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Rough rules of thumb for battery production that I heard in 2021: 10x increase in world production capacity every five years. Currently at about 200-300GWh/ye

Rough rules of thumb for battery production that I heard in 2021: 10x increase in world production capacity every five years. Currently at about 200-300GWh/year. Expect 2-3TWh/year by 2026, and 20-30TWh/year by 2031. Volkswagen had better pick up the pace quite a bit.

benj111 4y ago
This is one of the reasons I'm not sure why car companies are getting directly in to batteries. Plus they are locking themselves into a technology which may well be superseded. It seems to me equivalent to pc manufacturers making their own chips.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- epistasis 4y ago
  With the coming shortages of production and massive demand, guaranteeing supply is table stakes for the game of game manufacturing. There is no alternative around the corners IMHO car companies are not thinking big enough with their investments.
  - epistasis 4y ago
    Table stakes for *car manufacturing
neuronic 4y ago
Yes but this assumes infinite availability of the resources required for battery production. Given they are in Africa and Asia, this is gonna be way more difficult in the rising new world order with the shrinking influence of the US and EU as the Pax Americana is dying a slow death. BRICS nations and friends will make the near future very uncomfortable for Westerners used to affluence.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  Out of the world's five largest lithium producing countries, the largest one by far is Australia, only China is in Asia, and half the world's reserves are in South America anyway. The US will simply do whatever it always did and, should the need arise, simply putsch away whoever governs these reserves. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_Triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_Triangle
  - jopsen 4y ago
    Or companies will find alternatives. Or someone will start digging for raw materials in a place that isn't hostile.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  Yeah, every non "western" country is just longing for suicide russia style.
- epistasis 4y ago
  30TWh/year in 2031 is not infinite, and is in fact quite finite... Also, essential minerals are alllllll over, only some (cobalt nickel) are concentrated in a few areas and those are actively being minimized and eliminated from future chemistries.
- philjohn 4y ago
  Isn't saltwater lithium extraction close to being a thing, as well as recycling?
randomly123 4y ago
hi. interesting stats. Could you please give some references for this? thanks.
- epistasis 4y ago
  I appear to have lost my bookmark, it was about 30 minutes in to an episode of the podcast The Energy Gang, or their sister podcast, during an interview with a CEO that has raised nearly a billion dollars over the years for battery related businesses. This is vague enough that perhaps you shouldn't take my word, but I unfortunately don't have the 15 minutes this weekend to track it down... if I find it again I will try to email you.

benj111 4y ago

This is one of the reasons I'm not sure why car companies are getting directly in to batteries. Plus they are locking themselves into a technology which may well be superseded. It seems to me equivalent to pc manufacturers making their own chips.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
epistasis 4y ago
With the coming shortages of production and massive demand, guaranteeing supply is table stakes for the game of game manufacturing. There is no alternative around the corners IMHO car companies are not thinking big enough with their investments.
- epistasis 4y ago
  Table stakes for *car manufacturing

neuronic 4y ago

Yes but this assumes infinite availability of the resources required for battery production. Given they are in Africa and Asia, this is gonna be way more difficult in the rising new world order with the shrinking influence of the US and EU as the Pax Americana is dying a slow death. BRICS nations and friends will make the near future very uncomfortable for Westerners used to affluence.

mschuster91 4y ago
Out of the world's five largest lithium producing countries, the largest one by far is Australia, only China is in Asia, and half the world's reserves are in South America anyway. The US will simply do whatever it always did and, should the need arise, simply putsch away whoever governs these reserves. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_Triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_Triangle
- jopsen 4y ago
  Or companies will find alternatives. Or someone will start digging for raw materials in a place that isn't hostile.
KptMarchewa 4y ago
Yeah, every non "western" country is just longing for suicide russia style.
epistasis 4y ago
30TWh/year in 2031 is not infinite, and is in fact quite finite... Also, essential minerals are alllllll over, only some (cobalt nickel) are concentrated in a few areas and those are actively being minimized and eliminated from future chemistries.
philjohn 4y ago
Isn't saltwater lithium extraction close to being a thing, as well as recycling?

randomly123 4y ago

hi. interesting stats. Could you please give some references for this? thanks.

epistasis 4y ago
I appear to have lost my bookmark, it was about 30 minutes in to an episode of the podcast The Energy Gang, or their sister podcast, during an interview with a CEO that has raised nearly a billion dollars over the years for battery related businesses. This is vague enough that perhaps you shouldn't take my word, but I unfortunately don't have the 15 minutes this weekend to track it down... if I find it again I will try to email you.