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Would be far more interesting if he considered the local labor market and how that's going to interact with all of this. I'd also like to know why he thinks th

Would be far more interesting if he considered the local labor market and how that's going to interact with all of this. I'd also like to know why he thinks the GDP per capital will be 10x higher on Mars, or where the "virtually unlimited" amount of supplies will actually be stored. There's a massive difference between "just in time" production and "stockpile" production. This seems to view the problem down one dimension, and I don't find the analysis particularly satisfying or complete.

rkagerer 4y ago
why he thinks the GDP per capital will be 10x higher We'll, it's all somewhat pie in the sky predictions. But I don't think that's intended as an assumption, but rather an argued outcome predicted by the other assumptions and mechanics of his model (annual tonnes-per-capita of consumption of various classes of goods, $/T, etc).
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
What was the GDP/capita of the early colonies relative to their source populations? An order of magnitude wouldn’t surprise me given the initial and ongoing selection pressure.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Order of magnitude more? Or less? Back home, they had centuries worth of physical plant to rely on. Colonists have to make do with what can be cobbled up on the spot.
blamestross 4y ago
As long as the contents don't mind being in vacuum, a mylar bag will last a long time just sitting in a field on Mars. No not much 02 to oxidize things, not even enough air for wind to cause dust abrasion. As much as I love "The Martian", once you get there and pay the prices of setting up shop it is likely to be very stable. Daily and seasonal thermal shock will be the primary force of erosion. Dead planets are nice that way.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  But, abundant ionizing UV radiation. And perchlorate dust. So, maybe not so nice.
  - blamestross 4y ago
    I started to write a "A cardboard box" but then thought of UV and switched to mylar. Doing some research I can't find much direct discussion of perchlorate and mylar, but they do ship it in mylar bags.

rkagerer 4y ago

why he thinks the GDP per capital will be 10x higher We'll, it's all somewhat pie in the sky predictions. But I don't think that's intended as an assumption, but rather an argued outcome predicted by the other assumptions and mechanics of his model (annual tonnes-per-capita of consumption of various classes of goods, $/T, etc).

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

What was the GDP/capita of the early colonies relative to their source populations? An order of magnitude wouldn’t surprise me given the initial and ongoing selection pressure.

ncmncm 4y ago
Order of magnitude more? Or less? Back home, they had centuries worth of physical plant to rely on. Colonists have to make do with what can be cobbled up on the spot.

blamestross 4y ago

As long as the contents don't mind being in vacuum, a mylar bag will last a long time just sitting in a field on Mars. No not much 02 to oxidize things, not even enough air for wind to cause dust abrasion. As much as I love "The Martian", once you get there and pay the prices of setting up shop it is likely to be very stable. Daily and seasonal thermal shock will be the primary force of erosion. Dead planets are nice that way.

ncmncm 4y ago
But, abundant ionizing UV radiation. And perchlorate dust. So, maybe not so nice.
- blamestross 4y ago
  I started to write a "A cardboard box" but then thought of UV and switched to mylar. Doing some research I can't find much direct discussion of perchlorate and mylar, but they do ship it in mylar bags.