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> Always interesting to see outsiders writing papers about this, using anecdote and unrelated data (mostly political and real world purchase data in this case)

> Always interesting to see outsiders writing papers about this, using anecdote and unrelated data (mostly political and real world purchase data in this case) to argue that ML doesn't make useful predictions. Meanwhile I look at randomized controlled trial data showing millions of dollars in revenue uplift directly attributable to ML vs non-ML backed conversion pipelines, offsetting the cost of doing the ML by >10x. I regularly buy the same brand of toilet paper, socks, and sneakers. Machine learning can predict that. But, machine learning can't predict that I spent the night at my parents house, really liked the fancy pillow they put on the guest bed, and then had to buy one for myself. (This is essentially the conclusion in the abstract.) Such a prediction requires mind reading, which is impossible.

mgraczyk 4y ago
The key insight missed by this paper (and people from the marketing field in general) is that cases like that are extremely rare compared to easy to predict cases. They don't matter right now at all for most products, from the perspective of marketing ROI. Also ML can predict that, BTW. Facebook knows you are connected to your parents. If the pillow seller tells Facebook that your parents bought the pillow, then Facebook knows and may choose to show you an ad for that pillow.
- gwbas1c 4y ago
  > Also ML can predict that, BTW. Facebook knows you are connected to your parents. If the pillow seller tells Facebook that your parents bought the pillow, then Facebook knows and may choose to show you an ad for that pillow. I think you're letting your imagination run away, and I think you're trying to exceed the limits of the kind of information that you can collect and act upon. What you're trying to do is mind reading, and computers physically cannot do that. (Nor can people)
  - mgraczyk 4y ago
    It's not mind reading, I explained how it works. You are friends with your parents on Facebook. Your parents buy the pillow. The pillow seller tells facebook that your parents bought the pillow. Now Facebook knows that somebody who is your friend recently bought the pillow. Facebook may decide to show you an ad for that pillow because somebody who is your friend recently bought the pillow. The result may look like "mind reading", but it's actually very simple in terms of actual prediction.

mgraczyk 4y ago

The key insight missed by this paper (and people from the marketing field in general) is that cases like that are extremely rare compared to easy to predict cases. They don't matter right now at all for most products, from the perspective of marketing ROI. Also ML can predict that, BTW. Facebook knows you are connected to your parents. If the pillow seller tells Facebook that your parents bought the pillow, then Facebook knows and may choose to show you an ad for that pillow.

gwbas1c 4y ago
> Also ML can predict that, BTW. Facebook knows you are connected to your parents. If the pillow seller tells Facebook that your parents bought the pillow, then Facebook knows and may choose to show you an ad for that pillow. I think you're letting your imagination run away, and I think you're trying to exceed the limits of the kind of information that you can collect and act upon. What you're trying to do is mind reading, and computers physically cannot do that. (Nor can people)
- mgraczyk 4y ago
  It's not mind reading, I explained how it works. You are friends with your parents on Facebook. Your parents buy the pillow. The pillow seller tells facebook that your parents bought the pillow. Now Facebook knows that somebody who is your friend recently bought the pillow. Facebook may decide to show you an ad for that pillow because somebody who is your friend recently bought the pillow. The result may look like "mind reading", but it's actually very simple in terms of actual prediction.