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Of course people prefer to type stuff in a big screen instead of a small screen. In that respect, big screens will continue to dominate, but what we will see is

Of course people prefer to type stuff in a big screen instead of a small screen. In that respect, big screens will continue to dominate, but what we will see is that the screen of phones will become big. You dock your iphone, it becomes your laptop. Apple is working on this, I heard.

mattmaroon 18y ago
Then is that really mobile growth? I mean, it might replace a PC, but that's not growth, it's just switching from one device to another. The iPhone has a long way to go there. It can barely even run flash on that potato chip of a processor.
- Herring 18y ago
  regardless, it's probably the future. All you need is a few more years of Moore's law plus a screen like this http://images.google.com/images?q=plastic+logic http://images.google.com/images?q=plastic+logic I don't know why phone companies aren't scrambling. With skype & wireless almost done, all the pieces are here, if not in place.
- maxklein 18y ago
  Oh processors will be fine. The problem is in heating and batteries, and that is almost there. I am at a certain prominent laboratory often, and I have seen what is happening in that area. Mobile is changing. It's absolutely not about small screens anymore, it's now about a generic app running OS, and the screen is just a display format of the app. Apple didn't see this coming when they released the iphone, but google has seen it, and now apple has also got the message. The phone has become the computer, the question is just who is going to create the first full screen scalable phone that interfaces with a standard keyboard. Your perspective is wrong, because you are looking at what was, and what is, instead of what will be.
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    Well, I see the rampant complaints about the iPhone 3G's battery life, and the relatively slow improvement in batteries overall. It's going to take a tremendous leap for a phone to match my laptop's dual core processor, and have a graphics card that can power an external display, while getting battery life that's tolerable to most people. You really think it's almost there? I'm definitely not privy to any research labs, but I've seen nothing in the past, or in current literature, to make me optimistic about that big of a leap. Laptops still lag significantly behind desktops in general, especially at the same price point. Why should phones not lag even further? Also, even if what you say is true, and they swap laptops for phones, that's not growth, it's just a shift. If they still use the phone primarily docked, where they would previously have used a PC, and only 10% of the time mobile, then it's only 10% growth from Google's perspective.
    - maxklein 18y ago
      Well, it's not a big secret - I spend time in Fraunhofer labs, and we get a lot of stuff that is paid for by companies doing research. There's good stuff out there, but it's just not yet commercially viable. But the technology is there. I ran Windows XP for years on a 400mhz PC just fine. Mobile processors may be slow, but they are fine for the uses that they will be used for in the near future - email, chat, social networking and the iPhonesque games. Also, one can switch between dedicated simpler processors to more complex processors if battery life were an issue. Technologically, I see very little problems with the concept. The problem lies more with distribution, acceptance and all the business interests whom it does not favor to have this out there. Growth will come in that people will choose to purchase mobile devices that double as a laptop, instead of purchasing a new laptop. So you are right in that it won't bring in new people, it will just cause a movement from one device to the other.
      - mattmaroon 18y ago
        Right. Mobile sales will be fantastic for hardware manufacturers in the future. Though I still agree with Dvorak in that I'm always going to be a little skeptical about paying $2,000 for something I could easily drop into a toilet and ruin. Not saying I won't do it, but I'll think twice about it. (I actually did once drop a phone in a glass of iced tea, but it somehow worked afterward.)

mattmaroon 18y ago

Then is that really mobile growth? I mean, it might replace a PC, but that's not growth, it's just switching from one device to another. The iPhone has a long way to go there. It can barely even run flash on that potato chip of a processor.

Herring 18y ago
regardless, it's probably the future. All you need is a few more years of Moore's law plus a screen like this http://images.google.com/images?q=plastic+logic http://images.google.com/images?q=plastic+logic I don't know why phone companies aren't scrambling. With skype & wireless almost done, all the pieces are here, if not in place.
maxklein 18y ago
Oh processors will be fine. The problem is in heating and batteries, and that is almost there. I am at a certain prominent laboratory often, and I have seen what is happening in that area. Mobile is changing. It's absolutely not about small screens anymore, it's now about a generic app running OS, and the screen is just a display format of the app. Apple didn't see this coming when they released the iphone, but google has seen it, and now apple has also got the message. The phone has become the computer, the question is just who is going to create the first full screen scalable phone that interfaces with a standard keyboard. Your perspective is wrong, because you are looking at what was, and what is, instead of what will be.
- mattmaroon 18y ago
  Well, I see the rampant complaints about the iPhone 3G's battery life, and the relatively slow improvement in batteries overall. It's going to take a tremendous leap for a phone to match my laptop's dual core processor, and have a graphics card that can power an external display, while getting battery life that's tolerable to most people. You really think it's almost there? I'm definitely not privy to any research labs, but I've seen nothing in the past, or in current literature, to make me optimistic about that big of a leap. Laptops still lag significantly behind desktops in general, especially at the same price point. Why should phones not lag even further? Also, even if what you say is true, and they swap laptops for phones, that's not growth, it's just a shift. If they still use the phone primarily docked, where they would previously have used a PC, and only 10% of the time mobile, then it's only 10% growth from Google's perspective.
  - maxklein 18y ago
    Well, it's not a big secret - I spend time in Fraunhofer labs, and we get a lot of stuff that is paid for by companies doing research. There's good stuff out there, but it's just not yet commercially viable. But the technology is there. I ran Windows XP for years on a 400mhz PC just fine. Mobile processors may be slow, but they are fine for the uses that they will be used for in the near future - email, chat, social networking and the iPhonesque games. Also, one can switch between dedicated simpler processors to more complex processors if battery life were an issue. Technologically, I see very little problems with the concept. The problem lies more with distribution, acceptance and all the business interests whom it does not favor to have this out there. Growth will come in that people will choose to purchase mobile devices that double as a laptop, instead of purchasing a new laptop. So you are right in that it won't bring in new people, it will just cause a movement from one device to the other.
    - mattmaroon 18y ago
      Right. Mobile sales will be fantastic for hardware manufacturers in the future. Though I still agree with Dvorak in that I'm always going to be a little skeptical about paying $2,000 for something I could easily drop into a toilet and ruin. Not saying I won't do it, but I'll think twice about it. (I actually did once drop a phone in a glass of iced tea, but it somehow worked afterward.)