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This is well written but also very alarmist. There are supply chain issues, but in the west they're limited to certain industries. Amazon orders still arrive in

This is well written but also very alarmist. There are supply chain issues, but in the west they're limited to certain industries. Amazon orders still arrive in two days. My grocery store is still stocked full. Inflation sucks, and so does the stock market, but we're in the middle of a European war and just out of a global pandemic. Demand has already risen to pre-pandemic levels, so supply will eventually reorient to meet it. All things considered, the economy is still doing pretty great!

jfim 4y ago
There's all kinds of stuff that's affected though. For example, if you want a 16x7 garage door, you're looking at getting it in November or December of this year if you're ordering now [1]. [1] https://www.homedepot.com/p/Clopay-Classic-Collection-16-ft-x-7-ft-Non-Insulated-Solid-White-Garage-Door-HDB-SW-SOL/204598371 https://www.homedepot.com/p/Clopay-Classic-Collection-16-ft-...
- gedy 4y ago
  I just find this really silly that something as simple as a garage door takes 5 months and held up by a global supply chain, given this is the United States and our history of steel and machinery manufacturing.
  - jazzyjackson 4y ago
    > our history you said it ;)
  - tinco 4y ago
    Carter and Reagan and basically every president afterwards decided that it was better for the economy if the USA didn't have steel plants. They were probably right too unfortunately.
- majormajor 4y ago
  The stuff I've seen issues with have fairly clear demand-side stories behind them. For instance: everything home construction or renovation-wise. A lot of things that were planned around a certain level of demand is struggling to keep up with a boom. "Supply is unlimited" was 'fleddr's impression of the old status quo, but I don't think that was ever accurate. I think demand was predictable and well-planned-for is a better description of what the status quo was. Historical supply constraints showed themselves in areas like console launches - a certain level was planned for, and it wouldn't be economical to meet that all on day 1 vs a lower steady-state production, for instance. Covid-induced behavioral changes shifted a lot of demand around very rapidly. We are learning that the system can't respond instantly, but: * how surprising is that, and is it really something that could realistically be avoided in the future in case of other major instantaneous changes? Investing a lot of money in new garage door production right now is a big gamble - what happens if you clear that backlog and demand settles back to historical levels? * and, how concerning should that be? Is it indicative of permanent societal decline or future failure? That's the part I'd consider alarmist and poorly supported based on what we've seen so far. Many sorts of leisure goods, grocery store items, etc, have nearly fully recovered compared to summer of 2020 shortages. My amazon orders anecdotally mostly are coming in 1 day. Not all of them have, but which way do we think it'll go?
ev1 4y ago
> Amazon orders still arrive in two days. Mine have been up to a week now. Prime stuff shipping 5-9 days, only very few select items show up in 2 days. Since 2020 or so the "FREE 2-day shipping" has been replaced with "Free Prime shipping" in the UI and I no longer see 2-day promises. Most "basic needs" items are often 3-4 weeks out or "in stock soon" > My grocery store is still stocked full I won't starve, but it's weird noticing a lot of holes in the shelves. They're stocked, but missing certain flavours or product lines. Sure there are lots of other energy drink options, but I can't find Mountain Dew Energy in cherry limeade and haven't been able to for 3 weeks now.
- 300bps 4y ago
  Prime stuff shipping 5-9 days Most things I order from Amazon arrive the same day or overnight. A tiny minority takes 24 hours. but I can't find Mountain Dew Energy in cherry limeade and haven't been able to for 3 weeks now. That’s the universe doing you a favor haha
- b112 4y ago
  I wonder where this is. Europe? I'm in Eastern Canada, and I don't see any of this.
  - sgift 4y ago
    Not in Germany at least (for an European data point). I get my prime orders usually in one or two days and the estimated date at the checkout is usually correct.
  - ev1 4y ago
    SF. It depends on the item, some things still arrive within 2, but a lot more are wildly variable now. - I have a Baseus USB power bank that was ordered yesterday, arriving next Friday. - I have some ESP32 kits that has gotten this multiple days in a row: Your package is on the way but running late. We’re sorry for the delay. Now arriving tomorrow by 10 PM. - USB cable from prime day, amazon basics brand, no shipping ETA, no prediction, and "not yet shipped" - Random assortments of things like a gigabit switch, common equipment, cat6 cables, screwdriver: https://i.ibb.co/dtMRDVy/image.png https://i.ibb.co/dtMRDVy/image.png I don't envy the Amazon people though. Already seeing pileups in the mailroom, floor to ceiling boxes dumped on the floor, every delivery locker filled.
Dove 4y ago
> My grocery store is still stocked full. Without invalidating your larger point that getting something to eat is generally a non-issue, there is nonetheless one group in the US for whom the food shortage is at this very moment acute, national in scale, and unprecedented in recent memory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_infant_formula_shortage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_infant_form...
- sarchertech 4y ago
  I live in what that article lists as one of the 3 hardest hit states, and while it has been annoying, my 9 month old has never ran out of formula. We've had to make an extra trip to another grocery store on a few occasions, and we've had to substitute brands a few times.
- NavinF 4y ago
  Oh that’s been going on for a while thanks to the tariffs and ban on European formula.
bool3max 4y ago
Calling the Russia-Ukraine conflict an "European war" is blowing it entirely out of proportion.
- UncleEntity 4y ago
  Yet another European war?

jfim 4y ago

There's all kinds of stuff that's affected though. For example, if you want a 16x7 garage door, you're looking at getting it in November or December of this year if you're ordering now [1]. [1] https://www.homedepot.com/p/Clopay-Classic-Collection-16-ft-x-7-ft-Non-Insulated-Solid-White-Garage-Door-HDB-SW-SOL/204598371 https://www.homedepot.com/p/Clopay-Classic-Collection-16-ft-...

gedy 4y ago
I just find this really silly that something as simple as a garage door takes 5 months and held up by a global supply chain, given this is the United States and our history of steel and machinery manufacturing.
- jazzyjackson 4y ago
  > our history you said it ;)
- tinco 4y ago
  Carter and Reagan and basically every president afterwards decided that it was better for the economy if the USA didn't have steel plants. They were probably right too unfortunately.
majormajor 4y ago
The stuff I've seen issues with have fairly clear demand-side stories behind them. For instance: everything home construction or renovation-wise. A lot of things that were planned around a certain level of demand is struggling to keep up with a boom. "Supply is unlimited" was 'fleddr's impression of the old status quo, but I don't think that was ever accurate. I think demand was predictable and well-planned-for is a better description of what the status quo was. Historical supply constraints showed themselves in areas like console launches - a certain level was planned for, and it wouldn't be economical to meet that all on day 1 vs a lower steady-state production, for instance. Covid-induced behavioral changes shifted a lot of demand around very rapidly. We are learning that the system can't respond instantly, but: * how surprising is that, and is it really something that could realistically be avoided in the future in case of other major instantaneous changes? Investing a lot of money in new garage door production right now is a big gamble - what happens if you clear that backlog and demand settles back to historical levels? * and, how concerning should that be? Is it indicative of permanent societal decline or future failure? That's the part I'd consider alarmist and poorly supported based on what we've seen so far. Many sorts of leisure goods, grocery store items, etc, have nearly fully recovered compared to summer of 2020 shortages. My amazon orders anecdotally mostly are coming in 1 day. Not all of them have, but which way do we think it'll go?

ev1 4y ago

> Amazon orders still arrive in two days. Mine have been up to a week now. Prime stuff shipping 5-9 days, only very few select items show up in 2 days. Since 2020 or so the "FREE 2-day shipping" has been replaced with "Free Prime shipping" in the UI and I no longer see 2-day promises. Most "basic needs" items are often 3-4 weeks out or "in stock soon" > My grocery store is still stocked full I won't starve, but it's weird noticing a lot of holes in the shelves. They're stocked, but missing certain flavours or product lines. Sure there are lots of other energy drink options, but I can't find Mountain Dew Energy in cherry limeade and haven't been able to for 3 weeks now.

300bps 4y ago
Prime stuff shipping 5-9 days Most things I order from Amazon arrive the same day or overnight. A tiny minority takes 24 hours. but I can't find Mountain Dew Energy in cherry limeade and haven't been able to for 3 weeks now. That’s the universe doing you a favor haha
b112 4y ago
I wonder where this is. Europe? I'm in Eastern Canada, and I don't see any of this.
- sgift 4y ago
  Not in Germany at least (for an European data point). I get my prime orders usually in one or two days and the estimated date at the checkout is usually correct.
- ev1 4y ago
  SF. It depends on the item, some things still arrive within 2, but a lot more are wildly variable now. - I have a Baseus USB power bank that was ordered yesterday, arriving next Friday. - I have some ESP32 kits that has gotten this multiple days in a row: Your package is on the way but running late. We’re sorry for the delay. Now arriving tomorrow by 10 PM. - USB cable from prime day, amazon basics brand, no shipping ETA, no prediction, and "not yet shipped" - Random assortments of things like a gigabit switch, common equipment, cat6 cables, screwdriver: https://i.ibb.co/dtMRDVy/image.png https://i.ibb.co/dtMRDVy/image.png I don't envy the Amazon people though. Already seeing pileups in the mailroom, floor to ceiling boxes dumped on the floor, every delivery locker filled.

Dove 4y ago

> My grocery store is still stocked full. Without invalidating your larger point that getting something to eat is generally a non-issue, there is nonetheless one group in the US for whom the food shortage is at this very moment acute, national in scale, and unprecedented in recent memory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_infant_formula_shortage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_infant_form...

sarchertech 4y ago
I live in what that article lists as one of the 3 hardest hit states, and while it has been annoying, my 9 month old has never ran out of formula. We've had to make an extra trip to another grocery store on a few occasions, and we've had to substitute brands a few times.
NavinF 4y ago
Oh that’s been going on for a while thanks to the tariffs and ban on European formula.

bool3max 4y ago

Calling the Russia-Ukraine conflict an "European war" is blowing it entirely out of proportion.

UncleEntity 4y ago
Yet another European war?