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>Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed. While we could be doing better, we've made

>Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed. While we could be doing better, we've made immense strides over the past ten years, to the point where we've already avoided the worst outcomes and could possibly even limit the rise to 2°C and avoid most harm altogether. At least, according to Kurzgesagt. https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw

Joeri 4y ago
Immense strides have been made, but I feel it is dangerous to take a too rosy outlook until the job is done. Complacency has always been the biggest threat to solving the climate crisis. On the other hand climate apathy and fatalism are also real, and equally dangerous. The best source for the amount of warming we are heading for is the yearly UNEP emissions gap report, which takes all the national commitments and calculates global outcomes. With the currently planned measures we are heading for 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century. If the countries that have promised a net-zero strategy actually implement one we are headed for 2.2 degrees. Realistically there is at present no path to less than 2 degrees of warming without major political upheaval or technological revolution and we are probably heading for 2.5 degrees of warming. Even at 2 degrees the consequences are severe. We are looking at a near-total loss of coral reefs and one fifth of insect species, 40% of humanity will become exposed to extreme heat waves, many coastal areas will need to be abandoned displacing hundreds of millions of people. The effects get disproportionately worse when temperatures exceed 2 degrees of warming. So, the situation is not hopeless, but without further action we are still locked into some pretty bad outcomes, and we need to keep the pressure on with all governments to take further steps. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021 https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021
throwanapple 4y ago
Any thoughts on this response video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI
tsimionescu 4y ago
> While we could be doing better, we've made immense strides over the past ten years, to the point where we've already avoided the worst outcome This is only perhaps true if you project the current progress into the future as if this is a foregone conclusion. That is dangerously wrong - most of what has been done to combat global warming is the table stakes, the things that its easy to do and should have either been done decades ago, or are simple economic shifts (transitioning some coal power to wind and solar). But reaching net 0 emissions is going to be extremely hard, much harder than halving our past emissions. And we have to do that in the next 30-40 years to avoid 2 degrees of warming, which is already catastrophic. To get to net 0, we would have to replace virtually all transportation in the world with BEVs (cars are easy to replace, planes, trucks and cargo ships almost impossible, and definitely not in 30 years). We will need to produce at least twice as much electricity as today while closing virtually all coal and gas power plants (but we don't have anywhere near enough energy storage to run the whole grid off renewables, nor is there any realistic chance to do so in the next 30 years). And finally, we will have to close down the vast majority of industrial animal farming pursuits, which supply much of the world's food. There is no real chance that the current rate of improvement will lead anywhere close to curtailing emissions enough to avoid 2-3 degrees of warming. Plus, the appetite for these changes may well sour as the bigger impact ones will come to pass.

Joeri 4y ago

Immense strides have been made, but I feel it is dangerous to take a too rosy outlook until the job is done. Complacency has always been the biggest threat to solving the climate crisis. On the other hand climate apathy and fatalism are also real, and equally dangerous. The best source for the amount of warming we are heading for is the yearly UNEP emissions gap report, which takes all the national commitments and calculates global outcomes. With the currently planned measures we are heading for 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century. If the countries that have promised a net-zero strategy actually implement one we are headed for 2.2 degrees. Realistically there is at present no path to less than 2 degrees of warming without major political upheaval or technological revolution and we are probably heading for 2.5 degrees of warming. Even at 2 degrees the consequences are severe. We are looking at a near-total loss of coral reefs and one fifth of insect species, 40% of humanity will become exposed to extreme heat waves, many coastal areas will need to be abandoned displacing hundreds of millions of people. The effects get disproportionately worse when temperatures exceed 2 degrees of warming. So, the situation is not hopeless, but without further action we are still locked into some pretty bad outcomes, and we need to keep the pressure on with all governments to take further steps. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021 https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021

throwanapple 4y ago

Any thoughts on this response video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI

tsimionescu 4y ago

> While we could be doing better, we've made immense strides over the past ten years, to the point where we've already avoided the worst outcome This is only perhaps true if you project the current progress into the future as if this is a foregone conclusion. That is dangerously wrong - most of what has been done to combat global warming is the table stakes, the things that its easy to do and should have either been done decades ago, or are simple economic shifts (transitioning some coal power to wind and solar). But reaching net 0 emissions is going to be extremely hard, much harder than halving our past emissions. And we have to do that in the next 30-40 years to avoid 2 degrees of warming, which is already catastrophic. To get to net 0, we would have to replace virtually all transportation in the world with BEVs (cars are easy to replace, planes, trucks and cargo ships almost impossible, and definitely not in 30 years). We will need to produce at least twice as much electricity as today while closing virtually all coal and gas power plants (but we don't have anywhere near enough energy storage to run the whole grid off renewables, nor is there any realistic chance to do so in the next 30 years). And finally, we will have to close down the vast majority of industrial animal farming pursuits, which supply much of the world's food. There is no real chance that the current rate of improvement will lead anywhere close to curtailing emissions enough to avoid 2-3 degrees of warming. Plus, the appetite for these changes may well sour as the bigger impact ones will come to pass.