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Logistics Collapse

65 points by mpweiher 4y ago

jonnycomputer 4y ago
Some relevant twitter threads (pointed to nitter so you don't have to log in) https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1544472452373389312#m https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1544472452373389312#m https://nitter.net/Warinthe.../status/1546968367315111936 https://nitter.net/Warinthe.../status/1546968367315111936... https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210#m https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210#m
MichaelZuo 4y ago
Sounds a bit too good to be true. Corruption in the military depots leading to overinflated reports of readiness, that I can believe. Shortage of serviceable vehicles, shells, gun barrels, etc., leading to Moscow just giving up and rolling over seems too implausible. Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or willingness to suffer massive losses. A lot of analysts believe that the most likely outcome will be some sort of Korean scenario, which I find to be more credible.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or willingness to suffer massive losses. I think the likely scenario here is that Ukraine is looking to starve Russia of ammo by destroying a lot of their ammo depots and command posts. Ukraine can use the same weapons they use to do that to also hit defensive positions, without any counter fire.
kn0where 4y ago
So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what stops Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air strikes indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate?
- nickff 4y ago
  Air strikes have a poor record of causing capitulation, even when well-targeted against a nearly defenseless enemy. In the case of this conflict, Russia has not achieved air dominance, and appears reluctant to commit more stand-off weapons.
  - themadturk 4y ago
    Aircraft and missiles don't occupy territory.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what stops Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air strikes indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate? Well for one Ukraine is receiving more anti air which will allow them to shoot down a lot more of the missiles. It likely won’t get all of them but if it gets most it’ll be a lot better.
cyanydeez 4y ago
What is this gatbage

65 points by mpweiher 4y ago

Some relevant twitter threads (pointed to nitter so you don't have to log in) https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1544472452373389312#m https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1544472452373389312#m https://nitter.net/Warinthe.../status/1546968367315111936 https://nitter.net/Warinthe.../status/1546968367315111936... https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210#m https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210#m

MichaelZuo 4y ago

Sounds a bit too good to be true. Corruption in the military depots leading to overinflated reports of readiness, that I can believe. Shortage of serviceable vehicles, shells, gun barrels, etc., leading to Moscow just giving up and rolling over seems too implausible. Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or willingness to suffer massive losses. A lot of analysts believe that the most likely outcome will be some sort of Korean scenario, which I find to be more credible.

_kbh_ 4y ago
> Plus now that the troops have had time to dig in and erect defensive works, it seems very unlikely Ukraine will be able to throw them back without at least a 3 to 1 advantage, or willingness to suffer massive losses. I think the likely scenario here is that Ukraine is looking to starve Russia of ammo by destroying a lot of their ammo depots and command posts. Ukraine can use the same weapons they use to do that to also hit defensive positions, without any counter fire.

kn0where 4y ago

So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what stops Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air strikes indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate?

nickff 4y ago
Air strikes have a poor record of causing capitulation, even when well-targeted against a nearly defenseless enemy. In the case of this conflict, Russia has not achieved air dominance, and appears reluctant to commit more stand-off weapons.
- themadturk 4y ago
  Aircraft and missiles don't occupy territory.
_kbh_ 4y ago
> So even if the ground forces continue to do poorly, what stops Russia from continuing to hit civilian targets with air strikes indefinitely until Ukraine is ready to negotiate? Well for one Ukraine is receiving more anti air which will allow them to shoot down a lot more of the missiles. It likely won’t get all of them but if it gets most it’ll be a lot better.

cyanydeez 4y ago

What is this gatbage