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There is an obvious alternative: The West must stop doubling down every 2 months and seek a diplomatic solution. The U.S is relatively fine. Europe is being sc

by klpons 4y ago

There is an obvious alternative: The West must stop doubling down every 2 months and seek a diplomatic solution. The U.S is relatively fine. Europe is being screwed over by the virtue-signaling policies. Europe canceled cheap long term Gazprom contracts and is now buying expensive gas (including from Russia!) on the spot market. Europe buys expensive liquid gas form the U.S. Meanwhile, China is laughing and buys cheap Russian commodities using RMB instead of Dollars or Euros. India resells Russian oil. The policies are a disaster, and Europe suffers from not standing up to Nuland, Lindsay Graham et al. Luhansk/Donetsk are lost. Europe needs to deal with that and ensure that it stops there (don't give me that nonsense about Peter the Great or other propaganda).

Scarblac 4y ago
If Europe gives in now, then it is certain that it _won't_ stop there. It would mean Russia can do whatever it wants, and will. It's war. We have to win it. Yes that is expensive, but Russia commits genocide in the areas they occupy, so there is no alternative.
leoedin 4y ago
Living in the UK, US policy on Ukraine barely registers. It's surprised me how strong most people's feelings are that we need to do everything we can to cut out Russia. This isn't an economic question any more, it's emotional. War in Europe is suddenly a reality, and it doesn't feel very far away, even in London. The UK may have left the EU, but we still have millions of Eastern Europeans living here. Whether this sentiment stays when winter comes and energy prices really start to bite is another question - but right now our attitude towards Russia is driven by our own emotions - nothing to do with American virtue signalling.
btilly 4y ago
No. Absolutely not. You can't understand anything Russia does until you understand that it has a bully's mindset. Anything you negotiate with them just emboldens them to do more to you later. When confronted, they escalate but there is a lot less muscle behind that than it seems. Therefore any negotiation of the kind that you describe will embolden them to reach for more as soon as they think they can. Appeasing Russia will no more prevent further aggression than giving Czechoslovakia to Hitler avoided WW 2. Also you completely misunderstand the war situation. The current phase has been a war of attrition with a slow retreat. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will come in August or September, once Russia's ability to wage war has been exhausted. From projects that I've seen, it is an even bet whether there will be a COMPLETE Russian collapse before the end of the year. (Yes, they won't even get to keep Crimea.) If you want to understand the military situation in detail, I recommend https://www.understandingwar.org/publications https://www.understandingwar.org/publications. You don't have to follow it in detail. For example if you'd read https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens... a couple of months ago, you'd understand everything you need to understand to realize that Russia won't be able to hold the territory that they have taken.
- xglamp 4y ago
  Isn't understandingwar.org run by the same people who drove the Ukraine into this mess? Who were proponents of multiple wars that the U.S. has lost (Afghanistan being the most recent one)? How would we know what appeasing Russia will do when it has never been tried? Not all wars are like WWII. What if this is the same as the Finnish winter war, where Stalin was eventually content with Karelia and some other small parts?
  - btilly 4y ago
    The people who drove Ukraine into this mess are Putin and his cronies. I'm quite sure that they aren't running understandingwar.org. That said, the organization does have a pro-US military bias, but works to create neutral and factual reporting. If you don't like their bias, you can double check with a variety of other sources with different biases. For example https://www.aljazeera.com/where/ukraine/ https://www.aljazeera.com/where/ukraine/ does not take a pro-US position. Also, appeasing Russia HAS been tried. We let them take part of Georgia. We let them take part of Ukraine 8 years ago. We let them have a free hand in Syria. And through that all, we continued to treat them as a normal country. Germany in particular proceeded on a "business as usual" policy. We even raised only minimal objections when they were caught trying to manipulate elections in a variety of countries including the USA. (Without Russian assistance Trump would have never been President.) The result has been the current full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Offering full support to Ukraine is a reversal of our previous policies.
    - tomp 4y ago
      you're just repeating Western propaganda copy&paste US definitely provoked Russia in Ukraine, including the 2014 coup many people choose to believe Russiagate simply because they can't admit to themselves that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate

by klpons 4y ago

Scarblac 4y ago

If Europe gives in now, then it is certain that it _won't_ stop there. It would mean Russia can do whatever it wants, and will. It's war. We have to win it. Yes that is expensive, but Russia commits genocide in the areas they occupy, so there is no alternative.

leoedin 4y ago

Living in the UK, US policy on Ukraine barely registers. It's surprised me how strong most people's feelings are that we need to do everything we can to cut out Russia. This isn't an economic question any more, it's emotional. War in Europe is suddenly a reality, and it doesn't feel very far away, even in London. The UK may have left the EU, but we still have millions of Eastern Europeans living here. Whether this sentiment stays when winter comes and energy prices really start to bite is another question - but right now our attitude towards Russia is driven by our own emotions - nothing to do with American virtue signalling.

btilly 4y ago

No. Absolutely not. You can't understand anything Russia does until you understand that it has a bully's mindset. Anything you negotiate with them just emboldens them to do more to you later. When confronted, they escalate but there is a lot less muscle behind that than it seems. Therefore any negotiation of the kind that you describe will embolden them to reach for more as soon as they think they can. Appeasing Russia will no more prevent further aggression than giving Czechoslovakia to Hitler avoided WW 2. Also you completely misunderstand the war situation. The current phase has been a war of attrition with a slow retreat. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will come in August or September, once Russia's ability to wage war has been exhausted. From projects that I've seen, it is an even bet whether there will be a COMPLETE Russian collapse before the end of the year. (Yes, they won't even get to keep Crimea.) If you want to understand the military situation in detail, I recommend https://www.understandingwar.org/publications https://www.understandingwar.org/publications. You don't have to follow it in detail. For example if you'd read https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens... a couple of months ago, you'd understand everything you need to understand to realize that Russia won't be able to hold the territory that they have taken.

xglamp 4y ago
Isn't understandingwar.org run by the same people who drove the Ukraine into this mess? Who were proponents of multiple wars that the U.S. has lost (Afghanistan being the most recent one)? How would we know what appeasing Russia will do when it has never been tried? Not all wars are like WWII. What if this is the same as the Finnish winter war, where Stalin was eventually content with Karelia and some other small parts?
- btilly 4y ago
  The people who drove Ukraine into this mess are Putin and his cronies. I'm quite sure that they aren't running understandingwar.org. That said, the organization does have a pro-US military bias, but works to create neutral and factual reporting. If you don't like their bias, you can double check with a variety of other sources with different biases. For example https://www.aljazeera.com/where/ukraine/ https://www.aljazeera.com/where/ukraine/ does not take a pro-US position. Also, appeasing Russia HAS been tried. We let them take part of Georgia. We let them take part of Ukraine 8 years ago. We let them have a free hand in Syria. And through that all, we continued to treat them as a normal country. Germany in particular proceeded on a "business as usual" policy. We even raised only minimal objections when they were caught trying to manipulate elections in a variety of countries including the USA. (Without Russian assistance Trump would have never been President.) The result has been the current full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Offering full support to Ukraine is a reversal of our previous policies.
  - tomp 4y ago
    you're just repeating Western propaganda copy&paste US definitely provoked Russia in Ukraine, including the 2014 coup many people choose to believe Russiagate simply because they can't admit to themselves that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate