7 ms·

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every y

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worrying to see Karpathy leaving...

akmarinov 4y ago
Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”
- gruturo 4y ago
  > Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.
  - aidenn0 4y ago
    This sounds like solid evidence for the fact that he won't ever get his hands on a time machine.
    - sdenton4 4y ago
      Or it'll be like the time machine in Primer, where you can't go back before the time machine was turned on.
      - mstipetic 4y ago
        That kinda only works if we’re the only civilization in the universe, right? What if some other civilization discovered it a long time ago?
        sebzim4500 4y ago
        Then they might have been using it this whole time. If they kept to themselves we would have no idea.
        sdenton4 4y ago
        Something something 'light cone.' If the machine was turned on a million years ago in another star system and then brought to Earth, the Primer model would put you in the other star system when you climb out of the machine. And then you'd need to make your way back to Earth. (It's unclear to me whether you would continue aging while sitting in the box and waiting for a million years to go by in reverse... But I assume you would.) So I think the 'other civilization' thing only works if they're already approximately here with a running machine.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - andsoitis 4y ago
    I think we can tell for certain that time travel will never be invented because if it were to happen, then logically we’d already be experiencing people visiting us from the future.
    - alasdair_ 4y ago
      Hello! It’s me, your visitor from 22 minutes into the future!
      - andsoitis 4y ago
        Hi! In a few other threads today people claimed that they / one can time the stock market. Wanna start a trading venture with me? :-)
  - dron57 4y ago
    Since this is HN and we're playing the tbf game... To be fair he'd only have to hit the FTL goal and then FTL can be used as a time machine.
    - gruturo 4y ago
      Oh, good point!
- bitL 4y ago
  > Elon in 2028: “time machine!” We might well have one - back to the stone age based on the potential to escalate ongoing conflicts...
BluSyn 4y ago
I don't recall Tesla ever saying they were producing Optimus as a product any time soon. He's said prototype demo later this year. A prototype is very far from a finished product. As a product businesses/consumers can buy, at least 5+ years from now.
- 01100011 4y ago
  Production ready by 2023: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/08/elon-musk-says-tesla-is-aiming-to-start-production-on-optimus-next-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/08/elon-musk-says-tesla-is-aimi...
rlt 4y ago
I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors. Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory. That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.
- moralestapia 4y ago
  Yes, but Steve Jobs delivered. He was rude and whatnot, but far from a fraud.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    And Jobs' "reality distortion field" was primarily used to motivate / burn-out his team by demanding things that were technically very difficult but feasible (one of the original anecdotes was about reducing the boot-time for the original Macintosh), not something like solving AGI which FSD would ~apparently require.
    - 01100011 4y ago
      I fully believe Elon and Jim Keller truly thought the deep learning HW delivered by Tesla was capable of self-driving in the early 201x time frame because, frankly, a lot of us did. More than likely, like the rest of us, they slowly came to see that the problem was much more difficult, and deep learning much less capable, than we had originally envisioned. Most of us didn't make a bunch of stupid promises to shareholders based on the original, incorrect assumptions though. Unlike Elon, we're able to admit we were wrong.
      - kaba0 4y ago
        Betting on vision-only self-driving was still a very bad bet, not only in hindsight. The competition all added additional sensors.
      - mrmlz 4y ago
        As someone who has worked for almost a decade with safety critical software, system design and functional safety analyses (both aerospace and automotive) etc. I don't think I ever met anyone who believed they would be anywhere near FSD/Level-5 what-have-you in the timeframe they presented. The only ones I met who thought so was managers and software developers and ML-people, i.e. people who has never in their life seen the level of effort it actually takes to get something qualified for RTCA or other safety standards.
shaklee3 4y ago
he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.
- elkos 4y ago
  Do elaborate please. I always get that feeling but I'm not able to put it in words.
  - shaklee3 4y ago
    I've elaborated and gotten shouted down enough on the old threads that it's not worth repeating the whole thing. tldr: 1) the beams are not full, so many users are getting unrealistic service since they're not doing traffic shaping in those areas yet. 2) the areas that are full are seeing significantly worse speeds and latencies. see Reddit. 3) Elon said <20 ms pings will be normal. they're averaging 30-40ms in full areas. 4) it's not financially viable without many more users, higher costs, and cheaper launches.
- sebzim4500 4y ago
  Isn't starlink pretty good though? I'm in a city, but I know people in rural areas that rave about it.
  - shaklee3 4y ago
    starlink is great for some. my comments aren't necessarily about whether it's overall good or not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32095920 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32095920
paulmendoza 4y ago
Elon said they might have a prototype in 2022. He didn’t give any other timelines.
- 01100011 4y ago
  He said production ready by 2023. Read my other reply to a sibling post which already made the same claim you did.

akmarinov 4y ago

Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”

gruturo 4y ago
> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.
- aidenn0 4y ago
  This sounds like solid evidence for the fact that he won't ever get his hands on a time machine.
  - sdenton4 4y ago
    Or it'll be like the time machine in Primer, where you can't go back before the time machine was turned on.
    - mstipetic 4y ago
      That kinda only works if we’re the only civilization in the universe, right? What if some other civilization discovered it a long time ago?
      - sebzim4500 4y ago
        Then they might have been using it this whole time. If they kept to themselves we would have no idea.
      - sdenton4 4y ago
        Something something 'light cone.' If the machine was turned on a million years ago in another star system and then brought to Earth, the Primer model would put you in the other star system when you climb out of the machine. And then you'd need to make your way back to Earth. (It's unclear to me whether you would continue aging while sitting in the box and waiting for a million years to go by in reverse... But I assume you would.) So I think the 'other civilization' thing only works if they're already approximately here with a running machine.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- andsoitis 4y ago
  I think we can tell for certain that time travel will never be invented because if it were to happen, then logically we’d already be experiencing people visiting us from the future.
  - alasdair_ 4y ago
    Hello! It’s me, your visitor from 22 minutes into the future!
    - andsoitis 4y ago
      Hi! In a few other threads today people claimed that they / one can time the stock market. Wanna start a trading venture with me? :-)
- dron57 4y ago
  Since this is HN and we're playing the tbf game... To be fair he'd only have to hit the FTL goal and then FTL can be used as a time machine.
  - gruturo 4y ago
    Oh, good point!
bitL 4y ago
> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” We might well have one - back to the stone age based on the potential to escalate ongoing conflicts...

BluSyn 4y ago

I don't recall Tesla ever saying they were producing Optimus as a product any time soon. He's said prototype demo later this year. A prototype is very far from a finished product. As a product businesses/consumers can buy, at least 5+ years from now.

01100011 4y ago
Production ready by 2023: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/08/elon-musk-says-tesla-is-aiming-to-start-production-on-optimus-next-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/08/elon-musk-says-tesla-is-aimi...

rlt 4y ago

I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors. Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory. That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.

moralestapia 4y ago
Yes, but Steve Jobs delivered. He was rude and whatnot, but far from a fraud.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  And Jobs' "reality distortion field" was primarily used to motivate / burn-out his team by demanding things that were technically very difficult but feasible (one of the original anecdotes was about reducing the boot-time for the original Macintosh), not something like solving AGI which FSD would ~apparently require.
  - 01100011 4y ago
    I fully believe Elon and Jim Keller truly thought the deep learning HW delivered by Tesla was capable of self-driving in the early 201x time frame because, frankly, a lot of us did. More than likely, like the rest of us, they slowly came to see that the problem was much more difficult, and deep learning much less capable, than we had originally envisioned. Most of us didn't make a bunch of stupid promises to shareholders based on the original, incorrect assumptions though. Unlike Elon, we're able to admit we were wrong.
    - kaba0 4y ago
      Betting on vision-only self-driving was still a very bad bet, not only in hindsight. The competition all added additional sensors.
    - mrmlz 4y ago
      As someone who has worked for almost a decade with safety critical software, system design and functional safety analyses (both aerospace and automotive) etc. I don't think I ever met anyone who believed they would be anywhere near FSD/Level-5 what-have-you in the timeframe they presented. The only ones I met who thought so was managers and software developers and ML-people, i.e. people who has never in their life seen the level of effort it actually takes to get something qualified for RTCA or other safety standards.

shaklee3 4y ago

he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.

elkos 4y ago
Do elaborate please. I always get that feeling but I'm not able to put it in words.
- shaklee3 4y ago
  I've elaborated and gotten shouted down enough on the old threads that it's not worth repeating the whole thing. tldr: 1) the beams are not full, so many users are getting unrealistic service since they're not doing traffic shaping in those areas yet. 2) the areas that are full are seeing significantly worse speeds and latencies. see Reddit. 3) Elon said <20 ms pings will be normal. they're averaging 30-40ms in full areas. 4) it's not financially viable without many more users, higher costs, and cheaper launches.
sebzim4500 4y ago
Isn't starlink pretty good though? I'm in a city, but I know people in rural areas that rave about it.
- shaklee3 4y ago
  starlink is great for some. my comments aren't necessarily about whether it's overall good or not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32095920 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32095920

paulmendoza 4y ago

Elon said they might have a prototype in 2022. He didn’t give any other timelines.

01100011 4y ago
He said production ready by 2023. Read my other reply to a sibling post which already made the same claim you did.