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The thing that the west is unwilling to do is give the Ukrainians cruise missiles. The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibr and Iskander

The thing that the west is unwilling to do is give the Ukrainians cruise missiles. The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibr and Iskander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference.

inglor_cz 4y ago
What difference? They hit random civilian targets far behind the frontline. This makes people angry, but does not significantly contribute to attrition of the Ukrainian military. The recent cruise missile hits in Ukrainian cities haven't helped the Russians acquire even a square inch of new territory.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  I don't understand this terror tactic either. * It will only more cement Ukrainians against them * It will have no negative influence on Ukrainian military nor aviation. * Ukraine will use those attacks in their own propaganda to get more weapons and money from the West. So those attacks are a waste of military assets with marginally negative gain. Who in Russian leadership is planning those dumb attacks?
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    Rationally, this war wouldn't even start. We are too rational here on HN to try to emulate/parse/analyze the decision making involved. There is a big dollop of madness there.
  - philistine 4y ago
    Think instead of the people who have authority over these weapon systems. How much time they spent training to use those weapons. How important it must feel to them that their weapons are used. The fact that the intelligence needed to give them valuable targets is a secondary concern. Their main concern is the readiness and cohesion that come from pressing the fire button.
qaq 4y ago
Well west is unwilling to supply modern tanks so Cruise missles look to be def. of the table. Ukraine is even short on basic armored personnel carriers and even regular consumer trucks widely used by military (mostly supplied by volunteers).
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  This is not really about "willingness". Modern Western tanks are a logistical nightmare, and Ukrainian logistical capabilities to support them are limited. In order not to overextend them, everyone concentrates on doing what is most effective. In the case of this war at this very moment, it is long range high precision artillery. HIMARS eats rockets like crazy, it needs to be supplied constantly. Once those supply chains are fully built and safe, they can talk about adding tanks to the mix.
  - qaq 4y ago
    I think it's more of a public explanation than actual reality. Even supplying soviet planes is an issue (cause ooooh it might anger Putin)
    - inglor_cz 4y ago
      For some countries like Germany, yes. Others are itching for a fight. I wonder if this is true: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzp17b/in_poland_a_train_was_seen_carrying_at_least_one/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzp17b/in_poland_a... Poland is certainly one of the countries that would love to drive Putin to madness.
tablespoon 4y ago
> The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibar and Islander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference. Do they still have them or have they used most of them up? IIRC, for all the attention they get, the US has surprisingly few cruise missiles and would use up its stockpiles pretty quickly in a war like that in Ukraine.
- adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
  Russia is no where near running out of missiles. they still have a ridiculous amount of them.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    They are already running out of Kalibr and Iskander missiles. Why would they started using S300 in Groun 2 Ground role? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-30...
    - vogre 4y ago
      - mike_k 4y ago
        Any proofs?
        vogre 4y ago
        First, there is no proof of the original claim, other than words of Ukrainian mayor. Second, this explanation is much more logical than the version with russians firing superexpensive anti air weapons to random ground targets. Third, there were photos of these missiles, and they belong to older series of rockets. Russia dismissed these old s-300 long ago, but Ukraine have plenty of them.

inglor_cz 4y ago

What difference? They hit random civilian targets far behind the frontline. This makes people angry, but does not significantly contribute to attrition of the Ukrainian military. The recent cruise missile hits in Ukrainian cities haven't helped the Russians acquire even a square inch of new territory.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
I don't understand this terror tactic either. * It will only more cement Ukrainians against them * It will have no negative influence on Ukrainian military nor aviation. * Ukraine will use those attacks in their own propaganda to get more weapons and money from the West. So those attacks are a waste of military assets with marginally negative gain. Who in Russian leadership is planning those dumb attacks?
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  Rationally, this war wouldn't even start. We are too rational here on HN to try to emulate/parse/analyze the decision making involved. There is a big dollop of madness there.
- philistine 4y ago
  Think instead of the people who have authority over these weapon systems. How much time they spent training to use those weapons. How important it must feel to them that their weapons are used. The fact that the intelligence needed to give them valuable targets is a secondary concern. Their main concern is the readiness and cohesion that come from pressing the fire button.

qaq 4y ago

Well west is unwilling to supply modern tanks so Cruise missles look to be def. of the table. Ukraine is even short on basic armored personnel carriers and even regular consumer trucks widely used by military (mostly supplied by volunteers).

inglor_cz 4y ago
This is not really about "willingness". Modern Western tanks are a logistical nightmare, and Ukrainian logistical capabilities to support them are limited. In order not to overextend them, everyone concentrates on doing what is most effective. In the case of this war at this very moment, it is long range high precision artillery. HIMARS eats rockets like crazy, it needs to be supplied constantly. Once those supply chains are fully built and safe, they can talk about adding tanks to the mix.
- qaq 4y ago
  I think it's more of a public explanation than actual reality. Even supplying soviet planes is an issue (cause ooooh it might anger Putin)
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    For some countries like Germany, yes. Others are itching for a fight. I wonder if this is true: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzp17b/in_poland_a_train_was_seen_carrying_at_least_one/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzp17b/in_poland_a... Poland is certainly one of the countries that would love to drive Putin to madness.

tablespoon 4y ago

> The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibar and Islander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference. Do they still have them or have they used most of them up? IIRC, for all the attention they get, the US has surprisingly few cruise missiles and would use up its stockpiles pretty quickly in a war like that in Ukraine.

adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
Russia is no where near running out of missiles. they still have a ridiculous amount of them.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  They are already running out of Kalibr and Iskander missiles. Why would they started using S300 in Groun 2 Ground role? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-30...
  - vogre 4y ago
    - mike_k 4y ago
      Any proofs?
      - vogre 4y ago
        First, there is no proof of the original claim, other than words of Ukrainian mayor. Second, this explanation is much more logical than the version with russians firing superexpensive anti air weapons to random ground targets. Third, there were photos of these missiles, and they belong to older series of rockets. Russia dismissed these old s-300 long ago, but Ukraine have plenty of them.