It's not perfectly analogous, I'll grant you... but at flight speed, even ground-effect flight speed, I think the consequences of hitting a larger than expected

It's not perfectly analogous, I'll grant you... but at flight speed, even ground-effect flight speed, I think the consequences of hitting a larger than expected wave, or dipping a wing in the water after a gust of wind, are worse than just becoming a boat. (Maybe becoming what a boat would become if you dropped it from 2-3m at 100+mph...)