5 ms·

The fact that the entire crypto market simply followed the public markets in the downturn, rather than being a haven for wealth that people flocked to for safet

The fact that the entire crypto market simply followed the public markets in the downturn, rather than being a haven for wealth that people flocked to for safety, means that "Crypto" is unambiguously just another speculative asset like Art (but worse).

l33t2328 4y ago
I’m confused what the alternative is. If it’s valuable and people lose value somewhere in their life, they will exchange their valuable thing to make up for it.
- dgfitz 4y ago
  - l33t2328 4y ago
    I’m not sure why you’re being so abrasive.
- Nursie 4y ago
  > I’m confused what the alternative is. For years it has been claimed that cryptocurrency represented a great hedge against traditional assets and investments in the case of a downturn. Like many other claims made about the utility of cryptocurrency, this too has been shown not to be the case.
  - trixie_ 4y ago
    Like stocks, don't confuse short term volatility with long term performance. The fed is expert at manipulating short term valuations, but their manipulations only hold for so long before they have to lower or raise rates again.
    - Nursie 4y ago
      I'm not. Cryptocurrency has explicitly and repeatedly been touted as un or anti-correlated to the wider financial ecosystem, fiat currencies and the stock market, and has been loudly, noisily and never-endingly sold as a great hedge against these things, absent any evidence. The evidence is in now, and those theories are a bust.
      - trixie_ 4y ago
        There are many theories about everything. Sorry the ones you bought into didn’t work out. Most of us aren’t surprised that when the dollar is manipulated that other asset classes’ dollar values change as well.
        Nursie 4y ago
        I didn't buy into them, nor was I the slightest bit surprised. The point is that like most theories about cryptocurrency value that originate with cryptocurrency proponents, they have been shown to be wrong when exposed to the real world. To turn it back on you - I'm not sure why you're upset that a central bank currency is being manipulated, that's entirely the point of such a system, to allow manipulation by steering committees to attempt to smooth out the bumps and judders in the economy and keep things on an even keel. It's a good thing!
        trixie_ 4y ago
        I'm not upset either. The dollar is a stable because of manipulation though unfortunately over the long term it does lose value. The cost of stability. Crypto on the other hand I do expect to go up over the long term while being short term volatile. Let's check back in five years and see if that's the case.
        Nursie 4y ago
        We can do that, and I'm not sure I would like to make a prediction about the price of any particular cryptocurrency asset that far ahead. But I'm also not sure what that has to do with my posts further up, which are saying that another claim about cryptocurrency, that it's a hedge against the stock market and the wider financial system, is wrong. If you're trying to say "Well it might work out, longer term!" then I'm not really sure it qualifies as hedge at that point, you're just talking about another investment which it turns out is quite strongly correlated to the general financial markets.
biztos 4y ago
Show me the IRL crypto party that rivals Art Basel. Speculation is one part of the art market, but at this point I really don’t think it’s as important as status. Plus, some of the art is really good as, you know, Art.
- iownzerobtc 4y ago
  Have you seen Art Basel lately? It is a IRL crypto party.
trixie_ 4y ago
For every seller there is a buyer, and many are buying stocks and crypto right now at low prices. And why wouldn't they? The fed is manipulating the market with interest rates, just as they did during Corona. History proves in the long run holding dollars is good for short term stability, but it's a long term loser.
- SamBam 4y ago
  "For every seller there is a buyer" is the kind of meaningless statement one can make any time there is a major downturn or collapse in a market. 1929-1932, the Dow drops 90%. "For every seller there is a buyer, and many are buying stocks [...] right now at low prices." Some people eventually did great, so it's all wonderful, so long as you ignore the staggering pain of the Great Depression.
  - RC_ITR 4y ago
    “For every seller there is a buyer, people still love my art” he says as the scrap yard buys his last bronze statue.
  - trixie_ 4y ago
    Calm down the market isn’t crashing.
- SnowHill9902 4y ago
  The market is like a theater with a small door.
  - trixie_ 4y ago
    I guess it works both ways, people panic sell and panic buy. Neither are smart moves.
- FabHK 4y ago
  > History proves in the long run holding dollars is good for short term stability, but it's a long term loser. Right. That's why one should not hold huge quantities of money for long times, but invest in debt and equity. 10 yr real rates even on treasuries have been almost always positive [1], though shorter riskless real rates have gone negative [2]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT1YE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT1YE

l33t2328 4y ago

I’m confused what the alternative is. If it’s valuable and people lose value somewhere in their life, they will exchange their valuable thing to make up for it.

dgfitz 4y ago
- l33t2328 4y ago
  I’m not sure why you’re being so abrasive.
Nursie 4y ago
> I’m confused what the alternative is. For years it has been claimed that cryptocurrency represented a great hedge against traditional assets and investments in the case of a downturn. Like many other claims made about the utility of cryptocurrency, this too has been shown not to be the case.
- trixie_ 4y ago
  Like stocks, don't confuse short term volatility with long term performance. The fed is expert at manipulating short term valuations, but their manipulations only hold for so long before they have to lower or raise rates again.
  - Nursie 4y ago
    I'm not. Cryptocurrency has explicitly and repeatedly been touted as un or anti-correlated to the wider financial ecosystem, fiat currencies and the stock market, and has been loudly, noisily and never-endingly sold as a great hedge against these things, absent any evidence. The evidence is in now, and those theories are a bust.
    - trixie_ 4y ago
      There are many theories about everything. Sorry the ones you bought into didn’t work out. Most of us aren’t surprised that when the dollar is manipulated that other asset classes’ dollar values change as well.
      - Nursie 4y ago
        I didn't buy into them, nor was I the slightest bit surprised. The point is that like most theories about cryptocurrency value that originate with cryptocurrency proponents, they have been shown to be wrong when exposed to the real world. To turn it back on you - I'm not sure why you're upset that a central bank currency is being manipulated, that's entirely the point of such a system, to allow manipulation by steering committees to attempt to smooth out the bumps and judders in the economy and keep things on an even keel. It's a good thing!
        trixie_ 4y ago
        I'm not upset either. The dollar is a stable because of manipulation though unfortunately over the long term it does lose value. The cost of stability. Crypto on the other hand I do expect to go up over the long term while being short term volatile. Let's check back in five years and see if that's the case.
        Nursie 4y ago
        We can do that, and I'm not sure I would like to make a prediction about the price of any particular cryptocurrency asset that far ahead. But I'm also not sure what that has to do with my posts further up, which are saying that another claim about cryptocurrency, that it's a hedge against the stock market and the wider financial system, is wrong. If you're trying to say "Well it might work out, longer term!" then I'm not really sure it qualifies as hedge at that point, you're just talking about another investment which it turns out is quite strongly correlated to the general financial markets.

biztos 4y ago

Show me the IRL crypto party that rivals Art Basel. Speculation is one part of the art market, but at this point I really don’t think it’s as important as status. Plus, some of the art is really good as, you know, Art.

iownzerobtc 4y ago
Have you seen Art Basel lately? It is a IRL crypto party.

trixie_ 4y ago

For every seller there is a buyer, and many are buying stocks and crypto right now at low prices. And why wouldn't they? The fed is manipulating the market with interest rates, just as they did during Corona. History proves in the long run holding dollars is good for short term stability, but it's a long term loser.

SamBam 4y ago
"For every seller there is a buyer" is the kind of meaningless statement one can make any time there is a major downturn or collapse in a market. 1929-1932, the Dow drops 90%. "For every seller there is a buyer, and many are buying stocks [...] right now at low prices." Some people eventually did great, so it's all wonderful, so long as you ignore the staggering pain of the Great Depression.
- RC_ITR 4y ago
  “For every seller there is a buyer, people still love my art” he says as the scrap yard buys his last bronze statue.
- trixie_ 4y ago
  Calm down the market isn’t crashing.
SnowHill9902 4y ago
The market is like a theater with a small door.
- trixie_ 4y ago
  I guess it works both ways, people panic sell and panic buy. Neither are smart moves.
FabHK 4y ago
> History proves in the long run holding dollars is good for short term stability, but it's a long term loser. Right. That's why one should not hold huge quantities of money for long times, but invest in debt and equity. 10 yr real rates even on treasuries have been almost always positive [1], though shorter riskless real rates have gone negative [2]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT1YE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT1YE