4 ms·

Heat pumps are not an alternative in the next few years because there are not enough available on the market. I know someone who wanted to buy one for his house

Heat pumps are not an alternative in the next few years because there are not enough available on the market. I know someone who wanted to buy one for his house in Germany and the waiting list is more than 1-2 years right now.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Presumably this means that every available heat pump and heat pump installer is booked for the next two years, in which case they are an alternative and will make a difference.
belorn 4y ago
Couldn't German industry produce more of them? Heat pumps seems like a technology which isn't import dependent in the way that natural gas is, especially if the government were there to help with funding.
- adrianN 4y ago
  It takes a while to spin up production. It also takes a while to find and train a sufficient number of people to can install them. It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter.
  - danans 4y ago
    > It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter. The same therm of natural gas that would have been burned in a domestic gas boiler, if burned in a modern combined cycle gas electricity plant, can provide 2-3X the amount of domestic heat via heat pumps even in the coldest conditions. In shoulder seasons it's more like 3-4X. The load we need to expand electricity production for is EVs, which use a ton of it comparatively.
    - adrianN 4y ago
      Of course heat pumps are great, but right now the gas is burned in millions of homes. We still need to build the capacity to burn about a third of that gas in combined cycle plants, we don't have them lying around idle.
danans 4y ago
In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now: https://iwae.com/shop/4-to-5-ton-18-seer-variable-speed-mrcool-universal-central-heat-pump-split-system-upflow-horizontal-ha20920.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwoMSWBhAdEiwAVJ2ndqyTpKvWdUn2v-_17COMIcZcOYQPWFQ4_6alPyPRNtMfzbORZsnkGBoClWMQAvD_BwE https://iwae.com/shop/4-to-5-ton-18-seer-variable-speed-mrco... Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse. Why can't they build them?
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now: Sure. Can you get millions, though?
  - danans 4y ago
    I can't, but governments can.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do. There's no magic wand that gives you a heat pump for every European household who'd need one in any reasonably short period of time. Even something comparitively simple like toilet paper took months at the start of the pandemic.
      - danans 4y ago
        > Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do. Yes, but government can provide a demand signal far more clearly and immediately than the market can. That's what the Defense Production Act is for in the US. The lack of federal tax incentives for air source heat pumps is also an an issue. Frustratingly there is a 30% credit for ground source heat pumps, which are far less scalable because they require an expensive trench or well.
- skrause 4y ago
  You still need somebody to install it for you. That's where the waiting begins.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

Presumably this means that every available heat pump and heat pump installer is booked for the next two years, in which case they are an alternative and will make a difference.

belorn 4y ago

Couldn't German industry produce more of them? Heat pumps seems like a technology which isn't import dependent in the way that natural gas is, especially if the government were there to help with funding.

adrianN 4y ago
It takes a while to spin up production. It also takes a while to find and train a sufficient number of people to can install them. It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter.
- danans 4y ago
  > It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter. The same therm of natural gas that would have been burned in a domestic gas boiler, if burned in a modern combined cycle gas electricity plant, can provide 2-3X the amount of domestic heat via heat pumps even in the coldest conditions. In shoulder seasons it's more like 3-4X. The load we need to expand electricity production for is EVs, which use a ton of it comparatively.
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Of course heat pumps are great, but right now the gas is burned in millions of homes. We still need to build the capacity to burn about a third of that gas in combined cycle plants, we don't have them lying around idle.

danans 4y ago

In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now: https://iwae.com/shop/4-to-5-ton-18-seer-variable-speed-mrcool-universal-central-heat-pump-split-system-upflow-horizontal-ha20920.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwoMSWBhAdEiwAVJ2ndqyTpKvWdUn2v-_17COMIcZcOYQPWFQ4_6alPyPRNtMfzbORZsnkGBoClWMQAvD_BwE https://iwae.com/shop/4-to-5-ton-18-seer-variable-speed-mrco... Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse. Why can't they build them?

ceejayoz 4y ago
> In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now: Sure. Can you get millions, though?
- danans 4y ago
  I can't, but governments can.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do. There's no magic wand that gives you a heat pump for every European household who'd need one in any reasonably short period of time. Even something comparitively simple like toilet paper took months at the start of the pandemic.
    - danans 4y ago
      > Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do. Yes, but government can provide a demand signal far more clearly and immediately than the market can. That's what the Defense Production Act is for in the US. The lack of federal tax incentives for air source heat pumps is also an an issue. Frustratingly there is a 30% credit for ground source heat pumps, which are far less scalable because they require an expensive trench or well.
skrause 4y ago
You still need somebody to install it for you. That's where the waiting begins.