4 ms·

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers. If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes heated with unicorn butterfly karma.

madengr 4y ago
kennywinker 4y ago
Not OP but i suspect they’re ok with it because the other option is giving in to an authoritarian regime that is intent on expansion. I.e. war on their doorstep. The realpolitik is speeding up the transition off oil and gas, and energy independence.
- cpursley 4y ago
  Yes, but the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure. I agree on the transition, but where are the bids, construction, etc for new LNG terminals and other replacements? All I see is "Putin bad" talk and no action on what's actually required. But hey, at least no more Russian athletes and violinists!
  - atlasunshrugged 4y ago
    Europe announced a REPower initiative to speed up investments in alternatives; the problem that they have is that no one wants to build more LNG infrastructure because that's a 20+yr commitment to gas that has some environmental impact and want to go full renewable but this is quite slow to do (and of course is hugely dependent on China which controls the processed critical mineral market). Also, German environmentalists especially do not want to build nuclear facilities, so the options for the government to respond with are limited. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_...
    - cpursley 4y ago
      Thanks for the share!
  - kennywinker 4y ago
    > the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure I’m not sure that’s an accurate summary of the situation. > "If the goal is a quick and complete collapse of the Russian economy, then no, sanctions are not working because the Russian economy is still functioning. But if the goal is to weaken Russia economically over time, then sanctions are 100% working." https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actu...
    - cpursley 4y ago
      Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more independent and resilient. If anything, people have underestimated Russia in a big way. Well, those who weren't paying attention.
      - kennywinker 4y ago
        You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.
        cpursley 4y ago
        Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
kuzuman 4y ago
theplumber 4y ago
We can do without energy from a rough state. We have 1-2 hard years ahead but I believe Europe will rebound stronger. It made no sense to have such close relationships with someone like Putin or be so dependent on fossil fuels. I take it as an opportunity for Europe and the whole world.
- cpursley 4y ago
  1-2 hard years? Do you understand how long the infrastructure for the transition takes to plan, sign off on & build?
  - closedloop129 4y ago
    The article mentions a new LPG terminal by the end of the year. This are the gas future prices from tomputer's comment [1],[2]: Q4 22 166.570 Q4 23 114.925 Q4 24 74.050 The industry doesn't seem to expect continuously high prices. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32109948 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32109948 [2] https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5408202&span=3 https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...
  - theplumber 4y ago
    It time of war things can go faster than usual. With the right policy the transition speed will increase exponentially. Cheap oil and gas made the transition harder (politically). This crisis could be a blessing in diguisse.
    - cpursley 4y ago
      Where's the evidence that anything at all is "going" other than talk? The alternative energy sources should be under construction like yesterday.

madengr 4y ago

kennywinker 4y ago

Not OP but i suspect they’re ok with it because the other option is giving in to an authoritarian regime that is intent on expansion. I.e. war on their doorstep. The realpolitik is speeding up the transition off oil and gas, and energy independence.

cpursley 4y ago
Yes, but the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure. I agree on the transition, but where are the bids, construction, etc for new LNG terminals and other replacements? All I see is "Putin bad" talk and no action on what's actually required. But hey, at least no more Russian athletes and violinists!
- atlasunshrugged 4y ago
  Europe announced a REPower initiative to speed up investments in alternatives; the problem that they have is that no one wants to build more LNG infrastructure because that's a 20+yr commitment to gas that has some environmental impact and want to go full renewable but this is quite slow to do (and of course is hugely dependent on China which controls the processed critical mineral market). Also, German environmentalists especially do not want to build nuclear facilities, so the options for the government to respond with are limited. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_...
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Thanks for the share!
- kennywinker 4y ago
  > the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure I’m not sure that’s an accurate summary of the situation. > "If the goal is a quick and complete collapse of the Russian economy, then no, sanctions are not working because the Russian economy is still functioning. But if the goal is to weaken Russia economically over time, then sanctions are 100% working." https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1109033582/are-sanctions-actu...
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more independent and resilient. If anything, people have underestimated Russia in a big way. Well, those who weren't paying attention.
    - kennywinker 4y ago
      You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.
      - cpursley 4y ago
        Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

kuzuman 4y ago

theplumber 4y ago

We can do without energy from a rough state. We have 1-2 hard years ahead but I believe Europe will rebound stronger. It made no sense to have such close relationships with someone like Putin or be so dependent on fossil fuels. I take it as an opportunity for Europe and the whole world.

cpursley 4y ago
1-2 hard years? Do you understand how long the infrastructure for the transition takes to plan, sign off on & build?
- closedloop129 4y ago
  The article mentions a new LPG terminal by the end of the year. This are the gas future prices from tomputer's comment [1],[2]: Q4 22 166.570 Q4 23 114.925 Q4 24 74.050 The industry doesn't seem to expect continuously high prices. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32109948 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32109948 [2] https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5408202&span=3 https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...
- theplumber 4y ago
  It time of war things can go faster than usual. With the right policy the transition speed will increase exponentially. Cheap oil and gas made the transition harder (politically). This crisis could be a blessing in diguisse.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Where's the evidence that anything at all is "going" other than talk? The alternative energy sources should be under construction like yesterday.