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The hard part is that the intuitive understanding of probability you learned as a kid is almost certainly wrong. You need to unlearn it and replace it with prop
by jltsiren 4y ago
The hard part is that the intuitive understanding of probability you learned as a kid is almost certainly wrong. You need to unlearn it and replace it with proper axiomatic treatment of probability based on measure theory. Once you have done that and built a new intuition, Bayesian thinking should feel pretty natural. Once you accept that probability is just the "size" of a set relative to the size of a superset and it's up to you to attach meaning to the sets, much of the confusion goes away.
- nerdponx 4y agoI think you can get most of the way there with straightforward geometric intuition, treating the sample space as a rectangle of area 1 and proceeding from there into joint and conditional probability.