4 ms·

Yeah I was hoping for a more balanced electorate in Texas so the Republicans had to govern better to maintain control. But the Democrats swerve to the left has

Yeah I was hoping for a more balanced electorate in Texas so the Republicans had to govern better to maintain control. But the Democrats swerve to the left has rolled back the gains we were making from the Latino demographic changes.

Bud 4y ago
- gruez 4y ago
  Yes there has https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/930/90/media-assets/image/20220716_FBC168.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/930/90/media-assets/imag... source: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/14/democrats-in-america-are-realising-they-must-moderate-or-die https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/14/democrats-in-a...
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    That shows basically zero net change since 1970? And a consistent shift rightward for the Republicans? (Party manifesto and party actions are also frequently very different. Manchin ensured the Democrats accomplished little of theirs.)
    - JamesBarney 4y ago
      It shows very little change since the 70s but a huge change since the early 90s.
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-is-now-doing-worse-with-hispanic-voters-than-any-republican-since-1996/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/do... indicate Hispanic support for Democratic candidates fairly steady during that time period; check the second chart. The theory doesn't hold up to the actual charts.
        JamesBarney 4y ago
        The movement happened between 2016-2020. Maybe this movement was just Trump specifically became more popular among Latinos, or it's because the democrats are losing the Latino vote. I think they'll probably vote at least a Republican in 2022 and 2024 as they did in 2020.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        So the evidence that a Democratic shift leftwards (in party platforms, not necessarily actual actions) in the 1990s is at fault is the results of a single Presidential election thirty years later?
        JamesBarney 4y ago
        According to the chart we're arguing over the shift didn't happen in the 90s. The democratic party was fairly static between the mid 90s and 2008. But yes a very strong leftward shift over the last 14 years has impacted the last two presidential elections.
- JamesBarney 4y ago
  If you compare Bill Clinton's platform to Obama's to Biden's do you think the party has moved right or stayed the same?
rnk 4y ago
If you add the libertarian and republican votes in texas they have dropped a bit over time, if the dems can run the right candidates and get their voters to vote (and overcome voter suppression) they can win.
selimthegrim 4y ago
As we have seen in RGV lately, Latino is not a good overarching label statewide because it doesn’t predict the behavior of a bunch of mostly directly Spanish descended people who think they’re all caudillos and would tell AOC to get lost if she showed up.

Bud 4y ago

gruez 4y ago
Yes there has https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/930/90/media-assets/image/20220716_FBC168.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/930/90/media-assets/imag... source: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/14/democrats-in-america-are-realising-they-must-moderate-or-die https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/14/democrats-in-a...
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  That shows basically zero net change since 1970? And a consistent shift rightward for the Republicans? (Party manifesto and party actions are also frequently very different. Manchin ensured the Democrats accomplished little of theirs.)
  - JamesBarney 4y ago
    It shows very little change since the 70s but a huge change since the early 90s.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-is-now-doing-worse-with-hispanic-voters-than-any-republican-since-1996/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/do... indicate Hispanic support for Democratic candidates fairly steady during that time period; check the second chart. The theory doesn't hold up to the actual charts.
      - JamesBarney 4y ago
        The movement happened between 2016-2020. Maybe this movement was just Trump specifically became more popular among Latinos, or it's because the democrats are losing the Latino vote. I think they'll probably vote at least a Republican in 2022 and 2024 as they did in 2020.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        So the evidence that a Democratic shift leftwards (in party platforms, not necessarily actual actions) in the 1990s is at fault is the results of a single Presidential election thirty years later?
        JamesBarney 4y ago
        According to the chart we're arguing over the shift didn't happen in the 90s. The democratic party was fairly static between the mid 90s and 2008. But yes a very strong leftward shift over the last 14 years has impacted the last two presidential elections.
JamesBarney 4y ago
If you compare Bill Clinton's platform to Obama's to Biden's do you think the party has moved right or stayed the same?

rnk 4y ago

If you add the libertarian and republican votes in texas they have dropped a bit over time, if the dems can run the right candidates and get their voters to vote (and overcome voter suppression) they can win.

selimthegrim 4y ago

As we have seen in RGV lately, Latino is not a good overarching label statewide because it doesn’t predict the behavior of a bunch of mostly directly Spanish descended people who think they’re all caudillos and would tell AOC to get lost if she showed up.