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Polls look pretty extremely variable. Some polls show half of Americans are against abortion. Some polls show that of the Americans that support abortion, supp

• lesuorac 4y ago
  > Polls look pretty extremely variable. Some polls show half of Americans are against abortion. > Some polls show that of the Americans that support abortion, support drops after the first trimester. Those are two separate claims that can easily both be true. A big problem with polls about abortion is that its not actually a well defined term (how many weeks? is mothers life in danger? rape? etc). > This seems like the shy republican polling problem in 2016 all over again. Not quite on topic, but polls did not give hilary a 100% chance to win the 2016 election. Polls are extremely good at predicting events (compared to say a literal coin flip) but lower probability events do occur. Go flip a coin a bunch of times and you'll get 2 heads in a row (25% chance! thats even worse than what 538 gave trump [1]). [1]: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/