6 ms·

Moreover, just with the sheer count of VCs, stock investors and other sorts that play with their (or more often other people's) money to try and earn outsized p

Moreover, just with the sheer count of VCs, stock investors and other sorts that play with their (or more often other people's) money to try and earn outsized profits, it is inevitable that a small sliver of them will be wildly successful. It's a statistical certainty. It's like having a million people toss coins all day and then hail as geniuses those who got twenty heads in a row. There is an excellent book by Nassim Taleb that expands on this theme titled "Fooled By Randomness".

WalterBright 4y ago
The ones who don't toss coins all day have zero chance of getting lucky.
- z3t4 4y ago
  But there is an opportunity cost to tossing coins all day.
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
  Can't win the lottery if you don't play either, but that doesn't mean playing the lottery is a good idea.
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    Successful people toss coins in games where the odds are in their favor. Saying if they win it's just luck is pedantically true, but if you keep playing those kind of games you'll win. Keep playing the lottery, and you will lose. Successful people I know don't buy lottery tickets.
    - ekianjo 4y ago
      > Successful people I know don't buy lottery tickets. Are we talking about typical "work hard, relatively successful people in middle class" or "extremely rich people" here? Because the latter, I can guarantee, is typically due to pure luck, despite all what we want to believe.
      - WalterBright 4y ago
        > here? Both. > is typically due to pure luck Gates, Bezos, Jobs, Musk, etc.? They were sitting at home, chillin' with a beer, and rubbed the bottle they bought from the thrift store, and Shazzam! 3 wishes each!
        ekianjo 4y ago
        > Gates, Bezos, Jobs, Musk, etc.? They were sitting at home, chillin' with a beer, and rubbed the bottle they bought from the thrift store, and Shazzam! 3 wishes each! If you read a little bit about what happened in each of their cases, they were at the right place at the right time (and with access to computing resources that most people did not have) usually before anyone else could be. That's what "luck" is all about. You couldn't have become Bill Gates 5 years after he was around. That does not mean that none of them had great skills or great ideas, but that's just not enough to become massively successful.
        maest 4y ago
        While generational shifts are a pre-condition to becoming _that_ wealthy, they're not enough. Plenty of people were alive then (and had the resources required to bet big), but there's only a handful of Gates and Bezos. To make it that big you need to: 1. be at a point in history where you can bet big 2. have the resources to do so 3. be right 4. put in the work All are required. I feel like supporters overemphasise 3. & 4. and detractors hammer on 1. & 2. Now, the good news is you don't need to reach tech-billionaire levels of worth - and virtually everyone here won't. If you're happy with an orders of magnitude lower net worth (which is still in the 99th percentile), there are other ways to get that which don't require 1. You still need 2,3 and 4. That's good news because there aren't many opportunities for 1. (off the top of my head, trends that _look_ like they'd fit the bill currently are crypto, VR, space stuff, fusion energy, ESG, human longevity)
        WalterBright 4y ago
        5 years from now, you will rue today as you didn't see the opportunity in front of your face. Someone is in a garage right now becoming the next billionaire that you (and me) muffed.
  - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
    Under certain circumstances, playing a lottery is a completely rational idea. Even if mathematical expectation of a win is negative, taking into account utility function can turn it positive. After all, mathematical expectation of buying insurance is negative too, but we don't talk down on those who buy insurance.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      I don't buy collision insurance on my car. Haven't for 40 years, because my car was totaled 40 years ago and the insurance payout was so meager I realized that self-insurance was a far better deal. Buying insurance on appliances and other devices is a waste of money, too.
- ekianjo 4y ago
  You are a fool if you believe you have much more chance than winning the lottery. You can play the lottery all your life and never win anything, and that's a hell of a lot more likely than gaining anything from it.
  - tomcam 4y ago
    Perhaps you aren’t aware of the gentleman you just replied to. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright

WalterBright 4y ago

The ones who don't toss coins all day have zero chance of getting lucky.

z3t4 4y ago
But there is an opportunity cost to tossing coins all day.
AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
Can't win the lottery if you don't play either, but that doesn't mean playing the lottery is a good idea.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  Successful people toss coins in games where the odds are in their favor. Saying if they win it's just luck is pedantically true, but if you keep playing those kind of games you'll win. Keep playing the lottery, and you will lose. Successful people I know don't buy lottery tickets.
  - ekianjo 4y ago
    > Successful people I know don't buy lottery tickets. Are we talking about typical "work hard, relatively successful people in middle class" or "extremely rich people" here? Because the latter, I can guarantee, is typically due to pure luck, despite all what we want to believe.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      > here? Both. > is typically due to pure luck Gates, Bezos, Jobs, Musk, etc.? They were sitting at home, chillin' with a beer, and rubbed the bottle they bought from the thrift store, and Shazzam! 3 wishes each!
      - ekianjo 4y ago
        > Gates, Bezos, Jobs, Musk, etc.? They were sitting at home, chillin' with a beer, and rubbed the bottle they bought from the thrift store, and Shazzam! 3 wishes each! If you read a little bit about what happened in each of their cases, they were at the right place at the right time (and with access to computing resources that most people did not have) usually before anyone else could be. That's what "luck" is all about. You couldn't have become Bill Gates 5 years after he was around. That does not mean that none of them had great skills or great ideas, but that's just not enough to become massively successful.
        maest 4y ago
        While generational shifts are a pre-condition to becoming _that_ wealthy, they're not enough. Plenty of people were alive then (and had the resources required to bet big), but there's only a handful of Gates and Bezos. To make it that big you need to: 1. be at a point in history where you can bet big 2. have the resources to do so 3. be right 4. put in the work All are required. I feel like supporters overemphasise 3. & 4. and detractors hammer on 1. & 2. Now, the good news is you don't need to reach tech-billionaire levels of worth - and virtually everyone here won't. If you're happy with an orders of magnitude lower net worth (which is still in the 99th percentile), there are other ways to get that which don't require 1. You still need 2,3 and 4. That's good news because there aren't many opportunities for 1. (off the top of my head, trends that _look_ like they'd fit the bill currently are crypto, VR, space stuff, fusion energy, ESG, human longevity)
        WalterBright 4y ago
        5 years from now, you will rue today as you didn't see the opportunity in front of your face. Someone is in a garage right now becoming the next billionaire that you (and me) muffed.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
  Under certain circumstances, playing a lottery is a completely rational idea. Even if mathematical expectation of a win is negative, taking into account utility function can turn it positive. After all, mathematical expectation of buying insurance is negative too, but we don't talk down on those who buy insurance.
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    I don't buy collision insurance on my car. Haven't for 40 years, because my car was totaled 40 years ago and the insurance payout was so meager I realized that self-insurance was a far better deal. Buying insurance on appliances and other devices is a waste of money, too.
ekianjo 4y ago
You are a fool if you believe you have much more chance than winning the lottery. You can play the lottery all your life and never win anything, and that's a hell of a lot more likely than gaining anything from it.
- tomcam 4y ago
  Perhaps you aren’t aware of the gentleman you just replied to. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright