I’ll add that it propagates the other way too: only those who’ve positioned themselves to take advantage of changes in the environment can get lucky. Taking the

I’ll add that it propagates the other way too: only those who’ve positioned themselves to take advantage of changes in the environment can get lucky. Taking the iPhone example: have you built a team of engineers, designers, and manufacturing experts able to create and launch an iPhone when it becomes possible? One company did. This is what VC types call “creating your own luck”. Being prepared to seize new opportunities doesn’t make them happen, but they happen often enough that being prepared for them has a positive expected value. How do you, personally, prep for luck? By cultivating valuable skills, minimizing overhead and commitments, earning the respect of a lot people, having a well-calibrated risk tolerance, and so on. You are trying to turn luck from a necessary but insufficient condition to a necessary and sufficient one.