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No you laid it out pretty damn well, this is very useful. thank you but at $399/month x 12 = 4800 USD / year (since 2014) is nearly 40k USD. also tough to get

No you laid it out pretty damn well, this is very useful. thank you but at $399/month x 12 = 4800 USD / year (since 2014) is nearly 40k USD. also tough to get an intern to copy anything other than the landing page It doesn't make sense to throw out an offer like 5000. Even at 20,000 its a tough sell because you know that by not selling you will still collect that around year 4. Now multiply this by a factor of 100 and you will see why from my perspective it would be a tough to accept an offer with only a year. It makes no sense to sell a business at 10xMRR because of very high probability that it would collect that in 10 months and likely continue to do so. So imagine now I am doing 39,999 a month, would I accept an offer of 400K? Hells to the no, it will make that in a year (accounting for churn). I really doubt there's people who would accept this offer unless there is serious looming problems to the business. Something like 160 x MRR would be justified here, especially if your revenue has been predictably stable for the past 8 years, its like to continue another 8 years and another 8 years is my thinking. Basically my situation is, I don't make enough to raise cash and hire people (no need one man automation) and turn it into a company nor desire to do so. If I want to sell it I will lose cash flow. Ideally without this inflationary macro environment you would sell it up front for a very large multiple of MRR and invest somewhere but that is no longer an option it seems. high probability of being in business for another 16 years : 40k MRR X 160 = 6400000 but the buyer would try to convince me that it won't happen (it will as its a sticky product that solves a real world pain) and will low ball me to accept $27MM this year and try to break even at year 8. Even if inflation reaches past 15% I would have cash flows that could be adjusted and pass on the cost to my customers. By accepting a lump sump, I would be chump

csa 4y ago
You have misquoted me and moved the goal posts quite a bit. I think you are trying to justify your multiple, and so far nothing you have said has done so. To address some specific points: > also tough to get an intern to copy anything other than the landing page I am guessing $10k worth of programmer time should be able to replicate your app. That’s about a month or two of very good European programmer time. I don’t know how long it would take since I don’t know this product well, but I’m guessing it’s not a long time (and maybe as low as a week). The website would take a day or two max (this I’m confident about). The intern would be a marketing intern, and yes, a good marketing intern could do a lot with a small product like this. I would expect the MRR to go from 3 digits to 4 digits at least. The amount just depends on who the market is (again, I don’t know the market). > It doesn't make sense to throw out an offer like 5000. Even at 20,000 its a tough sell because you know that by not selling you will still collect that around year 4. Agreed. This is why I said it was a bad deal for you, and you shouldn’t sell your cash cows. > Now multiply this by a factor of 100 and you will see why from my perspective it would be a tough to accept an offer with only a year. Lololol… you just moved the goal posts. In order to get to 40k a month, either you have a lot more customers (thereby lowering the likelihood that they are all friends and family customers) or your price is much, much higher (which means enterprise sales). Either of these de-risks your business quite a bit. That de-risking is worth a higher multiple. That said, you can’t just hand-wave your revenues to 100x and assume everything else is the same. It won’t be. > its like to continue another 8 years and another 8 years is my thinking I would bet that you think wrong. For reference, 16 years ago, smart phones as we currently know them barely existed. The iPhone had not yet been released. The tech landscape will most likely change drastically over the next 8 years, and almost certainly over the next 16. Your service might be obviated. At best, it will be able to pivot to the new tech, but that will essentially be a new product at that point, and only the relationships with the few customers you have would be worth anything (and that’s one good salesperson away from being taken from you). > Basically my situation is, I don't make enough to raise cash and hire people (no need one man automation) and turn it into a company nor desire to do so. I don’t think you need to raise cash or hire people. You either need to cowboy up and start doing some marketing, or you need to partner with someone who will do it for you. As I mentioned before, a rev share is fine. That’s not an employee. That’s pure commission. I don’t know how that would work in Europe, but affiliate deals are a thing. > Even if inflation reaches past 15% I would have cash flows that could be adjusted and pass on the cost to my customers. Yep. I forgot to mention in my first reply… you should probably raise your prices if your customers love it so much. Start now. As inflation increases, raise them more. > By accepting a lump sump, I would be chump Yup. This is exactly what I said. Don’t sell your cash cows. Your best hope to sell is to find some executive retiree who wants to dabble in business to keep themselves busy, and the price you’re asking is a meaningless amount to them. If you are serious about selling, I would talk to FEI: https://feinternational.com/ https://feinternational.com/ They are a SaaS market place, and they will give you an honest evaluation of the value of your SaaS. They are motivated to get deal flow at prices that owners will sell at and buyers will buy at — they have a good feel for market price. If your SaaS can actually pull $20k-25k (minus fees), they have access to buyers who will pay it. I’m guessing that they will say that your business has too many vulnerabilities to be sold at that price (possibly any price above dev time), but I would love to be wrong about that. Best of luck!

csa 4y ago

You have misquoted me and moved the goal posts quite a bit. I think you are trying to justify your multiple, and so far nothing you have said has done so. To address some specific points: > also tough to get an intern to copy anything other than the landing page I am guessing $10k worth of programmer time should be able to replicate your app. That’s about a month or two of very good European programmer time. I don’t know how long it would take since I don’t know this product well, but I’m guessing it’s not a long time (and maybe as low as a week). The website would take a day or two max (this I’m confident about). The intern would be a marketing intern, and yes, a good marketing intern could do a lot with a small product like this. I would expect the MRR to go from 3 digits to 4 digits at least. The amount just depends on who the market is (again, I don’t know the market). > It doesn't make sense to throw out an offer like 5000. Even at 20,000 its a tough sell because you know that by not selling you will still collect that around year 4. Agreed. This is why I said it was a bad deal for you, and you shouldn’t sell your cash cows. > Now multiply this by a factor of 100 and you will see why from my perspective it would be a tough to accept an offer with only a year. Lololol… you just moved the goal posts. In order to get to 40k a month, either you have a lot more customers (thereby lowering the likelihood that they are all friends and family customers) or your price is much, much higher (which means enterprise sales). Either of these de-risks your business quite a bit. That de-risking is worth a higher multiple. That said, you can’t just hand-wave your revenues to 100x and assume everything else is the same. It won’t be. > its like to continue another 8 years and another 8 years is my thinking I would bet that you think wrong. For reference, 16 years ago, smart phones as we currently know them barely existed. The iPhone had not yet been released. The tech landscape will most likely change drastically over the next 8 years, and almost certainly over the next 16. Your service might be obviated. At best, it will be able to pivot to the new tech, but that will essentially be a new product at that point, and only the relationships with the few customers you have would be worth anything (and that’s one good salesperson away from being taken from you). > Basically my situation is, I don't make enough to raise cash and hire people (no need one man automation) and turn it into a company nor desire to do so. I don’t think you need to raise cash or hire people. You either need to cowboy up and start doing some marketing, or you need to partner with someone who will do it for you. As I mentioned before, a rev share is fine. That’s not an employee. That’s pure commission. I don’t know how that would work in Europe, but affiliate deals are a thing. > Even if inflation reaches past 15% I would have cash flows that could be adjusted and pass on the cost to my customers. Yep. I forgot to mention in my first reply… you should probably raise your prices if your customers love it so much. Start now. As inflation increases, raise them more. > By accepting a lump sump, I would be chump Yup. This is exactly what I said. Don’t sell your cash cows. Your best hope to sell is to find some executive retiree who wants to dabble in business to keep themselves busy, and the price you’re asking is a meaningless amount to them. If you are serious about selling, I would talk to FEI: https://feinternational.com/ https://feinternational.com/ They are a SaaS market place, and they will give you an honest evaluation of the value of your SaaS. They are motivated to get deal flow at prices that owners will sell at and buyers will buy at — they have a good feel for market price. If your SaaS can actually pull $20k-25k (minus fees), they have access to buyers who will pay it. I’m guessing that they will say that your business has too many vulnerabilities to be sold at that price (possibly any price above dev time), but I would love to be wrong about that. Best of luck!