4 ms·
What is the measure of success though? Successful launch and arrival at the observation point? The 6 month setup period before observations can be made? I con
by mmazing 4y ago
What is the measure of success though?
Successful launch and arrival at the observation point? The 6 month setup period before observations can be made?
I contend that success here is a full mission that yields science data over decades of observation. If we cut down the acceptable error rate so we can launch early, how does that impact longevity?
- zmgsabst 4y agoI think the question is, imagine we built 10 — and got an outcome like: 2x — failed to deploy, mission lost 4x — early operation error, 6mo lifetime 3x — lower performance, 3 year lifetime 1x — mission successful, 10 year lifetime …do we get a better deal building them with larger faults, at a lower cost? A lot of expense is in developing technologies, assembly tooling, and test rigs — all of which is easier if we don’t need them to be as assured because only 1 in 10 needs to succeed.
- WalterBright 4y agoRight. And if they are launched serially, you've got a chance to correct mistakes in the previous launches. Odds of success increase with every launch.
- mmazing 4y agoYeah, makes more sense when I think about it like that. Thanks!