5 ms·

Hey, I did that satellite productions a bit less than 20 years ago. The article doesn’t talk about this though. GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite im

Hey, I did that satellite productions a bit less than 20 years ago. The article doesn’t talk about this though. GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe, weather and market data and where able to model the date and volume of crop to enter the market. Fact being that we can get an indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance, thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetation-index/ https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetati... I guess when can train better models nowadays. In the end, these estimations allowed for… drum roll… speculation.

rootsudo 4y ago
That must be fun data intelligence for markets, I wonder how insurance and futures work w/ GIS data. I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting. Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- killjoywashere 4y ago
  I took a pitch from a company early in the pandemic that was pitching last-mile supply chain/distribution planning/visibility by identifying clinics with refrigeration capacity from overhead imagery. The stats were ok, certainly not random.
wolverine876 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- camkego 4y ago
  I believe he is claiming you might be able to make money doing financial commodities speculation, ie, buying wheat contracts at CBOT.
- MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
  Perhaps OP means speculation as in people exploiting the data to make money from commodity futures?
- polartx 4y ago
  Unless we learn otherwise, (as I think at HN we can generally assume users are who they say they are), it sounds like the OP has experience and expertise in exactly what the article is describing. As much as we might want to believe in the merits of certain endeavors, there is something to be ~~said~~ heard from those that have been there, and tried that. Kinda reminds me of the stigma shown towards all the Theranos naysayers that insisted that it was impossible to do so much testing with so little blood!
- xattt 4y ago
  He is claiming that food and crops are being monetized the same way speculators turf on other necessary things like housing.
- Rebelgecko 4y ago
  I think it's a pun. In addition to the meaning of "to be curious about", speculation can also refer to certain types of financial transactions... especially those that would take into account foreknowledge of crop yields.
- _jal 4y ago
  How do you even get to "anti-science" from using GIS for investing? I'd say people are getting way too twitchy with their witch hunts, but I don't even see how you get from here to there. Just bizarre, and worrisome.
- quickthrowman 4y ago
  - dang 4y ago
    > What on earth are you talking about? Can you please omit swipes from your HN comments? They break the site guidelines and degrade discussion. Your comment would be fine without that bit. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - quickthrowman 4y ago
      I will refrain from swiping at people in the future. Thanks for the reminder, dang.
      - dang 4y ago
        Appreciated!
- dghlsakjg 4y ago
  Satellite imaging is great for when you don't have accurate reports on the ground. However, in many areas (certainly all of North America) we already have a very good indication of how crops are faring. Professionals walking through the fields every day are, no surprise, pretty good at knowing what's going on with a crop that determines their livelihood. Go look at the article. They talk to a farmer that knows perfectly well that the wheat harvest is going to suck without looking at a single satellite photo. I don't know about the french gov, but I strongly suspect they issue very detailed reports about current conditions and outlooks just like the US. There is trillions of dollars at stake. What we don't have is accurate weather forecasts past 5-10 days in the future. Your crop might be doing great until a single weather event wipes the whole thing out, and there is nothing you can do about it. This happens ALL THE TIME. You can look at 12 hr old satellite photos and say, "Wow! This crop is looking very healthy". Meanwhile the farmer on the ground is looking at a bunch of plants that just got destroyed by too much rain/frost/wind/heat. Its not that they're being anti-science, its that this isn't a new idea, and probably doesn't expose information that the experts didn't already know.
- dang 4y ago
  "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

rootsudo 4y ago

That must be fun data intelligence for markets, I wonder how insurance and futures work w/ GIS data. I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting. Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
killjoywashere 4y ago
I took a pitch from a company early in the pandemic that was pitching last-mile supply chain/distribution planning/visibility by identifying clinics with refrigeration capacity from overhead imagery. The stats were ok, certainly not random.

wolverine876 4y ago

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
camkego 4y ago
I believe he is claiming you might be able to make money doing financial commodities speculation, ie, buying wheat contracts at CBOT.
MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
Perhaps OP means speculation as in people exploiting the data to make money from commodity futures?
polartx 4y ago
Unless we learn otherwise, (as I think at HN we can generally assume users are who they say they are), it sounds like the OP has experience and expertise in exactly what the article is describing. As much as we might want to believe in the merits of certain endeavors, there is something to be ~~said~~ heard from those that have been there, and tried that. Kinda reminds me of the stigma shown towards all the Theranos naysayers that insisted that it was impossible to do so much testing with so little blood!
xattt 4y ago
He is claiming that food and crops are being monetized the same way speculators turf on other necessary things like housing.
Rebelgecko 4y ago
I think it's a pun. In addition to the meaning of "to be curious about", speculation can also refer to certain types of financial transactions... especially those that would take into account foreknowledge of crop yields.
_jal 4y ago
How do you even get to "anti-science" from using GIS for investing? I'd say people are getting way too twitchy with their witch hunts, but I don't even see how you get from here to there. Just bizarre, and worrisome.
quickthrowman 4y ago
- dang 4y ago
  > What on earth are you talking about? Can you please omit swipes from your HN comments? They break the site guidelines and degrade discussion. Your comment would be fine without that bit. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - quickthrowman 4y ago
    I will refrain from swiping at people in the future. Thanks for the reminder, dang.
    - dang 4y ago
      Appreciated!
dghlsakjg 4y ago
Satellite imaging is great for when you don't have accurate reports on the ground. However, in many areas (certainly all of North America) we already have a very good indication of how crops are faring. Professionals walking through the fields every day are, no surprise, pretty good at knowing what's going on with a crop that determines their livelihood. Go look at the article. They talk to a farmer that knows perfectly well that the wheat harvest is going to suck without looking at a single satellite photo. I don't know about the french gov, but I strongly suspect they issue very detailed reports about current conditions and outlooks just like the US. There is trillions of dollars at stake. What we don't have is accurate weather forecasts past 5-10 days in the future. Your crop might be doing great until a single weather event wipes the whole thing out, and there is nothing you can do about it. This happens ALL THE TIME. You can look at 12 hr old satellite photos and say, "Wow! This crop is looking very healthy". Meanwhile the farmer on the ground is looking at a bunch of plants that just got destroyed by too much rain/frost/wind/heat. Its not that they're being anti-science, its that this isn't a new idea, and probably doesn't expose information that the experts didn't already know.
dang 4y ago
"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html