5 ms·

I don’t want to diminish this in the slightest, but the current system was only introduced in 2021 so it’s not like it’s a “first time in centuries” kind of thi

by qubex 4y ago

I don’t want to diminish this in the slightest, but the current system was only introduced in 2021 so it’s not like it’s a “first time in centuries” kind of thing (though it’s entirely possible that long-standing records have been or will be exceeded).

layer8 4y ago
Right. The more informative part is: “This is the first time we have forecast 40°C in the UK. The current record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July in 2019. […] Some models are now producing a 50% chance of maximum temperatures in excess of 40°C in isolated parts of the UK for the start of next week. Mid, to high, 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80% chance we will exceed the current record.”
- irthomasthomas 4y ago
  That's great! Hopefully, domestic tourism will return. No more flying to Med for some sun.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    The forecast for Death Valley this week has a range of 32-49. Being in the middle of Death Valley's diurnal range is not actually a good thing.
    - irthomasthomas 4y ago
      It's one day, and it hasn't happened yet. I'm sure we'll manage. Our Met Office are drama queens. They always have been [0], but they're getting worse. [0] https://books.google.co.uk/books/content?id=CSvCYDh4KkMC&pg=PA264&img=1&zoom=3&hl=en&sig=ACfU3U2SzOtVgcmpn28LJP7pEcI9_ddMxg&w=1025 https://books.google.co.uk/books/content?id=CSvCYDh4KkMC&pg=...
      - somewhereoutth 4y ago
        Don't look up!
      - ben_w 4y ago
        That argument — it’s one day and hasn’t happened yet — is incompatible with your own previous comment. Also, the cover of the Daily Mirror shows how much the Daily Mirror likes drama, not anything about whoever they’re discussing. Even moreso given who appears to have written that particular story and who was supposed to be getting warned…
        irthomasthomas 4y ago
        One comment was on the general trend, and the other on the specific, one day prediction. The old news article was quoting the Met Office. It was the Met that predicted 48C in the 90s.
        ben_w 4y ago
        > One comment was on the general trend, and the other on the specific, one day prediction. To the extent that the general trend exists, it's not just one day. To the extent that it is just one day, it can't be called a general trend. And switching from one to the other the moment someone criticises you reeks of moving goalposts. > The old news article was quoting the Met Office. It was the Met that predicted 48C in the 90s. Newspapers are creative fiction sometimes inspired by reality. Normally at this point I would link to the Gell-Mann amnesia effect, but in this case I'll quote from the same book you linked to ("Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future", which included a copy of the front page of the Daily Mirror on page 264), but specifically the paragraph that references the exact image you linked to: """Newspaper accounts of interesting weather events should always be taken with a large degree of caution (see Figure 13.1) - even those penned by well-known meteorological writers in the serious papers. This is not their fault; it is because newspaper articles are subject to the whim of a sub-editor. The newspaper sub-editor is a strange breed with two goals. The first is to force contributions to fit the space avail- able, which may necessitate removing text, no matter its importance, or creating new text without refer- ence to the original author. The second is to make these same contributions fit the style of the news paper, which may involve extensive re-writing, again without reference to the author. Furthermore, eye- witness reports of unusual weather are notoriously unreliable.""" In this case it's potentially even worse, as it was written by Alastair Campbell, who later worked for New Labour, criticising the leader of the Conservative Party. But it's even worse than that. I couldn't read that text properly because it was too blurry so I looked for the original source, and the Met Office doesn't seem to be listed on that page. The headline "120 f is on the cards" actually says that Mrs Thatcher was at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado, where climate change experts showed her a model that says if the world carries on increasing its rate of carbon dioxide production then "in extreme cases" it would reach 120… "The predictions were for the middle of the next century".

by qubex 4y ago

layer8 4y ago

Right. The more informative part is: “This is the first time we have forecast 40°C in the UK. The current record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July in 2019. […] Some models are now producing a 50% chance of maximum temperatures in excess of 40°C in isolated parts of the UK for the start of next week. Mid, to high, 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80% chance we will exceed the current record.”

irthomasthomas 4y ago
That's great! Hopefully, domestic tourism will return. No more flying to Med for some sun.
- ben_w 4y ago
  The forecast for Death Valley this week has a range of 32-49. Being in the middle of Death Valley's diurnal range is not actually a good thing.
  - irthomasthomas 4y ago
    It's one day, and it hasn't happened yet. I'm sure we'll manage. Our Met Office are drama queens. They always have been [0], but they're getting worse. [0] https://books.google.co.uk/books/content?id=CSvCYDh4KkMC&pg=PA264&img=1&zoom=3&hl=en&sig=ACfU3U2SzOtVgcmpn28LJP7pEcI9_ddMxg&w=1025 https://books.google.co.uk/books/content?id=CSvCYDh4KkMC&pg=...
    - somewhereoutth 4y ago
      Don't look up!
    - ben_w 4y ago
      That argument — it’s one day and hasn’t happened yet — is incompatible with your own previous comment. Also, the cover of the Daily Mirror shows how much the Daily Mirror likes drama, not anything about whoever they’re discussing. Even moreso given who appears to have written that particular story and who was supposed to be getting warned…
      - irthomasthomas 4y ago
        One comment was on the general trend, and the other on the specific, one day prediction. The old news article was quoting the Met Office. It was the Met that predicted 48C in the 90s.
        ben_w 4y ago
        > One comment was on the general trend, and the other on the specific, one day prediction. To the extent that the general trend exists, it's not just one day. To the extent that it is just one day, it can't be called a general trend. And switching from one to the other the moment someone criticises you reeks of moving goalposts. > The old news article was quoting the Met Office. It was the Met that predicted 48C in the 90s. Newspapers are creative fiction sometimes inspired by reality. Normally at this point I would link to the Gell-Mann amnesia effect, but in this case I'll quote from the same book you linked to ("Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future", which included a copy of the front page of the Daily Mirror on page 264), but specifically the paragraph that references the exact image you linked to: """Newspaper accounts of interesting weather events should always be taken with a large degree of caution (see Figure 13.1) - even those penned by well-known meteorological writers in the serious papers. This is not their fault; it is because newspaper articles are subject to the whim of a sub-editor. The newspaper sub-editor is a strange breed with two goals. The first is to force contributions to fit the space avail- able, which may necessitate removing text, no matter its importance, or creating new text without refer- ence to the original author. The second is to make these same contributions fit the style of the news paper, which may involve extensive re-writing, again without reference to the author. Furthermore, eye- witness reports of unusual weather are notoriously unreliable.""" In this case it's potentially even worse, as it was written by Alastair Campbell, who later worked for New Labour, criticising the leader of the Conservative Party. But it's even worse than that. I couldn't read that text properly because it was too blurry so I looked for the original source, and the Met Office doesn't seem to be listed on that page. The headline "120 f is on the cards" actually says that Mrs Thatcher was at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado, where climate change experts showed her a model that says if the world carries on increasing its rate of carbon dioxide production then "in extreme cases" it would reach 120… "The predictions were for the middle of the next century".