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Of course the flip side is that Germany is going cold turkey on coal and gas in the next few years. Once that process is completed, it will have a huge head sta

Of course the flip side is that Germany is going cold turkey on coal and gas in the next few years. Once that process is completed, it will have a huge head start on other countries looking to slowly transition to being carbon neutral. That's actually a good thing. Short term it's disruptive for sure but it is already leading to huge public spending. Which of course also is the classic recipe to mitigate the risks of any potential recession and might actually set Germany up for huge economic growth soon after. That recession is arguably already happening. I don't think it will stay limited to Germany either. We've experienced those before. It will be fine. Russia may or may not pull the plug on German gas revenue. Hard to tell right now and they don't seem to be very rational right now. But by merely putting the threat on the table, they've set a few things in motion already. Their gas revenues are going to shrink a lot as the result of their recent actions. It's just going to be a function of how badly they need the cash by how quick that process will go. It's more than a little bit academic for me as I live in Berlin which is very dependent on Russian gas for heating and warm water. There's a very real chance I will have to deal with some level of heating and shower issues in the coming winter. I'm fully confident that whatever happens, Germany will figure it out though. Now that it has come this far, I'm actually in favor of ripping off that band aid and get it over with. Putin is threatening me personally with a cold shower. I'll take that cold shower when/if it comes to that. Putin might be good chess player but his poker game sucks. His bluff has been called. And now, we'll see if there ever was more than that. So far it just looks like a country self destroying its economy for no good reason at all.

cm2187 4y ago
I think the revenues will shrink to Russia ultimately as europe will cut its dependancy on gas, but in the short term, the squeeze on gas supply created a price hike that more than offset the reduced volumes for Russia. That may continue and finance Russia’s war.
- jillesvangurp 4y ago
  Of course. The question is when. If they Russia cuts off the gas they basically will just destroy their economy faster. And it's a matter of time before production elsewhere ramps up to compensate. The coming winter will be a challenge, the winter after that it will be solved one way or another. Probably at great cost but it will be a lot less of an issue. Also, Russia needs more than just cash to fuel the war. They are currently cut off from a lot of essential imports and the international market and their army clearly is under-performing because of apparent logistical, supply, and morale issues. I think Germany might prove to have a lot more stamina than Russia. Riding out the next winter without Russian gas won't be fun but it will be able to deal with it. On the other hand, I don't think a second winter in the Ukraine is going turn things around for the Russians either and I think they are well aware of it. So, Putin can commit economical suicide or he can come back to the negotiation table. The question is what he has to bring to the table. It's not looking like he has much to offer.
spockz 4y ago
I’m not so sure Russia will depend on Europe for it’s gas price/revenue. Oil is already being diverted east and to India that are willing to buy. So ultimately Russia has the same income, the environmental pollution will be the same, and yes Europe may have green energy.
- Tozen 4y ago
  However, it will still take Russia many years to do the transition of supplying India and China (and whoever else), to the same level they were to Europe. In the near future, Russia will be somewhat hurting itself, as it's hurting Europe. China has claimed it wants to reduce its reliance on oil, particularly starting from the 2030s, but that all gets tricky if Russia will be supplying very cheap oil and gas or if China will be wary of relying so much on Russia as a matter of policy. It's possible that Europe will spearhead ways to reduce the reliance on gas and oil, not replace, but figure out various new strategies and technologies around renewables and alternatives. Conventional nuclear doesn't seem to be on the table, because of the very long construction times, unless we are talking something like SMR nuclear.
llampx 4y ago
Its cute that you think this all boils (sic) down to cold showers. Typical out-of-touch mentality. Maybe a few thousand elderly and children dying in unheated 70s apartments will wake you up better than cold showers in the morning.

cm2187 4y ago

I think the revenues will shrink to Russia ultimately as europe will cut its dependancy on gas, but in the short term, the squeeze on gas supply created a price hike that more than offset the reduced volumes for Russia. That may continue and finance Russia’s war.

jillesvangurp 4y ago
Of course. The question is when. If they Russia cuts off the gas they basically will just destroy their economy faster. And it's a matter of time before production elsewhere ramps up to compensate. The coming winter will be a challenge, the winter after that it will be solved one way or another. Probably at great cost but it will be a lot less of an issue. Also, Russia needs more than just cash to fuel the war. They are currently cut off from a lot of essential imports and the international market and their army clearly is under-performing because of apparent logistical, supply, and morale issues. I think Germany might prove to have a lot more stamina than Russia. Riding out the next winter without Russian gas won't be fun but it will be able to deal with it. On the other hand, I don't think a second winter in the Ukraine is going turn things around for the Russians either and I think they are well aware of it. So, Putin can commit economical suicide or he can come back to the negotiation table. The question is what he has to bring to the table. It's not looking like he has much to offer.

spockz 4y ago

I’m not so sure Russia will depend on Europe for it’s gas price/revenue. Oil is already being diverted east and to India that are willing to buy. So ultimately Russia has the same income, the environmental pollution will be the same, and yes Europe may have green energy.

Tozen 4y ago
However, it will still take Russia many years to do the transition of supplying India and China (and whoever else), to the same level they were to Europe. In the near future, Russia will be somewhat hurting itself, as it's hurting Europe. China has claimed it wants to reduce its reliance on oil, particularly starting from the 2030s, but that all gets tricky if Russia will be supplying very cheap oil and gas or if China will be wary of relying so much on Russia as a matter of policy. It's possible that Europe will spearhead ways to reduce the reliance on gas and oil, not replace, but figure out various new strategies and technologies around renewables and alternatives. Conventional nuclear doesn't seem to be on the table, because of the very long construction times, unless we are talking something like SMR nuclear.

llampx 4y ago

Its cute that you think this all boils (sic) down to cold showers. Typical out-of-touch mentality. Maybe a few thousand elderly and children dying in unheated 70s apartments will wake you up better than cold showers in the morning.