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OK, I'll humour you for a minute since I'm waiting for CI... (I am from London and live in the US, and do not agree it is more multicultural, but OK, whatever).
by jen20 4y ago
OK, I'll humour you for a minute since I'm waiting for CI... (I am from London and live in the US, and do not agree it is more multicultural, but OK, whatever).
Let's take a single state: Texas. Population in 2017 was 28.29 million. Per the CDC [1], there were 3513 gun deaths in Texas that year. I believe this includes suicides, so let's take a conservative rate here and assume that 40% were homicides and 60% were suicide (I believe that this is over-estimating suicide).
So, 1405 gun-related homicides in Texas that year. But, Texas only has around half the population of England and Wales. I'm sure you can do the rest of the math yourself.
But, maybe Texas isn't to your liking because it's so big by land area - so let's also look at Alabama, which is approximately the same size. 1124 gun related deaths there per [1] in 2017, and conservatively assuming 40% of those were homicides, that is approximately 450. However, the population of Alabama was less than _just Greater London_ - only 4.87 million people.
But, maybe Alabama isn't to your liking either because it's conservative. So let's look at New Jersey - only just larger than Wales by land area, and substantially smaller than England, but trending "liberal" by US standards.
In NJ, there were 478 firearm-related deaths in 2017. Again if we conservatively assume 40% homicide, that's around 191 - finally a state where the absolute number is less than knife-related deaths in England and Wales! But, one where the population was only 8.8 million...
None of these include knife crime in the US, either. While you can make all the excuses you like for this, the numbers don't look very good regardless of how you cut (or shoot) it.
[1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/...
- lostlogin 4y agoIt’s the cultural angle the troubles me more. The US has more cultures so they fight. That doesn’t seem a good argument. I’m a bit baffled by the way you calculate gun murders. You get a number of gun deaths and guess the number that were murders. I tried searching and could only find the combined value that you have used. Why is this?
- jen20 4y agoI fundamentally disagree with your analysis - most areas of the US are not remotely diverse in culture compared to London. The way I estimated gun murders was by taking a guess at around 40%, on the basis that conservatives (likely to be pro-gun) claim that 6 in 10 gun deaths are suicides, and they likely over-count. By a "combined" value do you mean for England and Wales (which is because that is the reporting authority), or for gun deaths overall (which is because that is what is reported by the CDC - I'm sure this is broken down elsewhere but I only had a few minutes)?
- lostlogin 4y agoI'm in agreement with you and am arguing against buscoquadnary's analysis (which you make a good argument against). I don't see that diversity can be blamed for the US murder rate. The combined Texan gun death value you cite is readily found, but I have had trouble finding the number of gun homicides per year, which is puzzling but must have a reason.
- jen20 4y agoAh apologies, I missed that you were a different responder. I don’t understand really why the gun homicide rate does not appear to be available - it’s certainly surprising to me that it’s not easy to find.