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A recession has already started? Someone should tell the labor market. There is still substantial monthly job growth. 250,000 in June. Doesn’t sound like a rece
by parkingrift 4y ago
A recession has already started? Someone should tell the labor market. There is still substantial monthly job growth. 250,000 in June. Doesn’t sound like a recession to me.
What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.
- refurb 4y agohttps://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product 2 quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession. We’ve had 1 quarter so far and lay offs are increasing. I hope not, but with increasing rates we stand a good chance.
- parkingrift 4y agoThat’s your definition, not “the definition.” The highest authority on this matter is the NBER. Their definition is pasted, below. I don’t see a significant decline and so far it has not impacted employment. We’re still adding a quarter million net jobs each month. “A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
- refurb 4y ago2 negative quarters is pretty widely accepted as a recession and much objective than NBER’s definition.
- juve1996 4y agoCompared to the job market in February it's slowed down by half. That's a remarkable reduction. > What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new. I wish I had your crystal ball.
- parkingrift 4y agoYou don’t need a crystal ball. This isn’t a housing crisis.
- juve1996 4y agoPresently it may not be but you need a crystal ball to predict one won't happen in the near future.