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I would have expected Goodhart's law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law) to have been mentioned here
by bloak 4y ago
I would have expected Goodhart's law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law) to have been mentioned here.
For me the classic example was when all the doctors in the UK stopped letting people make appointments on any future date because they were being judged on how long patients have to wait for an appointment. So instead people had to repeatedly phone up first thing every morning. The war criminal Blair's government was very good at that sort of crap.
- hef19898 4y agoWell, your comment would be so much better without the last sentence calling Blair a war criminal. More to the point: Had there been a secind metric measuring how many appointments were booked in advance, this way of playing the metric would have easily been caught.
- wisty 4y agoIndividual decision makers (i.e. doctors) have way more information than the metric makers, so they can run rings around them. If the spreadsheet is going to be ungameable, it basically needs to be an AI that can do the job of the employees smarter than the employee. Or the employees need to be so unmotivated (or have motives so badly aligned) that a dumb drone telling them what to do will be an improvement.
- hef19898 4y agoNo AI needed so. If, e.g. NHS, wants to make sure wait times and time to get an appointment improve you can monitor, e.g, wait times in practices (assuming you check in patients when they arrive), monitor when appointments are booked and when they happen... Then, if times are considered to be too long, you do a proper root cause analysis, check your processes, adjust exectations. Just because people are usually unable to do all that, doesn't mean the spreadsheet is at fault or you need AI.
- hef19898 4y agoToo late to edit. The sinplest way to judge if appointment lead times are good, you can compare patients prefered date against the one they got and the one they actually used. There are so many options to do it right, assuming someoje wants to measure things like this.
- Gordonjcp 4y ago
- hef19898 4y agoI am not aware of him, or George W. for that matter, being tried in Den Hague so. Not defending what they did by any stretch, but facts matter. Should "we" measure ourselves by the same standards we apply to, say, Millosevic? Sure we should. We are not so, we even happily deal with the Saudis to get gas and oil.
- Gordonjcp 4y agoThey weren't tried in The Hague but they should have been. They got away with it.
- saberience 4y agoIf you actually look at the UNs definition of war crimes, he ABSOLUTELY didn't commit anything that could be called a war crime. So no, I don't agree with your assertion.
- beckingz 4y agoLaunching an unjustified war on false pretenses may not be a war crime, but it's not a good look either.
- hef19898 4y agoIt is absolutely not a good look, and nobody said that. Calling Blair a war criminal is like calling Trump a traitor, both things are factually wrong.
- Gordonjcp 4y agoTIL that ordering airstrikes on civilians specifically to murder civilians isn't a war crime.
- Nowado 4y ago
- tailspin2019 4y agoAndy Grove talks about this in his excellent book “High Output Management”… Having a KPI show that you doubled your manufacturing throughout is only one side of the story. You may have also doubled your product failure rate, but aren’t measuring the latter.
- hackernewds 4y agoReminds me of when COVID testing was curbed by the govt agency in the US not too long ago, for political benefit