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Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is

Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is just $37.74? Musk's purchase price is a 43.6% gain over the current price. Based on the comments here on HN (and everywhere else), that's the world's easiest trade. So, what's up? The market seems to be acting like it's not a slam dunk, yet every reporter, HN commenter, Twitter user, etc. believes that it is. Shouldn't people be buying Twitter stock like crazy? Something doesn't add up…

runnerup 4y ago
Discounts of future money vs present money. Even if it was 100% chance of 43% upside, how long will this take? If it stays in court for 4 years like some Oracle cases and you expect to make 9% per year nominally on your existing portfolio strategy, there’s no motivation to switch strategies.
daydream 4y ago
> Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is just $37.74? Because the market (aka investors) doesn’t believe it’s a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October. The share price hasn’t been anywhere near the deal price recently. Thus far the market’s skepticism about this deal closing has been right.
globalreset 4y ago
People with money on the line actually know that people writing for these newspapers are clueless and not worth listening to. Unlike HN readers who keep posting and upvoting this stuff.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  Did you read the article? It says that by far the likeliest outcome is actually a settlement.
sudosysgen 4y ago
Because Musk could stall the deal, or refuse payment, or Tesla could crash before the desk goes through, or Twitter could settle with Musk instead, etc...
dragonwriter 4y ago
> Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is just $37.74? (1) No one, or very close to that, ks saying it's a slam dunk that Twitter will get specific performance, but many people are saying that there is an extremely high risk that Musk will not get to walk away from the deal with no cost (and several people are saying the opposite), and (2) even if the consensus of legal experts was as you describe, “People competent with analyzing legal analysis” and “people with money and inclination to invest in Twitter” aren't the same group. > So, what's up? You are misreading what mos people are saying, and making the common mistake of assuming that any knowledge that anyone in society has must immediately be reflected in the market price.

runnerup 4y ago

Discounts of future money vs present money. Even if it was 100% chance of 43% upside, how long will this take? If it stays in court for 4 years like some Oracle cases and you expect to make 9% per year nominally on your existing portfolio strategy, there’s no motivation to switch strategies.

daydream 4y ago

> Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is just $37.74? Because the market (aka investors) doesn’t believe it’s a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October. The share price hasn’t been anywhere near the deal price recently. Thus far the market’s skepticism about this deal closing has been right.

globalreset 4y ago

People with money on the line actually know that people writing for these newspapers are clueless and not worth listening to. Unlike HN readers who keep posting and upvoting this stuff.

sudosysgen 4y ago
Did you read the article? It says that by far the likeliest outcome is actually a settlement.

sudosysgen 4y ago

Because Musk could stall the deal, or refuse payment, or Tesla could crash before the desk goes through, or Twitter could settle with Musk instead, etc...

dragonwriter 4y ago

> Can someone explain to my why, if it's such a slam-dunk that Delaware will force Musk to pay $54.20/share for Twitter in October, why the current share price is just $37.74? (1) No one, or very close to that, ks saying it's a slam dunk that Twitter will get specific performance, but many people are saying that there is an extremely high risk that Musk will not get to walk away from the deal with no cost (and several people are saying the opposite), and (2) even if the consensus of legal experts was as you describe, “People competent with analyzing legal analysis” and “people with money and inclination to invest in Twitter” aren't the same group. > So, what's up? You are misreading what mos people are saying, and making the common mistake of assuming that any knowledge that anyone in society has must immediately be reflected in the market price.