to great success is exceedingly rare. The only other one I can think of is Steve Jobs, who did it three times. > Since he has led a mix of failures and successes, the likely indicator is the teams that worked for him, not his own ability. Or far more likely, he knows how to assemble a team that can deliver, knows how to motivate it to succeed, and knows how to get financing for it. Which is an essential skill for an entrepreneur.

bell-cot 4y ago

Okay...now assume that I took Probability 101 as an undergrad, got an B+, and kept the textbook. If we knew how many companies Elan has lead, and the percentage of barely-founded little companies from ~2003 which have been as successful as SpaceX and Tesla over the past 2 decades, then we could perform the calculations, and see what the odds actually are on Elan hitting two such jackpots by random chance & survivorship. Elan's Wikipedia entry only has him leading ~10 companies. If you could name a few hundred more, that would help your case...

camdat 4y ago
So a person that wins the lottery twice is good at the lottery? You need to make a causational argument, and so far everyone in this thread has replied with a correlationary argument.