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> At scale? Yes, of course, all lifeforms reproduce exponentially. Literally the biosphere would (re-)vivify the Earth automatically if we just stop destroyin

> At scale? Yes, of course, all lifeforms reproduce exponentially. Literally the biosphere would (re-)vivify the Earth automatically if we just stop destroying it. It's been doing it for four billion years. > Can this be implemented globally in a few decades? That I cannot say, but I believe the limiting factors are social/political rather than biological or physical. In other words, yes, if we have the will we could probably turn things around, go from destruction to regeneration, within three decades. It would be unprecedented but I don't see any intrinsic physical reasons that we couldn't do it. The revitalization of the Loess Plateau took less than three decades, and as a side-effect it now produces all the material needed to repeat the process in a new place. > What about making it work in places going dry? Yes. Not only can we do this in places going dry, we can convert desert to (productive food) forest where ever we need it. E.g. "Greening the Desert" https://www.greeningthedesertproject.org/ https://www.greeningthedesertproject.org/ project in Jordan. People are using ecological principles all over the world to regenerate large areas. > Desalination plants and wastewater treatment plants have existed for decades, but are expensive. Today, many people don't have access to clean water because of this. It's a huge problem, it's true. But progress is being made. E.g. check out the projects described in "India's Water Revolution" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8nqnOcoLqE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8nqnOcoLqE We can transform the deserts into paradise. The rains will fall. (I'm going to stop now before I start quoting passages from "Dune") ;) > Rifles and ammunition are cheaper than new water infrastructure so war over water will take place everywhere before water conservation technology is deployed. Water projects are far cheaper and easier than making bullets. Check out the video I linked above.

29athrowaway 4y ago
Well, that won't do. You are not thinking at scale. It requires training people that do not have the resources to acquire training.
- carapace 4y ago
  Could you elaborate a little? I mean education is also a (potentially) exponential process, in the sense that e.g. one literate person can teach many others to read, who can then teach even more people. Certainly some people will need resources as well as training to get started in their area, but we can afford to do that.
  - 29athrowaway 4y ago
    We have like 50 years to come up with a scalable solution to the problem of how to grow enough food for a growing population on dying topsoil[1] while having less fresh water[2], and while overfishing most species to extinction. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJhpoYwAqFA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJhpoYwAqFA [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsThobgq7Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsThobgq7Q That is not considering worse scenarios like arctic frozen methane melting and releasing a lethal load of methane into the atmosphere. Each time you mention the subject, people talk about some obscure, prototype program somewhere that requires Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run. Dude, wake up, billions of people do not even have toilets and you think in less than 50 years they will be doing futuristic shit on a zero dollar budget? That's not going to happen. But what is going to happen is the same people picking up guns and fighting each other to death over topsoil and water.
    - carapace 4y ago
      We're on the same side you and I, you're "preaching to the choir." But I'm telling you, things are not as dark as they seem! We're learning and applying that learning. I know about topsoil degradation and erosion, but it's something we're learning to prevent. E.g. Gabe Brown's "Treating the Farm as an Ecosystem with Gabe Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil Health" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A He increases his topsoil volume and fertility year-on-year, and his farm is more profitable! Population growth seems like it's leveling off all on it's own, mostly as women get more education and wealth and have fewer children per capita. Japan has already started contracting in population, eh? Water is going to be a problem in many areas, but again, people are learning and applying ecological principles to regenerate wastelands. Did you check out the Greening the Desert project? > That is not considering worse scenarios like arctic frozen methane melting and releasing a lethal load of methane into the atmosphere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#Current_outlook https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#Curre... The clathrate gun hypothesis is scary, I know, it's kept me up at night. But since there's nothing to do about it beyond just fixing things anyway, the solution to that is the same as the solution to everything else: learn to live in harmony with nature. And it seems like the danger might not be a great as we originally feared. I hope so! > Each time you mention the subject, people talk about some obscure, prototype program somewhere that requires Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run. Well, you're mentioning it to me and I'm not doing that. Permaculture (just to talk about something I have some experience with) is easy to learn, easy to teach, fun and profitable to practice, and doesn't require "Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run." > billions of people do not even have toilets All they need is Eisenia fetida. They eat poop and poop soil. It's that simple. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenia_fetida https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenia_fetida https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermicompost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermicompost > you think in less than 50 years they will be doing futuristic shit on a zero dollar budget? Well I didn't say that did I? What I said, and I believe it, is that we have all the information and technology we need already to fix our environmental problems, and that the limiting factor is social (getting the word out) rather than technological (we don't have to e.g. invent fusion first.) That's my thesis. I'm not talking about "futuristic shit", except that ecology could be considered futuristic? It's a young science anyway. What I'm talking about is applying ecological principles to solve our basic human needs (the lower levels of Maslow's Hierarchy, eh?) It will probably take more than a "zero dollar budget" (where did you get that from?) But again, ecological regeneration is the default condition of life. It literally is solar-powered self-improving nanotechnology, eh? You can start anywhere, with next to nothing, and increase biomass and diversity and fertility. I took some sandy soil, added some wood chips that some chickens had pooped in and a few potatoes, and now there's a lively potato patch where before there was a bit of bare dirt. Zero initial budget. But yeah, if we "lean into it" with money and resources and people then we can accelerate the healing. Come, let's grow a beautiful future together for all humankind. I truly believe it's possible, and that the only thing holding us back is that we haven't fully realized it yet. Cheers!

29athrowaway 4y ago

Well, that won't do. You are not thinking at scale. It requires training people that do not have the resources to acquire training.

carapace 4y ago
Could you elaborate a little? I mean education is also a (potentially) exponential process, in the sense that e.g. one literate person can teach many others to read, who can then teach even more people. Certainly some people will need resources as well as training to get started in their area, but we can afford to do that.
- 29athrowaway 4y ago
  We have like 50 years to come up with a scalable solution to the problem of how to grow enough food for a growing population on dying topsoil[1] while having less fresh water[2], and while overfishing most species to extinction. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJhpoYwAqFA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJhpoYwAqFA [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsThobgq7Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsThobgq7Q That is not considering worse scenarios like arctic frozen methane melting and releasing a lethal load of methane into the atmosphere. Each time you mention the subject, people talk about some obscure, prototype program somewhere that requires Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run. Dude, wake up, billions of people do not even have toilets and you think in less than 50 years they will be doing futuristic shit on a zero dollar budget? That's not going to happen. But what is going to happen is the same people picking up guns and fighting each other to death over topsoil and water.
  - carapace 4y ago
    We're on the same side you and I, you're "preaching to the choir." But I'm telling you, things are not as dark as they seem! We're learning and applying that learning. I know about topsoil degradation and erosion, but it's something we're learning to prevent. E.g. Gabe Brown's "Treating the Farm as an Ecosystem with Gabe Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil Health" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A He increases his topsoil volume and fertility year-on-year, and his farm is more profitable! Population growth seems like it's leveling off all on it's own, mostly as women get more education and wealth and have fewer children per capita. Japan has already started contracting in population, eh? Water is going to be a problem in many areas, but again, people are learning and applying ecological principles to regenerate wastelands. Did you check out the Greening the Desert project? > That is not considering worse scenarios like arctic frozen methane melting and releasing a lethal load of methane into the atmosphere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#Current_outlook https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#Curre... The clathrate gun hypothesis is scary, I know, it's kept me up at night. But since there's nothing to do about it beyond just fixing things anyway, the solution to that is the same as the solution to everything else: learn to live in harmony with nature. And it seems like the danger might not be a great as we originally feared. I hope so! > Each time you mention the subject, people talk about some obscure, prototype program somewhere that requires Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run. Well, you're mentioning it to me and I'm not doing that. Permaculture (just to talk about something I have some experience with) is easy to learn, easy to teach, fun and profitable to practice, and doesn't require "Ivy League engineers and millions of dollars to run." > billions of people do not even have toilets All they need is Eisenia fetida. They eat poop and poop soil. It's that simple. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenia_fetida https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenia_fetida https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermicompost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermicompost > you think in less than 50 years they will be doing futuristic shit on a zero dollar budget? Well I didn't say that did I? What I said, and I believe it, is that we have all the information and technology we need already to fix our environmental problems, and that the limiting factor is social (getting the word out) rather than technological (we don't have to e.g. invent fusion first.) That's my thesis. I'm not talking about "futuristic shit", except that ecology could be considered futuristic? It's a young science anyway. What I'm talking about is applying ecological principles to solve our basic human needs (the lower levels of Maslow's Hierarchy, eh?) It will probably take more than a "zero dollar budget" (where did you get that from?) But again, ecological regeneration is the default condition of life. It literally is solar-powered self-improving nanotechnology, eh? You can start anywhere, with next to nothing, and increase biomass and diversity and fertility. I took some sandy soil, added some wood chips that some chickens had pooped in and a few potatoes, and now there's a lively potato patch where before there was a bit of bare dirt. Zero initial budget. But yeah, if we "lean into it" with money and resources and people then we can accelerate the healing. Come, let's grow a beautiful future together for all humankind. I truly believe it's possible, and that the only thing holding us back is that we haven't fully realized it yet. Cheers!