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> Rust (from my biased point of view) is currently on its way to become the standard low-level language The evidence seems to suggest the opposite. Other than

by pron 4y ago

> Rust (from my biased point of view) is currently on its way to become the standard low-level language The evidence seems to suggest the opposite. Other than a lot of talk on programming fashion publications that are always more aspirational than representative (such as this site) Rust seems to have reached 0.3% of the market [1], up from 0.1% a couple of years ago [2], and while that is ok growth, programming languages with few exception tend to reach, approach, or at least point toward their all-time peak market penetration around age 10, and Rust is already 7. Any language could, of course, be an exception to historical trends, but there's nothing to suggest that is the case. More anecdotal adoption stories are just as bleak. Even at this relatively advanced age, many companies dabble in Rust — as they did in, say, Haskell — but not many established companies have yet to really bet big on it. The only positive is that among the low-level languages discussed on aspirational sites, Rust is, indeed, the most talked-about language, but history also suggests that that is a very bad predictor of long-term market success. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/

cogman10 4y ago
> programming languages with few exception tend to reach, approach, or at least point toward their all-time peak market penetration around age 10 Notable exceptions from the links you've provided: C#, Java, Go, PHP. All appear to have an upward trajectory today. Javascript has also seen a similar penetration boost when nodejs came on the scene. With rust looking to get integration both into the Linux kernel and GCC, that points to some pretty positive things for the language's penetration. Particular in the embedded world.
- pron 4y ago
  > All appear to have an upward trajectory today. They might have an upward trajectory, but they're not posed to break well beyond their respective records. With the possible exception of Python, how popular a language is at age ten is a reasonable rough indicator of how popular it's ever going to be. At its current growth rate Rust would reach 1% market share at age ten. Again, there can certainly be surprises, but I think it's weird to say that actual current evidence clearly points to success for Rust. On the contrary, to become a success it would need to buck the trend and be quite a surprise. So it could happen, but I don't see much to support the claim that this is what's currently happening. > With rust looking to get integration both into the Linux kernel and GCC, that points to some pretty positive things for the language's penetration. I agree that it shows that the language is taken seriously and isn't dismissed as a possible option, and that that's very good. That indicates that the language isn't an immediate irredeemable failure, but I don't think it's an indicator of future success.
  - cogman10 4y ago
    > That indicates that the language isn't an immediate irredeemable failure, but I don't think it's an indicator of future success. I'd simply point to the fact that there are very few languages that have tried to get into the same space that rust exists in. Even something like D came with an optional GC which has pulled it out from consideration for things like the kernel or embedded devices. When you say "most languages are peaked at 10 years" I'd simply point to the fact that rust is substantially different from most languages. It's not tackling the same market spaces. The ones it is hitting have been slow moving for a while now.
    - pjmlp 4y ago
      While others with GC are used without issues on embedded for the last decade when users aren't stuck on ways of the past. https://www.ptc.com/en/products/developer-tools/perc https://www.ptc.com/en/products/developer-tools/perc https://www.aicas.com/wp/products-services/jamaicavm/ https://www.aicas.com/wp/products-services/jamaicavm/ https://www.microej.com/ https://www.microej.com/ https://www.astrobe.com/ https://www.astrobe.com/ https://www.wildernesslabs.co/ https://www.wildernesslabs.co/ Ah but that isn't serious enough. I guess battleship weapons control might be something serious, https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2402709.2402699 https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2402709.2402699
      - Jensson 4y ago
        Major problem with GC languages is that it is horribly to link against libraries that ships with a GC. Lets say I want to use 10 libraries, if each has their own GC then my program is now running with 10 GC's each trying to optimize itself, which isn't a tenable situation. So system level libraries has to work without a GC, even though system level programs can work fine with a GC.
        jb1991 4y ago
        > then my program is now running with 10 GC's each trying to optimize itself Is this true with Java? I thought it's a single runtime that manages memory in all the code/libraries in your process.
- N1H1L 4y ago
  Yep. In fact Python really started taking off almost 20 years after its' release. People forget that Python turned 31 a few months back.
agumonkey 4y ago
I don't think rust is headed to be the norm, but I don't think it should be compared to most mainstream languages. It's not python/php/ruby.. it's a very difficult niche where a lot of efforts failed flat.
nemothekid 4y ago
>programming languages with few exception tend to reach, approach, or at least point toward their all-time peak market penetration around age 10 How are you coming to this conclusion? I can think of more counter examples than actual examples (Almost every language on the top 10 aside from PHP where close to peak market penetration at age 10).
mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
GP said the standard low-level language. Low-level code will always be a much smaller percentage of all code than the heaps of web apps our industry is shitting out on a daily basis. Thus it would be completely reasonable for the de facto sysdev language to have a small market share overall(unless like for C/C++ there is a lot of legacy stuff to maintain) . Your sources don't shine any light on this at all.
- slingnow 4y ago
  You don't think comparing the current defacto standard low-level languages (C/C++) to Rust shines any light on the issue you raised? [1] C/C++ : 6.17% Rust : 0.29% This was addressed in one of the linked sources. What would you accept as evidence, then? 1: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang...
  - mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
    I think looking only at the number of dev jobs leaves too many potential confounding factors to be useful. For instance, how many C/C++ jobs are actually companies who need those devs to move away from C/C++? What's the overlap? How much of the C/C++ share is maintaining legacy code vs starting new projects? Sure the data says something about it, can we draw any conclusions from it other than precisely the numbers you listed? Not really, not without more detailed data. One thing I would welcome is specifically looking at new sysdev projects over time and what languages they're in. To be clear I'm not taking a view on whether Rust will become the standard. I really don't know, and I've yet to see anything convincing me one way or the other.
    - dmix 4y ago
      Devops and web designer (relatively non-programmer jobs) listings also might list Javascript, Python, and Java, also maybe Ruby for Chef. And there's a ton of those job listings. Github repos might be a better source of penetration and use.
  - 4y ago
mek6800d2 4y ago
"... around age 10." C++ (not to mention C)? IIRC, I remember seeing B.S.'s "C with Classes" appear in ACM SIGPLAN Notices in the early 1980s -- 40 years ago. I don't think it hit its peak 10 or even 15 years after its early development. Given that it's C++, that's a pretty major exception.
- Jensson 4y ago
  C++ was huge in the 1990s, C++'s share is probably smaller today than back then since so much of programming has moved over to managed and scripting languages.
- pron 4y ago
  If C++ hadn't already hit it's all-time peak market share in 1995, it was certainly well inside the ballpark. It's far from an exception.
nicoburns 4y ago
I think the low-level world moves slower. Key players like Microsoft and the Linux Kernel developers are only just beginning to pick up Rust. It's been considered promising, but immature for much of it's lifetime, and it's only recently gotten to the point that it's considered mature enough for core infrastructure projects (which are really it's forte) in the last couple of years.

by pron 4y ago

cogman10 4y ago

> programming languages with few exception tend to reach, approach, or at least point toward their all-time peak market penetration around age 10 Notable exceptions from the links you've provided: C#, Java, Go, PHP. All appear to have an upward trajectory today. Javascript has also seen a similar penetration boost when nodejs came on the scene. With rust looking to get integration both into the Linux kernel and GCC, that points to some pretty positive things for the language's penetration. Particular in the embedded world.

pron 4y ago
> All appear to have an upward trajectory today. They might have an upward trajectory, but they're not posed to break well beyond their respective records. With the possible exception of Python, how popular a language is at age ten is a reasonable rough indicator of how popular it's ever going to be. At its current growth rate Rust would reach 1% market share at age ten. Again, there can certainly be surprises, but I think it's weird to say that actual current evidence clearly points to success for Rust. On the contrary, to become a success it would need to buck the trend and be quite a surprise. So it could happen, but I don't see much to support the claim that this is what's currently happening. > With rust looking to get integration both into the Linux kernel and GCC, that points to some pretty positive things for the language's penetration. I agree that it shows that the language is taken seriously and isn't dismissed as a possible option, and that that's very good. That indicates that the language isn't an immediate irredeemable failure, but I don't think it's an indicator of future success.
- cogman10 4y ago
  > That indicates that the language isn't an immediate irredeemable failure, but I don't think it's an indicator of future success. I'd simply point to the fact that there are very few languages that have tried to get into the same space that rust exists in. Even something like D came with an optional GC which has pulled it out from consideration for things like the kernel or embedded devices. When you say "most languages are peaked at 10 years" I'd simply point to the fact that rust is substantially different from most languages. It's not tackling the same market spaces. The ones it is hitting have been slow moving for a while now.
  - pjmlp 4y ago
    While others with GC are used without issues on embedded for the last decade when users aren't stuck on ways of the past. https://www.ptc.com/en/products/developer-tools/perc https://www.ptc.com/en/products/developer-tools/perc https://www.aicas.com/wp/products-services/jamaicavm/ https://www.aicas.com/wp/products-services/jamaicavm/ https://www.microej.com/ https://www.microej.com/ https://www.astrobe.com/ https://www.astrobe.com/ https://www.wildernesslabs.co/ https://www.wildernesslabs.co/ Ah but that isn't serious enough. I guess battleship weapons control might be something serious, https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2402709.2402699 https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2402709.2402699
    - Jensson 4y ago
      Major problem with GC languages is that it is horribly to link against libraries that ships with a GC. Lets say I want to use 10 libraries, if each has their own GC then my program is now running with 10 GC's each trying to optimize itself, which isn't a tenable situation. So system level libraries has to work without a GC, even though system level programs can work fine with a GC.
      - jb1991 4y ago
        > then my program is now running with 10 GC's each trying to optimize itself Is this true with Java? I thought it's a single runtime that manages memory in all the code/libraries in your process.
N1H1L 4y ago
Yep. In fact Python really started taking off almost 20 years after its' release. People forget that Python turned 31 a few months back.

agumonkey 4y ago

I don't think rust is headed to be the norm, but I don't think it should be compared to most mainstream languages. It's not python/php/ruby.. it's a very difficult niche where a lot of efforts failed flat.

nemothekid 4y ago

>programming languages with few exception tend to reach, approach, or at least point toward their all-time peak market penetration around age 10 How are you coming to this conclusion? I can think of more counter examples than actual examples (Almost every language on the top 10 aside from PHP where close to peak market penetration at age 10).

mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago

GP said the standard low-level language. Low-level code will always be a much smaller percentage of all code than the heaps of web apps our industry is shitting out on a daily basis. Thus it would be completely reasonable for the de facto sysdev language to have a small market share overall(unless like for C/C++ there is a lot of legacy stuff to maintain) . Your sources don't shine any light on this at all.

slingnow 4y ago
You don't think comparing the current defacto standard low-level languages (C/C++) to Rust shines any light on the issue you raised? [1] C/C++ : 6.17% Rust : 0.29% This was addressed in one of the linked sources. What would you accept as evidence, then? 1: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang...
- mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
  I think looking only at the number of dev jobs leaves too many potential confounding factors to be useful. For instance, how many C/C++ jobs are actually companies who need those devs to move away from C/C++? What's the overlap? How much of the C/C++ share is maintaining legacy code vs starting new projects? Sure the data says something about it, can we draw any conclusions from it other than precisely the numbers you listed? Not really, not without more detailed data. One thing I would welcome is specifically looking at new sysdev projects over time and what languages they're in. To be clear I'm not taking a view on whether Rust will become the standard. I really don't know, and I've yet to see anything convincing me one way or the other.
  - dmix 4y ago
    Devops and web designer (relatively non-programmer jobs) listings also might list Javascript, Python, and Java, also maybe Ruby for Chef. And there's a ton of those job listings. Github repos might be a better source of penetration and use.
- 4y ago

mek6800d2 4y ago

"... around age 10." C++ (not to mention C)? IIRC, I remember seeing B.S.'s "C with Classes" appear in ACM SIGPLAN Notices in the early 1980s -- 40 years ago. I don't think it hit its peak 10 or even 15 years after its early development. Given that it's C++, that's a pretty major exception.

Jensson 4y ago
C++ was huge in the 1990s, C++'s share is probably smaller today than back then since so much of programming has moved over to managed and scripting languages.
pron 4y ago
If C++ hadn't already hit it's all-time peak market share in 1995, it was certainly well inside the ballpark. It's far from an exception.

nicoburns 4y ago

I think the low-level world moves slower. Key players like Microsoft and the Linux Kernel developers are only just beginning to pick up Rust. It's been considered promising, but immature for much of it's lifetime, and it's only recently gotten to the point that it's considered mature enough for core infrastructure projects (which are really it's forte) in the last couple of years.