For now it's a standalone analysis (constrained to climate) looking back & forward, applying a variety of indicators, some normal stuff like mas & stddev, some

For now it's a standalone analysis (constrained to climate) looking back & forward, applying a variety of indicators, some normal stuff like mas & stddev, some shamelessly ripped from equities trading books (bollinger bands as an example building on those first items), along with some of my own which are probably dumb but which seem reliable enough for me. I admit I'm not a huge fan of predictive or causal models unless taken in the aggregate, usually. Especially the singular-cause or singular-outcome kind. This is coming from personal interest in this topic within psychology study...for one I find that such models can become pretty breathless & kind of suck all the energy out of the room, energy that can be redirected into an executive stance. Where otherwise you end up with perfectly good mental resources stuck in a perceptive stance. It's cool to predict, but also even cooler to predict with an open mind to many possible outcomes, and then also even cooler to do that and then say "now here's the plan" iow.