>I think this claim contains a pretty elementary mistake. No bonus is a disincentive, because base salaries can be relatively low; not receiving a bonus is a la

>I think this claim contains a pretty elementary mistake. No bonus is a disincentive, because base salaries can be relatively low; not receiving a bonus is a large opportunity cost. If I could get a 400k salary, but I instead opt for a 200k salary with a 400k expected bonus, then if I don't get my bonus I'm 200k behind where I could have been if I just took the salary Say my bonus is, I dunno, 2% of profits. I go put 100 billion dollars on a single hand of blackjack. If I win, I make 2 billion. If I lose, I'm out 400k. Easy choice. Do it! The Black Swan is an interesting book. You might disagree with Taleb's claims, but he's not making elementary mistakes.