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I think the way good investors look at it is based on the potential impact vs investment size. Yes, investment in Helion is likely huge, 100x the cost of devel
by pedalpete 4y ago
I think the way good investors look at it is based on the potential impact vs investment size.
Yes, investment in Helion is likely huge, 100x the cost of developing a SaaS app, but IF it works, the payoff is likely 1000x the return of a SaaS app.
This can't be ignored when looking at investments. Most investments will fail, but the larger investments won't necessarily fail at a higher rate than smaller investments. Market size to investment size must be considered along with probability of success.
Investors know they can't judge probability of success very well. But they try to judge opportunity return size.
This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be.
When you are looking at energy, it isn't difficult to figure out just how large the opportunity is, the risk is all in the execution of the technology.
- edanm 4y ago> This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be. What a great example, and great way to think about this phenomenon. I completely agree with your post and have known about these dynamics of VC investing for 15 years, so am rarely surprised when it comes to this topic - but this way of putting it actually makes me think differently about things. Thank you!