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Yes the author seems to state that there are many more traffic deaths than commercial transport deaths as if the point is self evident but I do not see it. From

Yes the author seems to state that there are many more traffic deaths than commercial transport deaths as if the point is self evident but I do not see it. From my perspective its a minor miracle that there aren't more traffic deaths. We let any private individual drive up to a 20,000 something pound vehicle with pretty minimal licensing requirements (in most places in the US). The news story is that it mostly goes ok.

throwaway6734 4y ago
my personal theory is that people's overconfidence in their ability as drivers and underestimating the risk of driving ends up making the process much safer than if people were more grounded in reality
- iforgotpassword 4y ago
  Now I'm really curious for the reasoning behind that.
  - throwaway6734 4y ago
    I think it's like the difference between balancing on a plank of wood a foot off the ground and one ten feet off the ground. The act is the same, but the perception of risk is way different and the performance would be as well
- vineyardmike 4y ago
  Or everyone’s overconfidence and underestimation means there’s no appetite for people to accept regulation and change. because I’m not the problem and I’m in control, I shouldn’t expect change. Meanwhile when you fly, you know you’re at the hands of someone else, and you want to control them as much as possible.
  - juve1996 4y ago
    You don't even have to use a plane as an example. Be a passenger in a car with a driver you're unfamiliar with. Lots of people struggle with that and way overestimate the speeds the driver is going at.
- elihu 4y ago
  I could see that possibly being true. I mean, driving is kind of weird; it seems to be mostly done with a part of the brain that can operate automatically with little conscious effort. It's sort of like playing the piano: if I'm playing some piece that I know well I probably won't screw up unless I actually try to consciously think about what I'm doing, which is when things fall apart. That said, I think people should be reasonably safety-conscious about vehicle maintenance, avoiding risky situations, and avoiding things that could sabotage the automatic-driving part of their brain, like doing other things at the same time that require their attention and their hands and eyes.
  - throwaway6734 4y ago
    Agree!
- 988747 4y ago
  It's not even about confidence. It's a matter of being in control. When you drive you can do something about whether or not you crash. When you are a passenger in a plane or train you are completely helpless.
  - incompatible 4y ago
    Apparently, such confidence is misplaced, and people "in control" crash a lot more often than helpless passengers.
kennywinker 4y ago
Not sure 40k deaths per year and countless more severe injuries, permanent disabilities, and financial destitutions count as it going mostly ok
- 988747 4y ago
  It can be if you compare it to: 1. Total US population, and total deaths per year 2. Amount of miles traveled yearly.
  - scoofy 4y ago
    Except that they are dramatically higher than in comparable countries. It's very obvious that the US is overwhelmingly worse off in traffic deaths.
    - sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
      Do americans travel more miles than is typical in those countries?
      - Moru 4y ago
        Very mixed ages and completeness of the data in this list [1] but it seems USA is pretty high on death per kilometer (fifth) of those countries that has data on kilometer traveled. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
      - scoofy 4y ago
        Measure in “trips” not miles. Measuring in miles rewards suburban culture. Highway driving isn’t where deaths happen. They happen most on urban roads.
        throwaway0a5e 4y ago
        Screw you both. Measure butt-in-seat hours.
kloch 4y ago
> drive up to a 20,000 something pound vehicle Specifically in the US the limit is 26,000 lbs GVWR without a CDL. That is the gross vehicle rating cannot be over 26,000 lbs, even if it actually weighs less when driven. I've always assumed that exceeding the GVWR is illegal but searches show conflicting results.

throwaway6734 4y ago

my personal theory is that people's overconfidence in their ability as drivers and underestimating the risk of driving ends up making the process much safer than if people were more grounded in reality

iforgotpassword 4y ago
Now I'm really curious for the reasoning behind that.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  I think it's like the difference between balancing on a plank of wood a foot off the ground and one ten feet off the ground. The act is the same, but the perception of risk is way different and the performance would be as well
vineyardmike 4y ago
Or everyone’s overconfidence and underestimation means there’s no appetite for people to accept regulation and change. because I’m not the problem and I’m in control, I shouldn’t expect change. Meanwhile when you fly, you know you’re at the hands of someone else, and you want to control them as much as possible.
- juve1996 4y ago
  You don't even have to use a plane as an example. Be a passenger in a car with a driver you're unfamiliar with. Lots of people struggle with that and way overestimate the speeds the driver is going at.
elihu 4y ago
I could see that possibly being true. I mean, driving is kind of weird; it seems to be mostly done with a part of the brain that can operate automatically with little conscious effort. It's sort of like playing the piano: if I'm playing some piece that I know well I probably won't screw up unless I actually try to consciously think about what I'm doing, which is when things fall apart. That said, I think people should be reasonably safety-conscious about vehicle maintenance, avoiding risky situations, and avoiding things that could sabotage the automatic-driving part of their brain, like doing other things at the same time that require their attention and their hands and eyes.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  Agree!
988747 4y ago
It's not even about confidence. It's a matter of being in control. When you drive you can do something about whether or not you crash. When you are a passenger in a plane or train you are completely helpless.
- incompatible 4y ago
  Apparently, such confidence is misplaced, and people "in control" crash a lot more often than helpless passengers.

kennywinker 4y ago

Not sure 40k deaths per year and countless more severe injuries, permanent disabilities, and financial destitutions count as it going mostly ok

988747 4y ago
It can be if you compare it to: 1. Total US population, and total deaths per year 2. Amount of miles traveled yearly.
- scoofy 4y ago
  Except that they are dramatically higher than in comparable countries. It's very obvious that the US is overwhelmingly worse off in traffic deaths.
  - sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
    Do americans travel more miles than is typical in those countries?
    - Moru 4y ago
      Very mixed ages and completeness of the data in this list [1] but it seems USA is pretty high on death per kilometer (fifth) of those countries that has data on kilometer traveled. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
    - scoofy 4y ago
      Measure in “trips” not miles. Measuring in miles rewards suburban culture. Highway driving isn’t where deaths happen. They happen most on urban roads.
      - throwaway0a5e 4y ago
        Screw you both. Measure butt-in-seat hours.

kloch 4y ago

> drive up to a 20,000 something pound vehicle Specifically in the US the limit is 26,000 lbs GVWR without a CDL. That is the gross vehicle rating cannot be over 26,000 lbs, even if it actually weighs less when driven. I've always assumed that exceeding the GVWR is illegal but searches show conflicting results.