3 ms·

There are a lot of opinions in this discussion but I'd like to steer things toward the concrete. Could you people on HN share some numbers? If I get a lot of g

by kqr 4y ago

There are a lot of opinions in this discussion but I'd like to steer things toward the concrete. Could you people on HN share some numbers? If I get a lot of good responses I might present a summary later. 1. How long do you usually spend making your long-term plans? 2. How much time does one of these long-term plans cover? 3. How often do you make these long-term plans? 4. How often do you end up abandoning a long-term plan to do something more profitable as it comes up? 5. How often do you pass on doing something more profitable because you choose to stick to your long-term plan instead?

kqr 4y ago
I can answer for the previous job I had. When I joined, we had a process where 1. A plan took roughly 40 person-hours to make. 2. The plans were meant to cover 6--18 months, although a bit unclear at times. 3. These plans were generally made 5--6 times per year. 4. 100 % of the plans were abandoned for something more profitable. 5. About 80 % of the time when something more profitable came up, we chose to pass it up to stick to the plan. Halfway through my time there, we had a change of process which moved emphasis much more toward short-term planning. The long-term plans became much more flexible. I would summarise the outcome as 1. The long-term plan is built in 4 hours. 2. It still covers roughly 12--18 months. 3. The plans are adjusted to agree with reality every 5 weeks or so. 4. The long-term plans are still abandoned around 100 % of the time. 5. We now pass up on around 50 % of the more profitable things.
nickelcitymario 4y ago
Great questions. For me: 1. There's a few weeks every summer where planning is a major focus, but then evaluating and adapting that plan might take up to half a day a week on average throughout the year. Basically: What assumptions underlie the plan, and have those assumptions changed? Maybe we assumed wrong, or maybe facts changed. So I try to keep an eye out for things that require an adjustment in our direction. 2. I have 10 year goals, 3-5 year milestones, and 1 year plans. I'd like to push that to 18 month plans, but at the moment I only go into any detail for 12 months. 3. Once per year in terms of formally planning the subsequent year. 4. I can't think of a time where I completely abandoned a plan (as opposed to adapting it to changing data). 5. Interesting question. I would argue "never", because if there's a truly more profitable option on the table, then the plan needs to adapt and take that into account. But are we talking about short-term or long-term profitable? I very rarely change my plans in response to short-term opportunities, because that's a great way of killing long-term profitability.

by kqr 4y ago

kqr 4y ago

I can answer for the previous job I had. When I joined, we had a process where 1. A plan took roughly 40 person-hours to make. 2. The plans were meant to cover 6--18 months, although a bit unclear at times. 3. These plans were generally made 5--6 times per year. 4. 100 % of the plans were abandoned for something more profitable. 5. About 80 % of the time when something more profitable came up, we chose to pass it up to stick to the plan. Halfway through my time there, we had a change of process which moved emphasis much more toward short-term planning. The long-term plans became much more flexible. I would summarise the outcome as 1. The long-term plan is built in 4 hours. 2. It still covers roughly 12--18 months. 3. The plans are adjusted to agree with reality every 5 weeks or so. 4. The long-term plans are still abandoned around 100 % of the time. 5. We now pass up on around 50 % of the more profitable things.

nickelcitymario 4y ago

Great questions. For me: 1. There's a few weeks every summer where planning is a major focus, but then evaluating and adapting that plan might take up to half a day a week on average throughout the year. Basically: What assumptions underlie the plan, and have those assumptions changed? Maybe we assumed wrong, or maybe facts changed. So I try to keep an eye out for things that require an adjustment in our direction. 2. I have 10 year goals, 3-5 year milestones, and 1 year plans. I'd like to push that to 18 month plans, but at the moment I only go into any detail for 12 months. 3. Once per year in terms of formally planning the subsequent year. 4. I can't think of a time where I completely abandoned a plan (as opposed to adapting it to changing data). 5. Interesting question. I would argue "never", because if there's a truly more profitable option on the table, then the plan needs to adapt and take that into account. But are we talking about short-term or long-term profitable? I very rarely change my plans in response to short-term opportunities, because that's a great way of killing long-term profitability.