The pi pico w has the huge issue of not integrating it all into a small module/chip. You can (at least right now) only buy the whole pi pico w for integration i

The pi pico w has the huge issue of not integrating it all into a small module/chip. You can (at least right now) only buy the whole pi pico w for integration into a project, so anything remotely size constrained will not be able to use it. Part of what makes esphome/tasmota/... so attractive is reusing existing devices with an esp inside. These won't exist for the pico w. I think the enthusiast IoT space will continue to primarily use esp32/esp8266 devices. If the Pi foundation offers a small module akin to the esp8266/esp32 modules, that might change.