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>Probably, in Hitler's own mind, the Russo-German Pact represents no more than an alteration of time-table. The plan laid down in Mein Kampf was to smash Russia

>Probably, in Hitler's own mind, the Russo-German Pact represents no more than an alteration of time-table. The plan laid down in Mein Kampf was to smash Russia first, with the implied intention of smashing England afterwards. Now, as it has turned out, England has got to be dealt with first, because Russia was the more easily bribed of the two. But Russia's turn will come when England is out of the picture—that, no doubt, is how Hitler sees it. Unsurprisingly, Orwell here was wonderfully prescient, even as many contemporaries failed to see that this exact plan was the case.

avodonosov 4y ago
You mean Hitler really turned to Russia after he defeated England?
- dang 4y ago
  "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- GekkePrutser 4y ago
  After he gave up on conquering Britain, which is kinda 'out of the picture' I guess
  - avodonosov 4y ago
    Had he attempted to conquer Britan before turning to Russia?
    - lovecg 4y ago
      The Battle of Britain is generally accepted to have had a peace treaty with Britain as a (failed) strategic objective, thus putting it “out of the picture”.
      - avodonosov 4y ago
        I've read, the Battle of Britan can indeed be called a failed attempt to conquer Britan. Althouhg not ended with a peace treaty, wikipedia even says: "Hitler believed that the United Kingdom's refusal to end the war was based on the hope that the United States and the Soviet Union would enter the war against Germany sooner or later." - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II So I am not sure it is really "out of the question". Overall, the Orwell's sentence is not very insightful, imho.
        nl 4y ago
        The prescience of Orwell's comment is that "Russia's turn would come" rather than any semantics about exactly what "England is out of the picture" meant. Germany and Russia were in a military alliance and were dividing Poland between them when Orwell wrote that. So yes, it was very prescient.
        avodonosov 4y ago
        I am not a historian of course, but by that time I don't think serious politicians had illusions about the upcoming war between Russian and Germany. Russia was not in alliance with Germany. The Non-Aggression pact with Russia was similar to the pacts Germany had with other countries. For example, Germany had a Non-Agression pact with Poland, and Poland took pieces from Czechoslovakia when Hitler took Sudetenland in 1938. This didn't prevent Hitler from attacking Poland. The Soviet-German pact was just buying time in preparation to the future war. The Soviet Union had been seeking to create a collective security military alliance with France and Britan against Germany, because it considered the war with Germany inevitable. But after the negotiations failed, Soviets made the pact with Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact#Munich_Conference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pac... We should remember, this Orwell's text is a newspaper article, so may be a propaganda to a degree. For example, Orwell himself multiple times called his work for BBC a propaganda - see his resignation letter to BBC and the famous quote from his diary: > Our radio strategy is even more hopeless than our military strategy. Nevertheless one rapidly becomes propaganda-minded and develops a cunning one did not previously have. Eg. I am regularly alleging in my newsletters that the Japanese are plotting to attack Russia. I don’t believe this to be so, but the calculation is: ... https://orwelldiaries.wordpress.com/2012/03/14/14-3-42/ https://orwelldiaries.wordpress.com/2012/03/14/14-3-42/ In this article what is interesting to me is how he explains that Hitler poses as a Christ or Prometheus, a self-sacrificing heroic victim. (Because I am not familiar with Mein Kampf and Hitler's rhetoric in general). The rest - not a revelation. BTW, he attributes the "Better an end with horror than a horror without end" to Hitler, but that's wrong, the phrase has a different author.
    - nl 4y ago
      His plan certainly was to, and his generals told him it would happen. Operation Sealion (the German invasion of Britain) was planned for September 1940[1]. The German invasion of Russia[2] commenced June 1941. Note that Orwell was writing this in March 1940, before it was clear that Britain would win the Battle of Britain (the airwar that was supposed to destroy the British airforce in preparation for invasion) and Germany would be unable to invade. His whole quote is worth reading: Probably, in Hitler’s own mind, the Russo-German Pact represents no more than an alteration of time-table. The plan laid down in Mein Kampf was to smash Russia first, with the implied intention of smashing England afterwards. Now, as it has turned out, England has got to be dealt with first, because Russia was the more easily bribed of the two. But Russia’s turn will come when England is out of the picture—that, no doubt, is how Hitler sees it. Whether it will turn out that way is of course a different question. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
      - mhh__ 4y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion_(wargame) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion_(wargame) They war gamed Sea Lion with actual Nazis around at the time.
      - ncmncm 4y ago
        Britain did not in fact "win" the Battle of Britain. It ended with a hard-fought draw, where Germany had needed a clear win before invasion. The hard-fought draw was just hard enough. By its end, Russia was massing its troops at the border with Germany, by all appearances preparatory to its own invasion. That is why its cities were almost undefended when the German tanks rolled past them, cutting their supply lines.
        nl 4y ago
        > Britain did not in fact "win" the Battle of Britain. It ended with a hard-fought draw, where Germany had needed a clear win before invasion. What a weird take! In what possible way is the stopping of the enemies goals interpreted as anything except a win? That's like saying "X tried to invade Y, but Y threw than back. So it was a draw" > By its end, Russia was massing its troops at the border with Germany, by all appearances preparatory to its own invasion. It's almost certian that Stalin did not intend to attack Germany in 1941, and no evidence at all that Hitler thought he was planning to attack[1]. The opposing theory is based on Viktor Suvorov's book in the 1980s, but it isn't widely supported. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controv...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
LAC-Tech 4y ago
This was not a rare view at the time, was it? IIRC a lot of people saw it coming.
- Ralfp 4y ago
  It was always matter of when and who will betray the other in Nazi-USSR pact. AFAIR NY Times even mentioned this in their story on the pact from august 1939.
- helloworld11 4y ago
  Rare view? Maybe not, but neither was it widely assumed or a sure thing in the eyes of many contemporaries. Even inside Germany, inside Hitler's own government, quite a few well-placed people thought that the alliance with Stalin might be made to last quite a while as a pragmatic, mutually useful thing. There was even good logic for the notion: Stalin's own government almost certainly had no intention of actually attacking and trying to invade the Reich. What Stalin wanted most from the pact was enough time to fortify soviet defenses against a possible eventual German attack while grabbing up as much territory under the pact's leeway points as he could. Hitler's fear was in letting that go on for too long, to the point that the USSR would be much more difficult to invade.
deleted 4y ago
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avodonosov 4y ago

You mean Hitler really turned to Russia after he defeated England?

dang 4y ago
"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
GekkePrutser 4y ago
After he gave up on conquering Britain, which is kinda 'out of the picture' I guess
- avodonosov 4y ago
  Had he attempted to conquer Britan before turning to Russia?
  - lovecg 4y ago
    The Battle of Britain is generally accepted to have had a peace treaty with Britain as a (failed) strategic objective, thus putting it “out of the picture”.
    - avodonosov 4y ago
      I've read, the Battle of Britan can indeed be called a failed attempt to conquer Britan. Althouhg not ended with a peace treaty, wikipedia even says: "Hitler believed that the United Kingdom's refusal to end the war was based on the hope that the United States and the Soviet Union would enter the war against Germany sooner or later." - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II So I am not sure it is really "out of the question". Overall, the Orwell's sentence is not very insightful, imho.
      - nl 4y ago
        The prescience of Orwell's comment is that "Russia's turn would come" rather than any semantics about exactly what "England is out of the picture" meant. Germany and Russia were in a military alliance and were dividing Poland between them when Orwell wrote that. So yes, it was very prescient.
        avodonosov 4y ago
        I am not a historian of course, but by that time I don't think serious politicians had illusions about the upcoming war between Russian and Germany. Russia was not in alliance with Germany. The Non-Aggression pact with Russia was similar to the pacts Germany had with other countries. For example, Germany had a Non-Agression pact with Poland, and Poland took pieces from Czechoslovakia when Hitler took Sudetenland in 1938. This didn't prevent Hitler from attacking Poland. The Soviet-German pact was just buying time in preparation to the future war. The Soviet Union had been seeking to create a collective security military alliance with France and Britan against Germany, because it considered the war with Germany inevitable. But after the negotiations failed, Soviets made the pact with Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact#Munich_Conference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pac... We should remember, this Orwell's text is a newspaper article, so may be a propaganda to a degree. For example, Orwell himself multiple times called his work for BBC a propaganda - see his resignation letter to BBC and the famous quote from his diary: > Our radio strategy is even more hopeless than our military strategy. Nevertheless one rapidly becomes propaganda-minded and develops a cunning one did not previously have. Eg. I am regularly alleging in my newsletters that the Japanese are plotting to attack Russia. I don’t believe this to be so, but the calculation is: ... https://orwelldiaries.wordpress.com/2012/03/14/14-3-42/ https://orwelldiaries.wordpress.com/2012/03/14/14-3-42/ In this article what is interesting to me is how he explains that Hitler poses as a Christ or Prometheus, a self-sacrificing heroic victim. (Because I am not familiar with Mein Kampf and Hitler's rhetoric in general). The rest - not a revelation. BTW, he attributes the "Better an end with horror than a horror without end" to Hitler, but that's wrong, the phrase has a different author.
  - nl 4y ago
    His plan certainly was to, and his generals told him it would happen. Operation Sealion (the German invasion of Britain) was planned for September 1940[1]. The German invasion of Russia[2] commenced June 1941. Note that Orwell was writing this in March 1940, before it was clear that Britain would win the Battle of Britain (the airwar that was supposed to destroy the British airforce in preparation for invasion) and Germany would be unable to invade. His whole quote is worth reading: Probably, in Hitler’s own mind, the Russo-German Pact represents no more than an alteration of time-table. The plan laid down in Mein Kampf was to smash Russia first, with the implied intention of smashing England afterwards. Now, as it has turned out, England has got to be dealt with first, because Russia was the more easily bribed of the two. But Russia’s turn will come when England is out of the picture—that, no doubt, is how Hitler sees it. Whether it will turn out that way is of course a different question. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
    - mhh__ 4y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion_(wargame) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion_(wargame) They war gamed Sea Lion with actual Nazis around at the time.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Britain did not in fact "win" the Battle of Britain. It ended with a hard-fought draw, where Germany had needed a clear win before invasion. The hard-fought draw was just hard enough. By its end, Russia was massing its troops at the border with Germany, by all appearances preparatory to its own invasion. That is why its cities were almost undefended when the German tanks rolled past them, cutting their supply lines.
      - nl 4y ago
        > Britain did not in fact "win" the Battle of Britain. It ended with a hard-fought draw, where Germany had needed a clear win before invasion. What a weird take! In what possible way is the stopping of the enemies goals interpreted as anything except a win? That's like saying "X tried to invade Y, but Y threw than back. So it was a draw" > By its end, Russia was massing its troops at the border with Germany, by all appearances preparatory to its own invasion. It's almost certian that Stalin did not intend to attack Germany in 1941, and no evidence at all that Hitler thought he was planning to attack[1]. The opposing theory is based on Viktor Suvorov's book in the 1980s, but it isn't widely supported. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controv...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

LAC-Tech 4y ago

This was not a rare view at the time, was it? IIRC a lot of people saw it coming.

Ralfp 4y ago
It was always matter of when and who will betray the other in Nazi-USSR pact. AFAIR NY Times even mentioned this in their story on the pact from august 1939.
helloworld11 4y ago
Rare view? Maybe not, but neither was it widely assumed or a sure thing in the eyes of many contemporaries. Even inside Germany, inside Hitler's own government, quite a few well-placed people thought that the alliance with Stalin might be made to last quite a while as a pragmatic, mutually useful thing. There was even good logic for the notion: Stalin's own government almost certainly had no intention of actually attacking and trying to invade the Reich. What Stalin wanted most from the pact was enough time to fortify soviet defenses against a possible eventual German attack while grabbing up as much territory under the pact's leeway points as he could. Hitler's fear was in letting that go on for too long, to the point that the USSR would be much more difficult to invade.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]