4 ms·

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall o

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

toomuchtodo 4y ago
"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case scenario where they run at maximum output. There will be some pain, but this is the 21st century, not the 19th.
- 88840-8855 4y ago
  How will renewables help this winter? All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries. Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Japan/Australia thing. Nobody else cares. They are happy to get cheap energy soon. Short term impact on Europe: - cold winter - populism - crashing economy - gov financial support and more inflation - no inflation control as we cannot let Southern Europe crash, hence, no interest rate hikes Mid-term effects - Expensive American dirty LNG - No competetive advantage anymore I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed. Disclaimer: I have Ukranian roots, visited Ukraine often, support refugees here in Germany from day 1 and was for many weeks at the border when the war started. So please go away with your "morals" and value bs.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    We have different perspectives. Are there challenges? Absolutely. Conversely, the free world ("United States and Co") has strong incentives to not allow Europe (a NATO ally) to fail due to Russia's actions. Direct military action is off the table at the moment (it appears?), but the US has robust economic capacity to assist logistically speaking. India may do nothing except get a deal on Russian energy, but China is in no position to assist considering the economic razor's edge they're currently on (they're even considering accepting imports of Australian coal again due to internal constraints). Also, I take issue with "Expensive dirty LNG." While a greenhouse gas, fossil gas burns clean. It is a fine short term solution until this conflict reaches resolution, as long as you can shim in import infra at underutilized infrastructure intersections. The LNG shipping capacity is not a challenge (although import logistics are, as mentioned), and the cost premium is the cost of energy demand during a conflict. > I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed. Speaking only based on factual information, this is unlikely. Putin is in poor health (shaking in public, puffy appearance likely due to heavy steroid use, putting off events without explanation), and the US will remain solvent longer than Russia can continue its military actions while under crippling economic sanctions. To allow Putin to succeed would set a geopolitical precedent that the developed world can't allow to be set. The American-supplied HIMARS are proving very effective in recent combat ops (per The Economist) against Russian assets, which is a positive sign that Ukraine continues to receive military support. In short, Putin will fail eventually because he cannot be allowed to succeed, we're simply haggling over the timeline. Disclaimer: US citizen, not a warmonger, pragmatic about the application of military force as a necessary evil.
  - TheGigaChad 4y ago
  - zambal 4y ago
    If (and that's a big if) Putin "finishes off" Ukraine, do you really think it's just back to normal for Europe/Russia relations?
  - Comevius 4y ago
    "I have Ukranian roots" This must be the I'm not racist, I have black friends equivalent of supporting a fascist regime and calling for it to finish off a country with 44 million people. Given Russia's past and current scorched-earth policy this would be a genocide, if it's not already is. Even if Russia finishes off Ukraine it would not go back to business as usual, they would still hold the rest of the world hostage with nuclear weapons, and a few years later they would just invade another country. They must be stopped, and stopped now.
- Comevius 4y ago
  If it would be the 19th century wood and coal would solve the problem, but unfortunately nothing can replace the existing natural gas infrastructure. Winter is a few months away.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
dingleberry420 4y ago
There won't be a downfall.
- mythrwy 4y ago
  Oh there probably will be, but the timing is very much in question.
mensetmanusman 4y ago
Downfall is hyperbole. If it gets bad enough NATO might force shipment.
- zirror 4y ago
  What? From whom? How? Russia? Nuclear armed Russia?
melenaboija 4y ago
“The US Is Now Sending the Bulk of Its Export Gas to Europe”. From June 7th. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/the-us-is-now-sending-the-bulk-of-its-export-gas-to-europe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/the-us-is...
hulderKamp2 4y ago
Europe is until now unwilling to tap available resources. For instance the Groningen gas field is not running at full capacity [0] (for various reasons) I think Europe is naive and should expect Russia to halt all exports when they need it the most. [0] https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-be-real-option-if-russia-cuts-supplies-further/ https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-b...
causi 4y ago
the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US) The US is not particularly dependent on Europe. Total trade with Europe, both import and export, is just 3% of the US GDP.
ricardobayes 4y ago
There is, through Spain. There are existing pipelines from Algeria and Morocco.
inglor_cz 4y ago
"downfall of Europe" Go look at some photos of Europe immediately post WWII. Especially Poland and Germany. If we survived that and rose again from literal ashes, we won't be done in by one winter without Russian gas. This continent withstood a lot worse than a limited period of expensive heating.
- 88840-8855 4y ago
  I suggest the following: those who support the vAlUeS should stop consuming ALL products from China and energy from Russia those who dont care should get those products to normal prices This is fair. Then we will see how many people actually support all this political bullshit.
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    "normal prices" - such thing does not exist, because there isn't any "norm" in the markets. Markets develop. Do you mean "pre-war prices"? They aren't going to come back anytime soon because the entire political and economic balance in Europe has changed and the prices already factor in the uncertainty.
- zirror 4y ago
  But that was when we had the majority of our industrial capability in Europe and with aid from the US. We also still had open coal mines and people didn't mind burning coal and wood in masses (which was the primary heat source at the time). But, most importantly, we also had lots of young people. The aging of Europe will be the final nail in the coffin. Who will rebuild Europe? Not the roughly 30 percent over the age of 60 (who, coincidently, ran Europe into the ground for the last 30 years+).
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    True, but we do not have anything resembling WWII-levels of destruction on the vast majority of the continent, so the effort needed to get back on track is an order of magnitude lower. In 1945, Mariupols were everywhere. And post-WWII Europe was forcibly split into competing power blocks, which strangulated a lot of the pre-WWII commerce. Contemporary EU is a common market where goods and workforce can freely flow. This compensates for the lack of young people somewhat. For example, Germany post-WWII was seriously handicapped by the fact that they lost a large portion of their male population in war, either killed/maimed, or taken prisoner by the USSR which only let them return after 1950.

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

toomuchtodo 4y ago

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case scenario where they run at maximum output. There will be some pain, but this is the 21st century, not the 19th.

88840-8855 4y ago
How will renewables help this winter? All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries. Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Japan/Australia thing. Nobody else cares. They are happy to get cheap energy soon. Short term impact on Europe: - cold winter - populism - crashing economy - gov financial support and more inflation - no inflation control as we cannot let Southern Europe crash, hence, no interest rate hikes Mid-term effects - Expensive American dirty LNG - No competetive advantage anymore I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed. Disclaimer: I have Ukranian roots, visited Ukraine often, support refugees here in Germany from day 1 and was for many weeks at the border when the war started. So please go away with your "morals" and value bs.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  We have different perspectives. Are there challenges? Absolutely. Conversely, the free world ("United States and Co") has strong incentives to not allow Europe (a NATO ally) to fail due to Russia's actions. Direct military action is off the table at the moment (it appears?), but the US has robust economic capacity to assist logistically speaking. India may do nothing except get a deal on Russian energy, but China is in no position to assist considering the economic razor's edge they're currently on (they're even considering accepting imports of Australian coal again due to internal constraints). Also, I take issue with "Expensive dirty LNG." While a greenhouse gas, fossil gas burns clean. It is a fine short term solution until this conflict reaches resolution, as long as you can shim in import infra at underutilized infrastructure intersections. The LNG shipping capacity is not a challenge (although import logistics are, as mentioned), and the cost premium is the cost of energy demand during a conflict. > I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed. Speaking only based on factual information, this is unlikely. Putin is in poor health (shaking in public, puffy appearance likely due to heavy steroid use, putting off events without explanation), and the US will remain solvent longer than Russia can continue its military actions while under crippling economic sanctions. To allow Putin to succeed would set a geopolitical precedent that the developed world can't allow to be set. The American-supplied HIMARS are proving very effective in recent combat ops (per The Economist) against Russian assets, which is a positive sign that Ukraine continues to receive military support. In short, Putin will fail eventually because he cannot be allowed to succeed, we're simply haggling over the timeline. Disclaimer: US citizen, not a warmonger, pragmatic about the application of military force as a necessary evil.
- TheGigaChad 4y ago
- zambal 4y ago
  If (and that's a big if) Putin "finishes off" Ukraine, do you really think it's just back to normal for Europe/Russia relations?
- Comevius 4y ago
  "I have Ukranian roots" This must be the I'm not racist, I have black friends equivalent of supporting a fascist regime and calling for it to finish off a country with 44 million people. Given Russia's past and current scorched-earth policy this would be a genocide, if it's not already is. Even if Russia finishes off Ukraine it would not go back to business as usual, they would still hold the rest of the world hostage with nuclear weapons, and a few years later they would just invade another country. They must be stopped, and stopped now.
Comevius 4y ago
If it would be the 19th century wood and coal would solve the problem, but unfortunately nothing can replace the existing natural gas infrastructure. Winter is a few months away.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

dingleberry420 4y ago

There won't be a downfall.

mythrwy 4y ago
Oh there probably will be, but the timing is very much in question.

mensetmanusman 4y ago

Downfall is hyperbole. If it gets bad enough NATO might force shipment.

zirror 4y ago
What? From whom? How? Russia? Nuclear armed Russia?

melenaboija 4y ago

“The US Is Now Sending the Bulk of Its Export Gas to Europe”. From June 7th. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/the-us-is-now-sending-the-bulk-of-its-export-gas-to-europe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/the-us-is...

hulderKamp2 4y ago

Europe is until now unwilling to tap available resources. For instance the Groningen gas field is not running at full capacity [0] (for various reasons) I think Europe is naive and should expect Russia to halt all exports when they need it the most. [0] https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-be-real-option-if-russia-cuts-supplies-further/ https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-b...

causi 4y ago

the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US) The US is not particularly dependent on Europe. Total trade with Europe, both import and export, is just 3% of the US GDP.

ricardobayes 4y ago

There is, through Spain. There are existing pipelines from Algeria and Morocco.

inglor_cz 4y ago

"downfall of Europe" Go look at some photos of Europe immediately post WWII. Especially Poland and Germany. If we survived that and rose again from literal ashes, we won't be done in by one winter without Russian gas. This continent withstood a lot worse than a limited period of expensive heating.

88840-8855 4y ago
I suggest the following: those who support the vAlUeS should stop consuming ALL products from China and energy from Russia those who dont care should get those products to normal prices This is fair. Then we will see how many people actually support all this political bullshit.
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  "normal prices" - such thing does not exist, because there isn't any "norm" in the markets. Markets develop. Do you mean "pre-war prices"? They aren't going to come back anytime soon because the entire political and economic balance in Europe has changed and the prices already factor in the uncertainty.
zirror 4y ago
But that was when we had the majority of our industrial capability in Europe and with aid from the US. We also still had open coal mines and people didn't mind burning coal and wood in masses (which was the primary heat source at the time). But, most importantly, we also had lots of young people. The aging of Europe will be the final nail in the coffin. Who will rebuild Europe? Not the roughly 30 percent over the age of 60 (who, coincidently, ran Europe into the ground for the last 30 years+).
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  True, but we do not have anything resembling WWII-levels of destruction on the vast majority of the continent, so the effort needed to get back on track is an order of magnitude lower. In 1945, Mariupols were everywhere. And post-WWII Europe was forcibly split into competing power blocks, which strangulated a lot of the pre-WWII commerce. Contemporary EU is a common market where goods and workforce can freely flow. This compensates for the lack of young people somewhat. For example, Germany post-WWII was seriously handicapped by the fact that they lost a large portion of their male population in war, either killed/maimed, or taken prisoner by the USSR which only let them return after 1950.