3 ms·
I think the question is, imagine we built 10 — and got an outcome like: 2x — failed to deploy, mission lost 4x — early operation error, 6mo lifetime 3x — low
by zmgsabst 4y ago
I think the question is, imagine we built 10 — and got an outcome like:
2x — failed to deploy, mission lost
4x — early operation error, 6mo lifetime
3x — lower performance, 3 year lifetime
1x — mission successful, 10 year lifetime
…do we get a better deal building them with larger faults, at a lower cost?
A lot of expense is in developing technologies, assembly tooling, and test rigs — all of which is easier if we don’t need them to be as assured because only 1 in 10 needs to succeed.
- WalterBright 4y agoRight. And if they are launched serially, you've got a chance to correct mistakes in the previous launches. Odds of success increase with every launch.
- mmazing 4y agoYeah, makes more sense when I think about it like that. Thanks!