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I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but this advice comes from a period of 100 years of more or less constant global economic growth. This advice on

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but this advice comes from a period of 100 years of more or less constant global economic growth. This advice only holds if you maintain that such growth can be maintained in perpetuity. As we start to see more and more constraints on energy and resources globally, and realize that we're living in a world funded by debt we might not be able to pay, it's a fairly reasonable position that infinite growth is in fact not possible on a finite planet. The assumption that everything will always eventually go up is a pretty bold one and worth taking with a grain of salt.

nonameiguess 4y ago
That isn't true. The advice to buy is based on a belief in a high probability that, for the next 20-50 years, depending on your retirement horizon, a broadly diversified portfolio of highly liquid asset classes will appreciate relative to whatever legal tender currency you'd otherwise hold. Infinite growth in perpetuity is not required at all. As far as I know, if this proved to not be true, it would represent the first time ever since publicly-tradeable equity shares in private companies were invented. You're effectively saying you think the remainder of the 21st century will be worse for the industrialized west than all recent history, including a period of two world wars, the Spanish Flu epidemic, and the Great Depression all happening back to back to back to back. That is a fairly extraordinary claim that doesn't seem to be helped much by the fact that Earth will at some point hit a carrying capacity, which has always been true.
- xyzzy123 4y ago
  More like the sum total of promises that've been made is greater than our collective capacity to deliver on them.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > You're effectively saying you think the remainder of the 21st century will be worse for the industrialized west than all recent history Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. And there is ample evidence for this, despite HNs general refusal/inability to process this.

nonameiguess 4y ago

That isn't true. The advice to buy is based on a belief in a high probability that, for the next 20-50 years, depending on your retirement horizon, a broadly diversified portfolio of highly liquid asset classes will appreciate relative to whatever legal tender currency you'd otherwise hold. Infinite growth in perpetuity is not required at all. As far as I know, if this proved to not be true, it would represent the first time ever since publicly-tradeable equity shares in private companies were invented. You're effectively saying you think the remainder of the 21st century will be worse for the industrialized west than all recent history, including a period of two world wars, the Spanish Flu epidemic, and the Great Depression all happening back to back to back to back. That is a fairly extraordinary claim that doesn't seem to be helped much by the fact that Earth will at some point hit a carrying capacity, which has always been true.

xyzzy123 4y ago
More like the sum total of promises that've been made is greater than our collective capacity to deliver on them.
time_to_smile 4y ago
> You're effectively saying you think the remainder of the 21st century will be worse for the industrialized west than all recent history Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. And there is ample evidence for this, despite HNs general refusal/inability to process this.