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Similar technology has been around for a while and so far it's only generated a few laughs and some use in the film industry. GPT-3 hasn't taken over social me

Similar technology has been around for a while and so far it's only generated a few laughs and some use in the film industry. GPT-3 hasn't taken over social media. Dall-e 2 hasn't put all graphical artists out of a job.

shynrou 4y ago
..., yet. Mostly because of the tech being decently locked down by license and limited access currently. At the pace these models are developing it's pretty much unthinkable that it will not have a big impact in the next 20 years.
- postalrat 4y ago
  Access is limited by the hardware you have access to. Forget about training, just running these models takes a lot of memory.
  - mcbuilder 4y ago
    AI compute is increasing at a rate faster than Moore's law. Right now if DALL-E 2 takes an 8xA100 box to run inferences, how long before it's on the workstation? 4-5 years?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - selfhoster11 4y ago
      It's to be expected. Almost nobody really cared about accelerating AI computations, so I expect that AI chips will be catching up.
anigbrowl 4y ago
Get back to me in 5 years.
xpe 4y ago
It would be unwise to ignore the trajectory, a.k.a. rate of change. In general, when looking at some phenomena, don't only look at the primary measurement (e.g. f(x)). It is often useful to look at the derivative (e.g. df/dx) as well. P.S. The second derivative also may be informative as well. Keep going if you want.
xpe 4y ago
> Similar technology has been around for a while and so far it's only generated a few laughs and some use in the film industry. Humility and less overconfidence, please. You aren't omniscient. You aren't in every room where these technologies have been discussed.
Tossrock 4y ago
Early in the war, "someone" (obviously Russia) released a deepfake of Zelenskyy giving a speech telling his soldiers to surrender: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zel...
- gardaani 4y ago
  European politicians were also fooled by deep fake video calls: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/european-leaders-deepfake-video-calls-mayor-of-kyiv-vitali-klitschko https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/european-leade...
selfhoster11 4y ago
That's because GPT and Dall-E are famously locked behind a use case restricting paywall/invite-wall ("Open"AI, my a...). You can already see things picking up with GPT-J-6B, Midjourney, Dall-E Mini and GPT-4chan, all of which are much less restrictive and therefore easier to use for casual creation. Just wait until these things start to trickle down to the "plebs" like us and non-technical people. The amount of compute required to re-create and run these systems is the main bottleneck for now, but once the hardware is there and the models shrink to make them easier to run... that's when things will get fascinating.

shynrou 4y ago

..., yet. Mostly because of the tech being decently locked down by license and limited access currently. At the pace these models are developing it's pretty much unthinkable that it will not have a big impact in the next 20 years.

postalrat 4y ago
Access is limited by the hardware you have access to. Forget about training, just running these models takes a lot of memory.
- mcbuilder 4y ago
  AI compute is increasing at a rate faster than Moore's law. Right now if DALL-E 2 takes an 8xA100 box to run inferences, how long before it's on the workstation? 4-5 years?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - selfhoster11 4y ago
    It's to be expected. Almost nobody really cared about accelerating AI computations, so I expect that AI chips will be catching up.

anigbrowl 4y ago

Get back to me in 5 years.

xpe 4y ago

It would be unwise to ignore the trajectory, a.k.a. rate of change. In general, when looking at some phenomena, don't only look at the primary measurement (e.g. f(x)). It is often useful to look at the derivative (e.g. df/dx) as well. P.S. The second derivative also may be informative as well. Keep going if you want.

xpe 4y ago

> Similar technology has been around for a while and so far it's only generated a few laughs and some use in the film industry. Humility and less overconfidence, please. You aren't omniscient. You aren't in every room where these technologies have been discussed.

Tossrock 4y ago

Early in the war, "someone" (obviously Russia) released a deepfake of Zelenskyy giving a speech telling his soldiers to surrender: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zel...

gardaani 4y ago
European politicians were also fooled by deep fake video calls: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/european-leaders-deepfake-video-calls-mayor-of-kyiv-vitali-klitschko https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/european-leade...

selfhoster11 4y ago

That's because GPT and Dall-E are famously locked behind a use case restricting paywall/invite-wall ("Open"AI, my a...). You can already see things picking up with GPT-J-6B, Midjourney, Dall-E Mini and GPT-4chan, all of which are much less restrictive and therefore easier to use for casual creation. Just wait until these things start to trickle down to the "plebs" like us and non-technical people. The amount of compute required to re-create and run these systems is the main bottleneck for now, but once the hardware is there and the models shrink to make them easier to run... that's when things will get fascinating.