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Beating The Odds: Machine Learning For Horse Racing (2019)

• PaulHoule 4y ago
  It's wrongheaded to go about horse racing from the viewpoint of "betting on the best horse". Even if your judgement is a bit better than average, the track takes a 15-18% vig and you'll still lose money unless you outperform that. The right way to think about it is "finding a good bet". A few times a day you find a situation where a place or show bet is terribly mispriced compared to win. The tote board gives highly accurate odds to win but sometimes you see place or show paying almost the same as win except you have two or three chances to win instead of one. In a case like that if you believe the win odds are fair, place or show is a slam dunk and you can really make money that way. See https://www.amazon.com/Dr-Beat-Racetrack-William-Ziemba/dp/0688072216 https://www.amazon.com/Dr-Beat-Racetrack-William-Ziemba/dp/0...
• tamaharbor 4y ago
  That is the first time I have ever seen the actual weight of a horse as a betting angle.
  • optimalsolver 4y ago
    Why wouldn't it be?
    • tamaharbor 4y ago
      Perhaps to gauge the fitness of the horse, but that data is not typically available in the US.