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What's most concerning IMHO is that this appears to be from community spread with no known recent travel history (polio apparently incubates in 7-21 days so the
by qbasic_forever 4y ago
What's most concerning IMHO is that this appears to be from community spread with no known recent travel history (polio apparently incubates in 7-21 days so they would have caught it in the last few weeks).
Even more troubling is that they were paralyzed which means they were one of the less than 1% of polio cases that turn into a severe event like being paralyzed. The vast majority of cases are asymptomatic or just give you diarrhea.
How many people could be out in the community and spreading it without anyone knowing?
- jefftk 4y ago> How many people could be out in the community and spreading it without anyone knowing? I wonder whether anyone has checked Rockland county wastewater? This kind of testing recently detected it in London: https://www.science.org/content/article/poliovirus-in-london-sewage-sparks-alarm https://www.science.org/content/article/poliovirus-in-london...
- cies 4y ago
- futureshock 4y agoWow, that’s quite a take. How do you explain the effectiveness of measles and polio vaccines if they were not viral illnesses?
- Jwarder 4y agoI don't want to put works in cies's mouth, but it possible to read the comment in a reasonable way. It is not necessarily a claim that polio isn't real, but rather that patient's signs and symptoms can overlap with other medical issues. Stefan Lanka doesn't pass my sniff test, but reference to him and to test contamination can be read as examples that these sorts of tests are not always clear.
- tekknik 4y ago> but rather that patient's signs and symptoms can overlap with other medical issues This is pretty well true with all illnesses though, so that’s a bad indicator.
- cies 4y agoI found the roll-outs of these vaccines only came when the numbers of sick people were already well on the decline. I think polio is likely related to use of certain --now forbidden-- pesticides.
- futureshock 4y agoAnimal testing played a significant role in development of a Polio vaccine. I understand you are making a point that correlation is not causation, but there are actual animal trials where they purposefully infected monkeys and watched the disease progression. There are plenty of things we may not understand in the world, but we do understand some science well enough to prove beyond reasonable doubt causal relationships in certain kinds of experiment design.
- rgrieselhuber 4y ago> (I'm going to take a lot of karma damage for this, but i believe it has to be said) I don't think you have anything to worry about, HN is well-known to be highly tolerant of a variety and even dissenting opinions.
- _wqdq 4y agoI just want to clarify for my own understanding - are you making an argument that this individual, that has been tested for and is known to have the polio virus in their body (one of the most widely understood viral infections we have), is actually not afflicted with polio because…the symptoms are comparable to other, potentially unknown, diseases or causes? Additionally, are you claiming that virologists, an area of study that has proven, repeatedly (through the very apparent efficacy of countless vaccines for diseases that ravaged humanity for millennia) to be one of the most remarkably successful scientific endeavors in human history, is somehow…not scientifically rigorous? (I’m going to take a lot of karma damage for this, but I believe it has to be said)
- lurquer 4y ago(Meanwhile, on other threads, there are discussions about the lamentable fraud that may have tainted Alzheimer/“brain plaque” research for the past 20 years, another thread about recent studies showing seratonin may have squat to do with depression, and you can always count on occasional thread regarding the Theranos debacle that deluded some very educated people. Greater harm, it seems, comes from lack of skepticism than too much of it.)
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- mrguyorama 4y agoExcept unlike that Alzheimers research, vaccines work. They often work astonishingly well. If you want to pretend viruses don't exist, you need to provide alternative reasons for why these vaccines work so well, and especially now that we have shown mRNA vaccines work, this alternative explanation also has to work in cases where only a tiny subset of that virus exists in the vaccine. Quite simply, not understanding something, or not liking the consequences of it, is not skepticism, it's ignorance. Skepticism requires having good reasons to reject good models/research/outcomes etc. In the Alzheimers case, the reason for skepticism, which many people in the field had, was difficulty reproducing results, and lack of positive outcomes from therapies using that working hypothesis. Blind skepticism makes you beyond stupid, and eventually turns you into an idiot who watches Alex Jones and thinks your own son is a crisis actor
- fifafu 4y agoOh my. Stefan Lanka could keep his money due to a formality. The judges even said that it was clearly proven the measle virus exists.
- tshaddox 4y agoAlso no legitimate method of inquiry works by someone saying "I'll give you a reward if you prove me wrong!" and then having that promise of reward settled in court.
- cies 4y agoWell, it does prove a point. If Lanka said "there is no proof that gravity makes things fall down" he'd loose the 100k. That proof is really well supported by hard evidence. At this point viruses are simply not proven by hard-science and Lanka was made to pay up based on non-hard-science papers, that are now vetted by a court case to be just that: no hard scientific proof.
- cies 4y agoHere's the case: http://lrbw.juris.de/cgi-bin/laender_rechtsprechung/document.py?Gericht=bw&GerichtAuswahl=Oberlandesgerichte&Art=en&sid=46bf3db2df690aba6e4874acafaf45b6&nr=20705&pos=0&anz=1 http://lrbw.juris.de/cgi-bin/laender_rechtsprechung/document... I dont think that counts as "a formality". It simply is not hard-scientifically proven. The measles virus may still exist and make people sick, but to me that is a theory as the proof is still outstanding. > The judges even said that it was clearly proven the measle virus exists. Do you have a source for that?
- jefftk 4y agoMachine translation gives me the following for point 20: "In addition, the submission of a single publication was required, in which both the proof of the existence of the measles virus and the determination of its diameter were provided, so that it was not sufficient if - as advocated by the expert - merely the combination of the scientific statements in the six submitted professional articles prove the existence of the measles virus and at least two of these articles contain sufficient information on the diameter of the measles virus." I would count that as a "formality": the bet required the proof to be in a single publication, but as it was instead split across several it didn't count. On the latter question the machine-translated text is hard enough to read that I can't reliably tell what the defendant is claiming and what the court is declaring, but I think maybe the court is saying they're not convinced the submitted papers constitute proof?
- voz_ 4y agoAbsolutely loony take. How does an engineer get like this?
- Aperocky 4y agoIt's some interesting psychology. I've had discussion with a guy in lab of a top university and they believed 911 was an inside job. steel beams and all that. It doesn't seem to correlate to technical ability, there are something in psychology that draws a certain type of people towards conspiracy and in which they go into a mental state where normal explanations are removed from their logic and they go seek outlandish explanations or slightly hard to explain things and turn a twist into it. I don't understand why but I think a pretty decent amount of people subscribe to this kind of thinking. Neurology researchers here, please give us answers.
- galangalalgol 4y agoNot a neurology researcher, but always seems to be people with really good pattern recognition intell. They connect dots well, blessing and curse etc.
- rjbwork 4y agoIndeed. As someone with experience of extreme manic psychosis, it is the pattern recognition/dot connection algorithm kicked into absolute overdrive. Spurious correlation abounds when afflicted with such a condition. Thankfully my experience was acute and triggered by drugs, so a few years of anti-psychotics and refraining from anything other than cannabis and alcohol in moderation have let me stop taking the anti-psychotics and at worst I experience cyclothymia, which I've decided to just live with and not medicate.
- bredren 4y agoThis sounds like ~the plot of the film Pi.
- pintxo 4y agoI'd say they may connect dots quickly, but not necessarily well.
- Induane 4y agoHN is generally okay with dissenting viewpoints. I didn't know scurvy was considered contagious; that's pretty cool. I did know people used to cure it by drinking tea made from Arborvitae trees - or at least its European counterpart (I think they have the same common name). I find the stance a little baffling though; if Measles isn't a virus, why can it's spread by halted by vaccination? Aside from the general usage and success thereof, sometimes it's easy to wonder just because the major outbreaks in the US happened a fairly long time ago. But a couple years back I had a coworker from Nigeria - I guess they still have outbreaks there?... anyway he scrambled to help get them money for MMR vaccines (I don't know if they're usually free via the WHO but supply wasn't abundant so - I guess bribes are a thing there moreso than here). And lo-and-behold none of his family got sick at all, but most of their smaller town did -- including their neighbors; a few had persistent physical problems (I don't recall what now) and a few people died. That's anecdotal, but goes very well with existing evidence and provides a nice microcosm for observation. The MMR vaccine isn't a nutrient cocktail and I find it quite hard to conjure a Occam's razor explanation that doesn't involve a known virus (or maybe I severely lack imagination or am too tainted by existing knowledge). To make the vaccines (at least ones like the MMR vaccine) they culture viruses - letting them replicate in cells - and then weakening or killing them. Do the vaccines just happen to have a weakened form of a virus that doesn't cause Measles and it's protective quality merely a startling coincidence? I mean, the virus can be viewed under a microscope https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC375751/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC375751/ - if that isn't responsible for the preventative effects of the vaccine, then what actually is? Sometimes science gets used badly and misconceptions abound or bad routes are taken for a while until they prove untenable; sometimes prevailing wisdom lasts a thousand years and then a Copernican revolution happens. They tend to be most useful to question though when there is a better alternative explanation that better fits the observations than the current prevailing wisdom. Anyone can "question" anything - but what is the better fitting explanation exists for observations about Measles than the prevalent wisdom and evidence that it is a virus?
- twawaaay 4y ago> HN is generally okay with dissenting viewpoints. No, it is not. HN is for more or less like-minded people and if you stay too far from the beaten path you risk the ire of moderators regardless of whether you are right or not. Apparently this is the price of keeping it civilised.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- michaelcampbell 4y agoI presume you mean here as an indicator, not a cause?
- jefftk 4y agoThat's right: wastewater is a good signal for what's happening inside the people upstream
- stjohnswarts 4y agosurely they are testing sewage to see if there is more of the polio virus in the drainage. I thought the CDC had started using that a lot more often. On the left you have nuts who think vaccines are unnatural and therefore awful, and on the right you have nuts who say the government is injecting nanites for 5G mind control. It's a crazy world out there.
- azinman2 4y agoI’d like to see a strong new center.
- ajsnigrutin 4y agoI mean... the crazy nuts also predict a lot of stuff that ends up being true. I got vaccinated because "if you get vaccinated, you won't get covid"... and then the narrative changed. 5G (well, every technology from 2g onwards) also enables a lot more precise tracking of users (their location).
- Fatnino 4y agoIf you get the vaccine, you won't get (and this detail is important) the ALPHA VARIANT of covid. And indeed, I'd bet dollars to donuts you did not end up catching Alpha. The vaccine was never going to be great against variants (though some people did claim it would be just as good with little evidence) and the more removed the variants get (ie, variant of a variant) the less chance those older vaccines have of resisting them. So it's not exactly that the "narrative changed" so much as that the virus changed and the narrative didn't keep up fast enough.
- vorpalhex 4y agoYou can still get the alpha variant. For what it's worth, we knew really early that the vaccine reduced severe illness primarily. People continued to be, and still are, inaccurate.
- ajsnigrutin 4y ago
- Consultant32452 4y ago[flagged]
- mooman219 4y ago> [Rockland County residents], have some of the lowest vaccination rates in the state; Monsey's is the lowest in the state, at 17.8%, as of June 15, 2021 Rockland County from the article.
- Izkata 4y agoThat's not in the article, a different comment here got it from Wikipedia.
- Fargoan 4y agoI don't trust anyone who refers to the COVID vaccines as "the jab"
- mike_d 4y ago> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027869152 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027869152... Which has been thoroughly debunked by the scientific community. "Food and Chemical Toxicology" is not a respected journal, and most famously published the "GMO foods cause cancer" paper that ended up being retracted. Here is a good video on why the author is a quack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwoRsj7AE7A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwoRsj7AE7A
- Consultant32452 4y agoThe Lancet data shows the same conclusion through different means. Did you have any thoughts on that?
- mike_d 4y agoNo it doesn't? Maybe you have the wrong link? The link you provided is just a standard vaccine efficacy over time study using data from Sweden. These are a dime a dozen and all show two things: 1) you are less likely to die when vaccinated, and 2) immune response reduces over time so you need boosters.
- mcguire 4y agoThis whole thing is very concerning. "According to the New York State Health Department, a person was found to be infected by a vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2), aka revertant polio Sabin type 2 virus." "Vaccine-associated paralytic polio" (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/vaccine-derived-poliovirus-faq.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/vaccine-derived-p...) is "a rare adverse event" following immunization with the Oral Polio Vaccine. "The United States exclusively has used IPV since 2000." I doesn't seem likely that a "young adult" who hasn't travelled outside the US would be exposed to the OPV. Possibly, from some of the other cases mentioned in the CDC article, someone the young adult interacted with had been exposed to it, though. The original article doesn't mention if the young adult was immunocompromised, which seems like a requirement for a secondary OPV infection.
- Fomite 4y agoThis does indeed seem like the unfortunate confluence of being exposed to someone shedding the vaccine-strain and community transmission. Which is exceedingly rare in the U.S., but is entirely foreseeable in low vaccination rate enclaves, which are growing more common.
- mike_d 4y agoThe risk of spread from weakened virus is completely eliminated under a proper vaccination program. You go into a community, vaccinate everyone, and you have zero risk. The fact the patient was unvaccinated was effectively their "immunocompromise" that allowed the virus to spread to them.
- joeyh 4y agoHe did travel, to Poland and Hungary. The AP originally had an article claiming no travel, but later updated it. Vincent Racaniello covers this and other details, recommended: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-5KGHzHTsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-5KGHzHTsI
- qbasic_forever 4y agoHe didn't travel in the last 30 days I read, and the incubation time is shorter than that. I.e. he caught it after coming home. Vincent has been a very bad source of information for the COVID pandemic. He has famously been against vaccine boosters, and even declared he didn't think he needed one. Even now as the need for second boosters is clear (and the need for first boosters completely justified and verified) he still says they aren't necessary. This is on top of him downplaying every variant like Omicron and saying they wouldn't be a problem (and then they went on to be huge problems). He should not be platformed IMHO.
- encryptluks2 4y ago
- chrisco255 4y ago[flagged]
- jeromegv 4y agoThe vaccine is vastly effective to prevent hospital stays and death by a very high margin. Yes, it is true, it does not prevent spread, as we thought it might. But it prevents the worse outcome of it, which is a big win.
- mwint 4y agoPlease confirm: this means the people saying the vaccine should be a strictly personal decision were correct?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]