Turchin's political stability indicator predicts this due to rising economic inequality, overproduction of grads with advanced degrees, and exploding public deb

Turchin's political stability indicator predicts this due to rising economic inequality, overproduction of grads with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt [0][1]. However, civil wars usually occur in poorer countries [1][2]. Also the proportion of the world in civil war is 1% and falling exponentially [2]. Finally, Metaculus gives a 5% chance of US civil war before 2031, where a recent July bump is discussed in the comments (Roe, Jan 6) [3]. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a [1] https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-violence-inequality-us-election https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-... [2] https://www.nber.org/reporter/2011number3/economic-shocks-weather-and-civil-war https://www.nber.org/reporter/2011number3/economic-shocks-we... [3] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war... Notes: The Harvard December 2021 youth poll participants gave as 35% chance in their lifetime: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-poll https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-p... Rasmussen 2018 poll: 33% likely, 10% very likely before 2023 https://www.newsweek.com/second-civil-war-likely-one-third-americans-think-so-999254 https://www.newsweek.com/second-civil-war-likely-one-third-a... Does anyone have a graph of this probabilty over time from a consistent source like rasmussen? https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/questions/june_2018/questions_civil_war_june_21_and_24_2018 https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/que...