3 ms·

Not going to comment on hole digging because I am a "techie", but going to use your comment as an accretion point for a thought I've had for a while. In softwa

by cnity 4y ago

Not going to comment on hole digging because I am a "techie", but going to use your comment as an accretion point for a thought I've had for a while. In software, until we acknowledge the way in which the coastline paradox[0] pertains to task estimation, we're going to continue spinning our wheels saying things like "people have worked on this area before, the estimation should be easy" and keep getting really inaccurate estimates, and the engineers will continue to be blamed. The fractal nature of task complexity suggests that _complexity can only go up_ (more or less). This is why estimates always seem to be wrong in the direction of "too short". Your comment about hole digging is to assert that the fractal dimension[0 again] is 1 for that particular problem. Great! Estimation is easy in those cases. My proposal: identify the particular fractal dimension of your particular problem domain (by observing past estimations compared with their reality) and use it as a multiplicative factor in estimates. Unfortunately, most managers call this process "sandbagging" and my proposal is considered too "mathematically complex". I believe that until this is accepted and resolved, we will continue to have unrealistic estimates. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox

bumby 4y ago
In big projects, there are also incentives to underbid up-front. It’s common for project managers to low-ball to get their projected funded and then use the sunk-cost fallacy to get it funded to the appropriate level. This unfortunately leaves people who actively try to give accurate estimates with unfunded projects
- CrimpCity 4y ago
  Yup! The change order strategy or nickel and dime strategy tho autocorrect suggested “buckle and dime” and that would also work. Unfortunately as much as engineers and owners reps complain about this way of doing business it’s quite accepted since people generally want to keep their reputations. No one wants to be known as “difficult to work with”. So only very excessive transgressions get punished.

by cnity 4y ago

bumby 4y ago

In big projects, there are also incentives to underbid up-front. It’s common for project managers to low-ball to get their projected funded and then use the sunk-cost fallacy to get it funded to the appropriate level. This unfortunately leaves people who actively try to give accurate estimates with unfunded projects

CrimpCity 4y ago
Yup! The change order strategy or nickel and dime strategy tho autocorrect suggested “buckle and dime” and that would also work. Unfortunately as much as engineers and owners reps complain about this way of doing business it’s quite accepted since people generally want to keep their reputations. No one wants to be known as “difficult to work with”. So only very excessive transgressions get punished.