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Yes, but the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure. I agree on the transition, but where are th

Yes, but the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure. I agree on the transition, but where are the bids, construction, etc for new LNG terminals and other replacements? All I see is "Putin bad" talk and no action on what's actually required. But hey, at least no more Russian athletes and violinists!

atlasunshrugged 4y ago
Europe announced a REPower initiative to speed up investments in alternatives; the problem that they have is that no one wants to build more LNG infrastructure because that's a 20+yr commitment to gas that has some environmental impact and want to go full renewable but this is quite slow to do (and of course is hugely dependent on China which controls the processed critical mineral market). Also, German environmentalists especially do not want to build nuclear facilities, so the options for the government to respond with are limited. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_...
- cpursley 4y ago
  Thanks for the share!
kennywinker 4y ago
> the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure I’m not sure that’s an accurate summary of the situation. > "If the goal is a quick and complete collapse of the Russian economy, then no, sanctions are not working because the Russian economy is still functioning. But if the goal is to weaken Russia economically over time, then sanctions are 100% working." https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actu...
- cpursley 4y ago
  Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more independent and resilient. If anything, people have underestimated Russia in a big way. Well, those who weren't paying attention.
  - kennywinker 4y ago
    You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.
    - cpursley 4y ago
      Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").
      - kennywinker 4y ago
        Weird ad-homenums: political science is not a science. He’s not an economist. He’s young. He has an anti-russian bias (he’s literally russian… perhaps you mean anti putin bias?) The point you just ceded was exactly my point. Not all experts agree. You said originally that sanctions were “obviously not working”. If it was so obvious, wouldn’t the experts agree? Either way, I’m not resting my entire world view on the word of one man in an npr article. So attacking him doesn’t matter to the point. I’m saying I’ve yet to hear anyone credible, i.e. outside of comments sections, say what you are saying. Instead of attacking the expert I’ve cited, maybe bring your own expert to the table? Just make sure they’re old, are definitely an economist, they love putin, and have never studied polisci in their life.
deleted 4y ago
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atlasunshrugged 4y ago

Europe announced a REPower initiative to speed up investments in alternatives; the problem that they have is that no one wants to build more LNG infrastructure because that's a 20+yr commitment to gas that has some environmental impact and want to go full renewable but this is quite slow to do (and of course is hugely dependent on China which controls the processed critical mineral market). Also, German environmentalists especially do not want to build nuclear facilities, so the options for the government to respond with are limited. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_...

cpursley 4y ago
Thanks for the share!

kennywinker 4y ago

> the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure I’m not sure that’s an accurate summary of the situation. > "If the goal is a quick and complete collapse of the Russian economy, then no, sanctions are not working because the Russian economy is still functioning. But if the goal is to weaken Russia economically over time, then sanctions are 100% working." https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actu...

cpursley 4y ago
Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more independent and resilient. If anything, people have underestimated Russia in a big way. Well, those who weren't paying attention.
- kennywinker 4y ago
  You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").
    - kennywinker 4y ago
      Weird ad-homenums: political science is not a science. He’s not an economist. He’s young. He has an anti-russian bias (he’s literally russian… perhaps you mean anti putin bias?) The point you just ceded was exactly my point. Not all experts agree. You said originally that sanctions were “obviously not working”. If it was so obvious, wouldn’t the experts agree? Either way, I’m not resting my entire world view on the word of one man in an npr article. So attacking him doesn’t matter to the point. I’m saying I’ve yet to hear anyone credible, i.e. outside of comments sections, say what you are saying. Instead of attacking the expert I’ve cited, maybe bring your own expert to the table? Just make sure they’re old, are definitely an economist, they love putin, and have never studied polisci in their life.

deleted 4y ago

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