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Global excess deaths (meaning the increase from normal) since Jan 2020 are [now estimated](https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#estimated-excess-mo

Global excess deaths (meaning the increase from normal) since Jan 2020 are [now estimated](https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#estimated-excess-mortality-from-the-economist https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#estimated-...) at about 22 million people. If we were getting a commensurate or greater decrease in pollution deaths, this number would be negative, so I think we can pretty confidently dismiss this hypothesis.

LadyCailin 4y ago
You’re probably correct, but going forward, since remote work seems to have become more generally accepted, we might start getting these benefits in the coming years, once the noise from these shorter term causes settles down.
- ghaff 4y ago
  Anecdotally, remote work must be a pretty small slice. Rush hour (and general overall) traffic in the Boston area anyway seems to be at pretty much pre-pandemic levels. My expectation is that we'll probably see a bit more flexibility for office jobs overall going forward. But it's not going to be the sea change that some expected/hoped for.
  - CalRobert 4y ago
    That's another topic meriting study - in cities, car miles traveled generally increase until they reach congestion (induced demand), so is this traffic just people going back to work or other people taking advantage of emptier roads?
    - ghaff 4y ago
      I'm talking about normal morning rush hour, which is to say starting in around 6:30am or so (to avoid the very worst of it). It still can take almost two hours for a drive that takes about an hour in light traffic. I don't think that's significantly contributed to by people taking advantage of emptier roads. I will say that the couple of times I've taken the train or subway over the past six months, they've seemed relatively underutilized compared to pre-pandemic. So there may be some degree of switching to cars from transit options.
wzdd 4y ago
We can only confidently dismiss this hypothesis if we would expect that lives saved due to a decrease in pollution would be noticeable over a two and a half year span. This seems unrealistic because air pollution tends to cause injury over a longer period of time (for example, contributing to heart disease or various cancers in adult life if the individual was exposed to pollutants as a child). By contrast, COVID can kill within weeks.
lostmsu 4y ago
Just the deaths might not be a good characteristic to measure overall impact. I'd count loss or gain of life opportunity ( e.g. -deaths*life expectancy + births*life expectancy + still_alive*delta(life_expectancy) )

LadyCailin 4y ago

You’re probably correct, but going forward, since remote work seems to have become more generally accepted, we might start getting these benefits in the coming years, once the noise from these shorter term causes settles down.

ghaff 4y ago
Anecdotally, remote work must be a pretty small slice. Rush hour (and general overall) traffic in the Boston area anyway seems to be at pretty much pre-pandemic levels. My expectation is that we'll probably see a bit more flexibility for office jobs overall going forward. But it's not going to be the sea change that some expected/hoped for.
- CalRobert 4y ago
  That's another topic meriting study - in cities, car miles traveled generally increase until they reach congestion (induced demand), so is this traffic just people going back to work or other people taking advantage of emptier roads?
  - ghaff 4y ago
    I'm talking about normal morning rush hour, which is to say starting in around 6:30am or so (to avoid the very worst of it). It still can take almost two hours for a drive that takes about an hour in light traffic. I don't think that's significantly contributed to by people taking advantage of emptier roads. I will say that the couple of times I've taken the train or subway over the past six months, they've seemed relatively underutilized compared to pre-pandemic. So there may be some degree of switching to cars from transit options.

wzdd 4y ago

We can only confidently dismiss this hypothesis if we would expect that lives saved due to a decrease in pollution would be noticeable over a two and a half year span. This seems unrealistic because air pollution tends to cause injury over a longer period of time (for example, contributing to heart disease or various cancers in adult life if the individual was exposed to pollutants as a child). By contrast, COVID can kill within weeks.

lostmsu 4y ago

Just the deaths might not be a good characteristic to measure overall impact. I'd count loss or gain of life opportunity ( e.g. -deaths*life expectancy + births*life expectancy + still_alive*delta(life_expectancy) )